Premier League 2025-2026: Bournemouth vs Man City Prediction - 19 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Bournemouth

Home Team
22%
VS

Man City

Away Team
58%
Draw: 20%
Over 2.5: 59%
Under 2.5: 41%
Goal: 59%
No Goal: 41%
Expected Corners: 9.9
Expected Shots: 25.8
Expected Spread: -0.6

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 37 25 7 5 69 26 43 82
2 Man City 36 23 8 5 75 32 43 77
3 Man United 37 19 11 7 66 50 16 68
4 Aston Villa 37 18 8 11 54 48 6 62
5 Liverpool 37 17 8 12 62 52 10 59
6 Bournemouth 36 13 16 7 56 52 4 55
7 Brighton 37 14 11 12 52 43 9 53
8 Brentford 37 14 10 13 54 51 3 52
9 Sunderland 37 13 12 12 40 47 -7 51
10 Chelsea 36 13 10 13 55 49 6 49
11 Newcastle 37 14 7 16 53 53 0 49
12 Everton 37 13 10 14 47 49 -2 49
13 Fulham 37 14 7 16 45 51 -6 49
14 Leeds 37 11 14 12 49 53 -4 47
15 Crystal Palace 37 11 12 14 40 49 -9 45
16 Nott'm Forest 37 11 10 16 47 50 -3 43
17 Tottenham 36 9 11 16 46 55 -9 38
18 West Ham 37 9 9 19 43 65 -22 36
19 Burnley 37 4 9 24 37 74 -37 21
20 Wolves 37 3 10 24 26 67 -41 19

Recent Trends

Bournemouth W W D W W

  • Last Match: W vs Fulham (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Leeds (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Newcastle (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Arsenal (Goals: 2 - 1)

Man City W W D W W

  • Last Match: W vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Brentford (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Everton (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Burnley (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Arsenal (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Bournemouth

xG (avg) 2.02
xGA (avg) 1.08
Clean Sheets 2

Man City

xG (avg) 2.33
xGA (avg) 1.15
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

Man City are favoured to take all three points on the south coast, with a 58.0% chance of an away win against a Bournemouth side given a 22.0% shot at victory (20.0% draw). City arrive in second place on 77 points, chasing leaders Arsenal, while Bournemouth sit an impressive sixth on 55 points after a strong campaign. The game leans towards an open contest, with an over 2.5 prediction backed by a 59.0% probability.

Match Analysis

Bournemouth come into this with real momentum: back‑to‑back wins over Crystal Palace (3-0) and Fulham (1-0) followed a 2-2 draw with Leeds. Those results underline a side that can control games at home – they’ve generated 17 and 16 shots in their last two at the Vitality and racked up 12 and 7 corners – while tightening up at the back, with two clean sheets in their last three. Over the last five matches they’re averaging 1.6 goals scored and just 1.0 conceded, supported by 2.024 expected goals created and only 1.08 against, suggesting their upturn is no fluke. City’s recent form is equally convincing. They’ve brushed aside Crystal Palace and Brentford 3-0 in successive home games and played out a wild 3-3 draw at Everton. Across their last five, they average 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, with a hefty 2.332 xG for and 1.15 xG against, plus three clean sheets, reflecting a team that still controls territory and chance quality. Second in the table and two points off Arsenal, they simply cannot afford a slip, which should translate into a front‑foot approach even away from home.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Bournemouth
Goals in last 5 matches
Man City
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards an over 2.5 prediction, with a 59.0% chance of the game producing at least three goals. Two of Bournemouth’s last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (3-0 vs Palace, 2-2 vs Leeds), while two of City’s last three have also cleared the line (3-0, 3-0, 3-3), hinting at attacking intent from both sides. With Bournemouth averaging 1.6 scored and 1.0 conceded, and City at 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded, backed by high xG numbers for both, the balance tilts towards over rather than under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Bournemouth
Corners in last 5 matches
Man City
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a fairly busy afternoon from the flag, with expected total corners at 9.94. Bournemouth’s last three have produced mixed but generally healthy counts – 14 vs Leeds (12-1), 8 vs Palace (7-1) and 13 at Fulham (2-11) – while City’s recent games have all reached at least 14 corners (14, 12, 14). Both teams like to attack, and City’s territorial dominance combined with Bournemouth’s willingness to push full-backs on suggests the predicted corners figure around 10 is well-founded.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Bournemouth
Shots in last 5 matches
Man City
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total stands at 25.76, which fits neatly with how both sides have been playing. Bournemouth’s last three have seen 27, 23 and 24 total shots, while City’s have produced 21, 29 and 35 – all comfortably above 20. Given City’s 2.332 xG average and Bournemouth’s 2.024, a shots prediction in the mid‑20s is consistent with two proactive attacks that regularly turn possession into efforts on goal.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Bournemouth wins by X goals. Negative = Man City wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Bournemouth vs Man City with expected spread of -0.6
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Bournemouth vs Man City
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is -0.64 in favour of Man City, indicating the champions are expected to win by roughly two-thirds of a goal. Bournemouth’s last three show a +2 overall goal difference (6 scored, 2 conceded), but City’s recent +6 (9 scored, 3 conceded) underlines their greater firepower and control. That expected spread aligns with City’s 58.0% win probability and their superior attacking and defensive metrics, even against an in‑form Bournemouth.

Final Prediction

Man City have the edge thanks to their stronger underlying numbers, recent clean sheets and the added pressure of a title chase from second place. Bournemouth’s home form and growing confidence make them dangerous, but City’s ability to sustain high xG and shot volumes should tell over 90 minutes. Watch the flanks in particular: whoever wins the wide battles is likely to dictate both the shot count and, ultimately, the result.

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