Premier League 2025-2026: Brentford vs Brighton Prediction - 21 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Brentford

Home Team
59%
VS

Brighton

Away Team
20%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 52%
Under 2.5: 48%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Shots: 24.2

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 27 17 7 3 52 20 32 58
2 Man City 26 16 5 5 54 24 30 53
3 Aston Villa 26 15 5 6 37 27 10 50
4 Man United 26 12 9 5 47 37 10 45
5 Chelsea 26 12 8 6 47 30 17 44
6 Liverpool 26 12 6 8 41 35 6 42
7 Brentford 26 12 4 10 40 35 5 40
8 Everton 26 10 7 9 29 30 -1 37
9 Bournemouth 26 9 10 7 43 45 -2 37
10 Newcastle 26 10 6 10 37 37 0 36
11 Sunderland 26 9 9 8 27 30 -3 36
12 Fulham 26 10 4 12 35 40 -5 34
13 Crystal Palace 26 8 8 10 28 32 -4 32
14 Brighton 26 7 10 9 34 34 0 31
15 Leeds 26 7 9 10 36 45 -9 30
16 Tottenham 26 7 8 11 36 37 -1 29
17 Nott'm Forest 26 7 6 13 25 38 -13 27
18 West Ham 26 6 6 14 32 49 -17 24
19 Burnley 26 4 6 16 28 51 -23 18
20 Wolves 27 1 7 19 18 50 -32 10

Recent Trends

Brentford D W W L L

  • Last Match: D vs Arsenal (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Newcastle (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Aston Villa (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Chelsea (Goals: 0 - 2)

Brighton L L D L D

  • Last Match: L vs Aston Villa (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Everton (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Fulham (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Bournemouth (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Brentford

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.22
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.37
# Clean Sheets: 1

Brighton

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.51
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.90
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Brentford are favoured to take all three points, with a 59.0% probability of a home win against Brighton, who are given a 20.0% chance, while the draw sits at 21.0%. The game leans towards an open contest, with an over 2.5 goals prediction at 52.0% probability. In the current Premier League table Brentford are 7th on 40 points, while Brighton sit 14th on 31 points.

Match Analysis

Brentford come into this one in strong form: a home draw with league leaders Arsenal (1-1) followed by impressive away wins at Newcastle (3-2) and Aston Villa (1-0). The results show versatility – they can trade blows in a high-scoring game, as at St James’ Park, or grind out a narrow victory like at Villa Park. Underlying numbers back this up: in their last five matches they’ve scored 1.6 goals per game while conceding only 0.8, with an even stronger attacking profile in xG terms at 2.216 expected goals for and 1.37 against. Brighton, by contrast, are struggling for momentum. They’ve lost back-to-back games by the same 0-1 scoreline against Aston Villa and Crystal Palace, and were held 1-1 at home by Everton. Across their last five they’re averaging just 1.0 goal scored and 1.6 conceded, with 1.512 xG created but 1.898 xG allowed per game, and no clean sheets in that spell. That combination of defensive vulnerability and slightly underperforming attack suggests why Brentford, solid at both ends recently, are seen as favourites.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Brentford
Goals in last 5 matches
Brighton
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to an over 2.5 prediction with a 52.0% probability, but recent scorelines show a mixed picture. Two of Brentford’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (3-2 vs Newcastle, 1-1 vs Arsenal stayed under), while all three of Brighton’s most recent games stayed under 2.5 (0-1, 0-1, 1-1). Even so, Brentford’s averages of 1.6 scored and 0.8 conceded, plus their 2.216 xG for, suggest they are consistently creating enough to turn this into a higher-scoring fixture if chances are taken.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Brentford
Shots in last 5 matches
Brighton
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.17, matching the evidence of recent matches for each team. Brentford games have featured 19, 27 and 33 shots in total, while Brighton’s have seen 24, 14 and 18, usually with opponents generating a good share of efforts. Given Brentford’s strong xG numbers and Brighton’s tendency to allow 1.898 xG per game, a shots prediction in the mid‑20s feels realistic for a match where both attacks should find opportunities.

Final Prediction

Brentford’s recent balance of results, stronger underlying numbers and higher league position give them a clear edge at home. Brighton’s lack of clean sheets and modest attacking output make it harder to trust them in a tight away fixture. A key factor to watch will be how Brighton cope with Brentford’s chance creation – if the hosts reach their usual xG levels, the home win and over 2.5 goals scenario becomes very likely.

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