Premier League 2025-2026: Brentford vs Fulham Prediction - 18 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Brentford

Home Team
46%
VS

Fulham

Away Team
29%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 52%
Under 2.5: 48%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.9
Expected Shots: 25.3

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 32 21 7 4 62 24 38 70
2 Man City 31 19 7 5 63 28 35 64
3 Man United 32 15 10 7 57 45 12 55
4 Aston Villa 32 16 7 9 43 38 5 55
5 Liverpool 32 15 7 10 52 42 10 52
6 Chelsea 32 13 9 10 53 41 12 48
7 Brentford 32 13 8 11 48 44 4 47
8 Everton 32 13 8 11 39 37 2 47
9 Brighton 32 12 10 10 43 37 6 46
10 Sunderland 32 12 10 10 33 36 -3 46
11 Bournemouth 32 10 15 7 48 49 -1 45
12 Fulham 32 13 5 14 43 46 -3 44
13 Crystal Palace 31 11 9 11 35 36 -1 42
14 Newcastle 32 12 6 14 45 47 -2 42
15 Leeds 32 8 12 12 39 49 -10 36
16 Nott'm Forest 32 8 9 15 32 44 -12 33
17 West Ham 32 8 8 16 40 57 -17 32
18 Tottenham 32 7 9 16 40 51 -11 30
19 Burnley 32 4 8 20 33 63 -30 20
20 Wolves 32 3 8 21 24 58 -34 17

Recent Trends

Brentford D D D D W

  • Last Match: D vs Everton (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Leeds (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Wolves (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Bournemouth (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Burnley (Goals: 4 - 3)

Fulham L W D L W

  • Last Match: L vs Liverpool (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Burnley (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs West Ham (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Tottenham (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Brentford

xG (avg) 2.11
xGA (avg) 1.38
Clean Sheets 2

Fulham

xG (avg) 1.46
xGA (avg) 1.62
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Brentford are slight favourites at home with a 46.0% chance of victory, compared to Fulham’s 29.0% and a 25.0% probability of a draw. The model points to a home win and an over 2.5 prediction (52.0% chance), suggesting goals at the Gtech. In the table, Brentford sit 7th on 47 points, just three points and five places above 12th‑placed Fulham on 44 points.

Match Analysis

Brentford come into this derby on a run of three straight draws: 2-2 at home to Everton, 0-0 away at Leeds and 2-2 at home to Wolves. Those games underline a familiar pattern: Thomas Frank’s side are rarely outplayed, but they have struggled to turn good positions into wins. The underlying numbers are kinder than the scorelines – in their last five matches they’ve averaged 2.112 expected goals for but only 1.0 actual goal scored, hinting at wasteful finishing or strong goalkeeping against them. Defensively, 1.8 goals conceded from just 1.382 xG against shows they’ve been punished heavily by opponents’ chances. Fulham’s recent form has been similarly mixed: a deserved 3-1 home win over Burnley was sandwiched between a 0-0 at Nottingham Forest and a 2-0 defeat away to Liverpool. Marco Silva’s team are capable of controlling matches – they generated 22 shots against Burnley and went toe-to-toe with Liverpool with 18 efforts – but consistency remains an issue. Over the last five games they’ve averaged 1.458 xG for and 1.622 xG against, with 1.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, suggesting they are slightly more open than they would like and not fully capitalising on their attacking play.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Brentford
Goals in last 5 matches
Fulham
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards goals here, with an over 2.5 prediction at 52.0% probability. Two of Brentford’s last three games have produced four goals (2-2 vs Everton and 2-2 vs Wolves), with only the 0-0 at Leeds going under 2.5. Fulham have seen one of their last three go over (3-1 vs Burnley) and two under (0-0 at Forest, 0-2 at Liverpool). With both sides averaging 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded across their last five and posting healthy attacking xG figures (2.112 for Brentford and 1.458 for Fulham), the balance of evidence points slightly towards another open contest rather than an under 2.5 outcome.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Brentford
Corners in last 5 matches
Fulham
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.86, which fits with the recent data for both teams. Brentford’s last three matches have seen modest corner counts: 5 vs Everton (2-3), 8 at Leeds (2-6) and 6 vs Wolves (1-5), reflecting a side that builds attacks but doesn’t constantly pepper the byline. Fulham’s games have been a touch more active from set-piece positions, with 15 corners at Liverpool (9-6), 12 vs Burnley (6-6) and 9 at Forest (4-5). Given both teams’ willingness to attack without being relentlessly direct, a corners prediction around the 9–10 mark feels well supported.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Brentford
Shots in last 5 matches
Fulham
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 25.29 suggests a lively encounter but not a complete shoot-out. Brentford’s last three have yielded a combined 31 shots vs Everton (17-14), 20 at Leeds (6-14) and 23 vs Wolves (10-13), routinely putting them in or around that mid‑20s bracket. Fulham’s recent games have been similarly busy: 37 shots at Liverpool (19-18), 31 vs Burnley (22-9) and 16 at Forest (5-11). That volume aligns with their xG profiles and backs up a shots prediction in the mid‑20s, with both teams likely to trade chances throughout.

Final Prediction

Home advantage, stronger recent xG numbers and Brentford’s position just outside the European spots give the Bees a slight edge over their west London rivals. Fulham, however, have shown they can generate chances against anyone and will test a Brentford back line that hasn’t kept many clean sheets lately. The key battle to watch is Brentford’s attack against Fulham’s slightly vulnerable defence – if the hosts finally finish in line with their xG, this derby should tilt their way.

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