Premier League 2025-2026: Bournemouth vs Leeds Prediction - 22 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Bournemouth

Home Team
53%
VS

Leeds

Away Team
24%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 10.1
Expected Shots: 24.1
Expected Spread: +0.3

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 33 21 7 5 63 26 37 70
2 Man City 32 20 7 5 65 29 36 67
3 Man United 33 16 10 7 58 45 13 58
4 Aston Villa 33 17 7 9 47 41 6 58
5 Liverpool 33 16 7 10 54 43 11 55
6 Chelsea 33 13 9 11 53 42 11 48
7 Brentford 33 13 9 11 48 44 4 48
8 Bournemouth 33 11 15 7 50 50 0 48
9 Brighton 33 12 11 10 45 39 6 47
10 Everton 33 13 8 12 40 39 1 47
11 Sunderland 33 12 10 11 36 40 -4 46
12 Fulham 33 13 6 14 43 46 -3 45
13 Crystal Palace 32 11 10 11 35 36 -1 43
14 Newcastle 33 12 6 15 46 49 -3 42
15 Leeds 33 9 12 12 42 49 -7 39
16 Nott'm Forest 33 9 9 15 36 45 -9 36
17 West Ham 33 8 9 16 40 57 -17 33
18 Tottenham 33 7 10 16 42 53 -11 31
19 Burnley 33 4 8 21 34 67 -33 20
20 Wolves 33 3 8 22 24 61 -37 17

Recent Trends

Bournemouth W W D D D

  • Last Match: W vs Newcastle (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Arsenal (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Man United (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Burnley (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Brentford (Goals: 0 - 0)

Leeds W W D D L

  • Last Match: W vs Wolves (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Man United (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Brentford (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Sunderland (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Bournemouth

xG (avg) 2.21
xGA (avg) 1.02
Clean Sheets 2

Leeds

xG (avg) 1.67
xGA (avg) 1.45
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

Bournemouth are slight but clear favourites at home, with a 53.0% chance of victory compared to Leeds’ 24.0%, and a 23.0% probability of a draw. The model leans towards a home win and an under 2.5 goals prediction, despite both sides’ recent attacking displays. In the table, Bournemouth are flying high in 8th on 48 points, while Leeds sit 15th on 39 points and still glancing over their shoulders at the relegation battle.

Match Analysis

Bournemouth come into this on a superb run: back‑to‑back away wins at Newcastle and Arsenal (both 2-1) and a 2-2 home draw with Manchester United. They’ve shown resilience and edge in big moments, with 6 goals scored in those three outings and only one defeat in their last five. The underlying numbers underline that this isn’t a fluke – they’re averaging 2.21 expected goals for and just 1.018 against across the last five matches, plus two clean sheets in that spell. Leeds also arrive in decent shape, unbeaten in three with a 3-0 home win over Wolves, a statement 2-1 victory at Old Trafford, and a 0-0 home draw with Brentford. That’s 5 goals scored and only 1 conceded in their last three, including two clean sheets. Their advanced metrics, with 1.668 xG created and 1.45 xG conceded on average over the last five, suggest a team that is more open than Bournemouth and occasionally vulnerable, but still capable of carving out chances.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Bournemouth
Goals in last 5 matches
Leeds
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans narrowly towards under 2.5, with a 48.0% probability on the over and thus a small edge on the under 2.5 call overall. Two of Bournemouth’s last three games have gone over 2.5 goals (3, 3, and 4 total goals), while two of Leeds’ three have finished under (3, 3, and 0). Bournemouth’s recent average of 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded, paired with Leeds’ 1.2 for and 1.0 against, and both teams’ xG figures, point to a tight contest where the over 2.5 prediction is tempting but not favoured.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Bournemouth
Corners in last 5 matches
Leeds
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at an expected total of 10.12, which fits the recent patterns of both sides. Bournemouth’s last three have produced 5, 11 and 14 corners in total, with the Cherries occasionally allowing a lot of opposition deliveries, as seen against Arsenal and United. Leeds’ recent matches brought 11, 15 and 8 corners, reflecting a side that attacks with width and also allows opponents to get forward, so the predicted corners figure around double digits looks well balanced.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Bournemouth
Shots in last 5 matches
Leeds
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this game is 24.12 in total, suggesting a lively but not chaotic afternoon in front of goal. Bournemouth’s last three have seen combined shot counts of 24, 23 and 30, while Leeds’ games produced totals of 24, 35 and 20, with both creating and conceding decent volumes. That shots prediction aligns neatly with Bournemouth’s strong 2.21 xG average and Leeds’ 1.668 xG, hinting at enough efforts to threaten but not necessarily a goal-fest.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Bournemouth wins by X goals. Negative = Leeds wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Bournemouth vs Leeds with expected spread of +0.3
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Bournemouth vs Leeds
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is Bournemouth -0.35, meaning the home side are expected to edge the game by roughly a third of a goal. Across their last three, Bournemouth’s goal difference is +2 (6 scored, 4 conceded), compared to Leeds’ +4 (5 scored, 1 conceded), but Bournemouth have built that against stronger opposition and now have home advantage. The expected spread ties in with the 53.0% home‑win probability and Bournemouth’s better defensive metrics, even if Leeds’ recent results keep it close.

Final Prediction

Bournemouth’s superior xG profile, recent scalps of Arsenal and Newcastle, and home advantage give them a narrow but real edge over a resurgent Leeds. The key battle to watch will be Bournemouth’s sharp attacking movement against a Leeds defence that has been solid of late but still allows chances according to the numbers. If Bournemouth maintain their recent efficiency in both boxes, the prediction of a home win and a low‑scoring contest should hold.

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