Premier League 2025-2026: Brentford vs Wolves Prediction - 16 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Brentford

Home Team
86%
VS

Wolves

Away Team
6%
Draw: 8%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Shots: 24.1

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 30 20 7 3 59 22 37 67
2 Man City 29 18 6 5 59 27 32 60
3 Man United 29 14 9 6 51 40 11 51
4 Aston Villa 29 15 6 8 39 34 5 51
5 Chelsea 29 13 9 7 53 34 19 48
6 Liverpool 29 14 6 9 48 39 9 48
7 Brentford 29 13 5 11 44 40 4 44
8 Everton 29 12 7 10 34 33 1 43
9 Bournemouth 29 9 13 7 44 46 -2 40
10 Fulham 29 12 4 13 40 43 -3 40
11 Sunderland 29 10 10 9 30 34 -4 40
12 Newcastle 29 11 6 12 42 43 -1 39
13 Crystal Palace 29 10 8 11 33 35 -2 38
14 Brighton 29 9 10 10 38 36 2 37
15 Leeds 29 7 10 12 37 48 -11 31
16 Tottenham 29 7 8 14 39 46 -7 29
17 Nott'm Forest 29 7 7 15 28 43 -15 28
18 West Ham 29 7 7 15 35 54 -19 28
19 Burnley 29 4 7 18 32 58 -26 19
20 Wolves 30 3 7 20 22 52 -30 16

Recent Trends

Brentford D W L D W

  • Last Match: D vs Bournemouth (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Burnley (Goals: 4 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Brighton (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Arsenal (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Newcastle (Goals: 3 - 2)

Wolves W W L D D

  • Last Match: W vs Liverpool (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Aston Villa (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Arsenal (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Brentford

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.98
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.13
# Clean Sheets: 1

Wolves

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.91
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.91
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Brentford are strong favourites here, with an 86.0% probability of a home win against bottom‑placed Wolves, who sit 20th with just 16 points from 30 games. Seventh‑placed Brentford (44 points from 29) are expected to make their superiority count, and the model leans towards an over 2.5 goals prediction at 50.0% probability. Both teams are more likely to score than not, with a 52.0% chance of “goal” (both teams to score).

Match Analysis

Brentford come into this on a mixed but competitive run: a 0-0 draw at Bournemouth, a wild 4-3 win at Burnley and a 0-2 home defeat to Brighton. They’ve tightened up at the back recently, conceding just one goal per game on average over their last five, and their underlying numbers are even stronger: 1.984 expected goals created per game against only 1.132 conceded. That suggests they’re consistently generating chances and, if anything, underperforming slightly in front of goal. Wolves, rock bottom and under real pressure, have at least shown fight. They’ve beaten Liverpool 2-1 and Aston Villa 2-0 at home in their last three, before a narrow 0-1 loss at Crystal Palace. But the numbers paint a more worrying picture: across their last five matches they’re scoring just 0.4 goals per game and conceding 1.0, with their expected goals for at only 0.912 and expected goals against up at 1.912. In short, they’ve been second best in most games and relying on efficiency and resilience rather than sustained attacking threat. Given those trends, Brentford’s superior chance creation and more balanced profile, especially at home, explain why they are such heavy favourites. Wolves’ struggle to create high‑quality chances away from home makes this a daunting trip.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Brentford
Goals in last 5 matches
Wolves
Goals in last 5 matches
The model tilts slightly towards an over 2.5 prediction, with a 50.0% probability. Only one of Brentford’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (the 4-3 at Burnley), with the other two finishing 0-0 and 0-2. All three of Wolves’ recent games have been under 2.5 (2-1, 2-0, 0-1), suggesting generally tighter scorelines. However, Brentford’s average of 0.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, combined with their healthy 1.984 xG for, points to a side that is creating enough to break matches open, especially against a Wolves defence allowing 1.912 xG per game.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Brentford
Shots in last 5 matches
Wolves
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.12, suggesting a game with a steady but not frantic flow of attempts. Brentford’s last three have seen combined shot counts of 18 (at Bournemouth), 28 (at Burnley) and 24 (vs Brighton), fitting neatly around the model’s shots prediction. Wolves’ matches have featured 23, 23 and 26 total shots, and their low attacking output (0.912 xG and just 0.4 goals per game) implies they may contribute fewer efforts than their hosts. With Brentford’s xG edge, most of the expected shots should again come from the home side.

Final Prediction

Brentford’s advantage in league position, chance creation and defensive solidity makes them clear favourites to overpower a Wolves team rooted to the bottom and struggling to generate consistent threat. The key factor to watch will be whether Brentford can turn their strong xG numbers into early goals; if they do, Wolves’ limited attacking profile suggests a long afternoon for the visitors.

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