Premier League 2025-2026: Bournemouth vs Man United Prediction - 20 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Bournemouth

Home Team
36%
VS

Man United

Away Team
39%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 60%
Under 2.5: 40%
Goal: 64%
No Goal: 36%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 25.6

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 31 21 7 3 61 22 39 70
2 Man City 30 18 7 5 60 28 32 61
3 Man United 30 15 9 6 54 41 13 54
4 Aston Villa 30 15 6 9 40 37 3 51
5 Liverpool 30 14 7 9 49 40 9 49
6 Chelsea 30 13 9 8 53 35 18 48
7 Brentford 30 13 6 11 46 42 4 45
8 Everton 30 12 7 11 34 35 -1 43
9 Newcastle 30 12 6 12 43 43 0 42
10 Bournemouth 30 9 14 7 44 46 -2 41
11 Fulham 30 12 5 13 40 43 -3 41
12 Brighton 30 10 10 10 39 36 3 40
13 Sunderland 30 10 10 10 30 35 -5 40
14 Crystal Palace 30 10 9 11 33 35 -2 39
15 Leeds 30 7 11 12 37 48 -11 32
16 Tottenham 30 7 9 14 40 47 -7 30
17 Nott'm Forest 30 7 8 15 28 43 -15 29
18 West Ham 30 7 8 15 36 55 -19 29
19 Burnley 30 4 8 18 32 58 -26 20
20 Wolves 31 3 8 20 24 54 -30 17

Recent Trends

Bournemouth D D D D W

  • Last Match: D vs Burnley (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Brentford (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Sunderland (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs West Ham (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Everton (Goals: 2 - 1)

Man United W L W W D

  • Last Match: W vs Aston Villa (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Newcastle (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Everton (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs West Ham (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Bournemouth

xG (avg) 2.09
xGA (avg) 0.99
Clean Sheets 3

Man United

xG (avg) 1.43
xGA (avg) 1.12
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Manchester United are slight favourites here, with a 39.0% chance of an away win compared to Bournemouth’s 36.0%, and a 25.0% probability of a draw. United come into this sitting 3rd on 54 points, chasing the Champions League places, while Bournemouth are 10th on 41 points and part of a congested mid‑table. The game leans towards goals: the model backs over 2.5 with a 60.0% probability and expects both teams to score (64.0% chance of a “goal” outcome).

Match Analysis

Bournemouth’s form line looks solid if unspectacular: three straight draws (0-0 at Burnley, 0-0 at home to Brentford, 1-1 at home to Sunderland). The story behind those results is of a side creating plenty but not finishing – they racked up 22, 13 and 21 shots respectively, and their last five games show an average of 2.094 expected goals scored per match, yet only 1.6 actually converted. Defensively they’ve been reliable, with three clean sheets in their last five and only 1.2 goals conceded on average, backed by an impressively low 0.994 xG conceded. United arrive with more volatility but more edge in the final scorelines: wins over Aston Villa (3-1) and Crystal Palace (2-1) bookend a narrow 2-1 defeat at Newcastle. All three of those matches produced tight shot counts, but United came out on top territorially against Villa and Palace, taking 16 and 20 shots respectively. Over their last five, they’re averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, with 1.432 xG for and 1.116 xG against – numbers that suggest a team that usually creates just enough, but can be got at. Those advanced metrics paint the picture of Bournemouth as the more controlled side, especially at the back, and United as the more clinical in moments but less consistent defensively. With United ahead in the table and chasing a top‑five finish, their marginally sharper attack is what swings the probability in their favour, even against a Bournemouth team that has been out‑creating recent opponents.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Bournemouth
Goals in last 5 matches
Man United
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is favoured at 60.0%, despite Bournemouth’s recent low‑scoring run. All three of Bournemouth’s last matches have gone under 2.5 (0, 0 and 2 total goals), but the underlying numbers – 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded on average, plus strong xG – hint at more open games than the scorelines suggest. United’s last three all finished over 2.5 (4, 3 and 3 total goals), and their combination of 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game supports the expectation of an open contest rather than an under 2.5 grind.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Bournemouth
Corners in last 5 matches
Man United
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model’s corners prediction sits at 9.76 total corners, which fits the way both sides have been playing. Bournemouth’s recent games produced 13, 7 and 10 corners, driven by their high shot volume and willingness to attack in wide areas. United’s last three yielded 12, 6 and 8 corners; they don’t always rack up huge numbers, but their front‑foot approach against Villa and Palace still generated set‑piece pressure. In a match where both teams are likely to push on, the predicted corners figure around ten looks in line with their current styles.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Bournemouth
Shots in last 5 matches
Man United
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 25.56, and the recent evidence backs that up. Bournemouth alone have managed 22, 13 and 21 shots in their last three, regularly peppering the opposition goal, while allowing 15, 5 and 8 the other way. United’s last three show 16, 14 and 20 attempts, with 9, 12 and 8 faced, suggesting a game that should comfortably clear the mid‑20s in any shots prediction. Those volumes marry well with both sides’ xG profiles, pointing towards a busy afternoon for both goalkeepers.

Final Prediction

United are given the slight edge because of their higher league standing, recent wins over strong opposition and their knack for turning balanced games into victories. Bournemouth’s underlying numbers and defensive organisation mean this is far from straightforward, though. The key factor to watch is whether Bournemouth’s chance creation finally gets rewarded, or whether United’s sharper finishing in big moments again proves the difference.

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