Premier League 2025-2026: Brentford vs Crystal Palace Prediction - 17 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Brentford

Home Team
58%
VS

Crystal Palace

Away Team
21%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.9
Expected Shots: 24.1
Expected Spread: +0.6

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 36 24 7 5 68 26 42 79
2 Man City 36 23 8 5 75 32 43 77
3 Man United 36 18 11 7 63 48 15 65
4 Liverpool 36 17 8 11 60 48 12 59
5 Aston Villa 36 17 8 11 50 46 4 59
6 Bournemouth 36 13 16 7 56 52 4 55
7 Brighton 36 14 11 11 52 42 10 53
8 Brentford 36 14 9 13 52 49 3 51
9 Chelsea 36 13 10 13 55 49 6 49
10 Everton 36 13 10 13 46 46 0 49
11 Fulham 36 14 6 16 44 50 -6 48
12 Sunderland 36 12 12 12 37 46 -9 48
13 Newcastle 36 13 7 16 50 52 -2 46
14 Leeds 36 10 14 12 48 53 -5 44
15 Crystal Palace 36 11 11 14 38 47 -9 44
16 Nott'm Forest 36 11 10 15 45 47 -2 43
17 Tottenham 36 9 11 16 46 55 -9 38
18 West Ham 36 9 9 18 42 62 -20 36
19 Burnley 36 4 9 23 37 73 -36 21
20 Wolves 36 3 9 24 25 66 -41 18

Recent Trends

Brentford L W L D D

  • Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs West Ham (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Man United (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Fulham (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Everton (Goals: 2 - 2)

Crystal Palace L D L L D

  • Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Everton (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Bournemouth (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Liverpool (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs West Ham (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Brentford

xG (avg) 2.27
xGA (avg) 1.26
Clean Sheets 2

Crystal Palace

xG (avg) 1.12
xGA (avg) 1.87
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Brentford are favoured to take all three points at home, with a 58.0% chance of victory against Crystal Palace’s 21.0% and a 21.0% probability of a draw. The model points to a tight game on the scoreboard, with an under 2.5 goals prediction (48.0% chance for over 2.5) despite both sides usually creating a decent number of chances. In the table, Brentford sit 8th on 51 points, while Palace linger in 15th on 44, underlining the Bees’ stronger season.

Match Analysis

Brentford come into this on the back of a mixed but competitive run: a 3-0 defeat at Manchester City, a convincing 3-0 home win over West Ham, and a narrow 2-1 loss at Manchester United. Even in defeat, they have stayed in games on the shot count (12-11 at Old Trafford) and at home they’ve shown they can dominate, as they did against West Ham. Over the last five, they’ve averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, but the underlying numbers are even stronger, with 2.272 expected goals created and just 1.256 conceded per match, plus two clean sheets. Crystal Palace’s recent form is more concerning: a pair of 3-0 away defeats to Bournemouth and Man City, split by a 2-2 draw with Everton at Selhurst Park. They’ve struggled to keep things tight on the road, conceding three in both recent away trips and being out-shot 16-7 at Bournemouth and 15-6 at City. Over their last five, Palace are averaging just 1.0 goal scored and 2.4 conceded, with xG figures (1.122 for, 1.872 against) that confirm they’ve been second-best at both ends more often than not.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Brentford
Goals in last 5 matches
Crystal Palace
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction only carries a 48.0% probability, so the call is under 2.5, even though the model still expects both teams to score (55.0% “goal” probability). Interestingly, 3 out of 3 of Brentford’s recent matches finished with exactly three goals, and 2 of Palace’s last 3 also went over 2.5, but Palace’s struggling attack (1.0 goals per game, 1.122 xG) and Brentford’s improving defence (1.2 conceded, 1.256 xG against, two clean sheets) point towards a tighter affair here. The combination of solid home structure and Palace’s blunt edge away suggests goals may be at a premium despite the chances created.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Brentford
Corners in last 5 matches
Crystal Palace
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.9 total corners, which fits a game where Brentford will likely have more of the initiative without it becoming a siege. Across their last three, the Bees have seen corner counts of 2-10, 2-6 and 8-7, regularly allowing opponents opportunities but also racking them up when they get on the front foot. Palace’s recent figures (4-9, 5-10, 1-7) show them often pinned back, especially away, which supports the predicted corners total in a match where Brentford’s direct, crossing-heavy style should generate a fair number of set-piece situations.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Brentford
Shots in last 5 matches
Crystal Palace
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure sits at 24.12 efforts in total, consistent with both sides’ recent patterns. Brentford have been involved in matches with 29, 27 and 23 combined shots, reflecting their willingness to shoot and allow shots against when they open up. Palace’s last three have produced 21, 34 and 23 total shots, and with their xG at 1.122 for and 1.872 against, the shots prediction suggests a game tilted towards Brentford but with Palace still able to test the home defence.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Brentford wins by X goals. Negative = Crystal Palace wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Brentford vs Crystal Palace with expected spread of +0.6
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Brentford vs Crystal Palace
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is Brentford -0.61, meaning the expected spread has the hosts winning by a little over half a goal on average. In their last three, Brentford’s goal difference is exactly level (3 scored, 5 conceded but skewed by the City loss), whereas Palace are -6 across the same span, shipping three goals in both recent away outings. That recent defensive record, allied with Brentford’s stronger xG profile and the 58.0% home-win probability, backs the idea of a narrow but deserved home victory.

Final Prediction

Brentford’s edge in both results and underlying performance, especially at home, makes them rightful favourites against a Palace side that has leaked goals and struggled to create consistently on their travels. The key factor to watch will be how often Brentford can turn their superior xG and expected shots into clear chances; if they do, Palace’s fragile defence may not hold out long.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel