Premier League 2025-2026: Bournemouth vs Sunderland Prediction - 28 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Bournemouth

Home Team
76%
VS

Sunderland

Away Team
11%
Draw: 13%
Over 2.5: 54%
Under 2.5: 46%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Shots: 25.1

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 28 18 7 3 56 21 35 61
2 Man City 27 17 5 5 56 25 31 56
3 Aston Villa 27 15 6 6 38 28 10 51
4 Man United 27 13 9 5 48 37 11 48
5 Chelsea 27 12 9 6 48 31 17 45
6 Liverpool 27 13 6 8 42 35 7 45
7 Brentford 27 12 4 11 40 37 3 40
8 Bournemouth 27 9 11 7 43 45 -2 38
9 Everton 27 10 7 10 29 31 -2 37
10 Fulham 27 11 4 12 38 41 -3 37
11 Newcastle 27 10 6 11 38 39 -1 36
12 Sunderland 27 9 9 9 28 33 -5 36
13 Crystal Palace 27 9 8 10 29 32 -3 35
14 Brighton 27 8 10 9 36 34 2 34
15 Leeds 27 7 10 10 37 46 -9 31
16 Tottenham 27 7 8 12 37 41 -4 29
17 Nott'm Forest 27 7 6 14 25 39 -14 27
18 West Ham 27 6 7 14 32 49 -17 25
19 Burnley 27 4 7 16 29 52 -23 19
20 Wolves 28 1 7 20 18 51 -33 10

Recent Trends

Bournemouth D W D W W

  • Last Match: D vs West Ham (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Everton (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Aston Villa (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Wolves (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Liverpool (Goals: 3 - 2)

Sunderland L L L W L

  • Last Match: L vs Fulham (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Liverpool (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Burnley (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs West Ham (Goals: 1 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Bournemouth

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.82
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.00
# Clean Sheets: 2

Sunderland

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.89
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.92
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Bournemouth are strong favourites here, with a 76.0% probability of taking all three points against Sunderland, who are given just an 11.0% chance, with the draw at 13.0%. The model points firmly to a home win and an over 2.5 goals prediction, with a 54.0% chance of at least three goals. In the table, Bournemouth sit 8th on 38 points, just two behind 7th-placed Brentford, while Sunderland are 12th on 36 points and drifting away from the European picture.

Match Analysis

Bournemouth come into this on a solid run: unbeaten in three, with a win at Everton sandwiched between resilient draws at West Ham (0-0) and at home to Aston Villa (1-1). They’ve shown they can control games, outshooting Villa 20–7 and winning the corner battle 11–4, while also grinding out a clean sheet at West Ham despite facing 20 shots. Over the last five matches they’re averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, underpinned by 1.82 expected goals for and just 0.996 expected goals against – numbers that suggest a side creating consistently and restricting opponents to half-chances. Sunderland arrive in far poorer shape, on a three-game losing streak: 1–3 at home to Fulham, 0–1 at home to Liverpool, and 0–3 away at Arsenal. The pattern is worrying: 5–16 shots at Arsenal, 11–23 against Liverpool, and even in the Fulham defeat they failed to turn parity in shots (12–12) into points. Across their last five games, they’ve averaged only 0.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, with xG figures of 0.886 for and 1.916 against – a clear sign of an attack lacking cutting edge and a defence under heavy pressure. That imbalance, set against Bournemouth’s sharper recent numbers, underpins the heavy tilt towards the hosts.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Bournemouth
Goals in last 5 matches
Sunderland
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction edges it here at 54.0%, with the data hinting at a game that could open up. Two of Bournemouth’s last three matches have stayed under 2.5 goals (0–0 vs West Ham, 1–1 vs Villa), but their five-game averages of 2.0 scored and 1.8 conceded show they’re usually involved in more open contests, backed by strong attacking xG. Sunderland, meanwhile, have seen two of their last three go over 2.5 (1–3 vs Fulham, 0–3 vs Arsenal), reflecting their tendency to concede multiple goals; their 2.0 goals against average and high xG conceded support the over rather than an under 2.5 outcome.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Bournemouth
Shots in last 5 matches
Sunderland
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
With expected shots at 25.08 in total, the shots prediction is for a match where Bournemouth do most of the firing. The Cherries’ last three have featured 10, 11, and 20 attempts, while they’ve also allowed 20 and 16 shots in two of those games, indicating a generally open shot environment. Sunderland, by contrast, have been on the back foot: they’ve faced 12, 23, and 16 shots in their last three, and created just 5 at Arsenal, in line with their low attacking xG. The overall volume should be healthy, with Bournemouth’s more efficient attack likely to turn a greater share of those efforts into real chances.

Final Prediction

Bournemouth’s edge lies in their balance: a side creating close to two expected goals per game while limiting opponents, up against a Sunderland team short of confidence, goals, and defensive solidity. With home advantage and superior recent form, they are well placed to justify the strong win probability. The key factor to watch will be Sunderland’s ability – or lack of it – to cope with sustained Bournemouth pressure, especially out wide where so many of the hosts’ shots and corners are likely to come from.

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