Premier League 2025-2026: Brighton vs Chelsea Prediction - 21 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Brighton

Home Team
35%
VS

Chelsea

Away Team
40%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 24.5
Expected Spread: +0.0

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 33 21 7 5 63 26 37 70
2 Man City 32 20 7 5 65 29 36 67
3 Man United 33 16 10 7 58 45 13 58
4 Aston Villa 33 17 7 9 47 41 6 58
5 Liverpool 33 16 7 10 54 43 11 55
6 Chelsea 33 13 9 11 53 42 11 48
7 Brentford 33 13 9 11 48 44 4 48
8 Bournemouth 33 11 15 7 50 50 0 48
9 Brighton 33 12 11 10 45 39 6 47
10 Everton 33 13 8 12 40 39 1 47
11 Sunderland 33 12 10 11 36 40 -4 46
12 Fulham 33 13 6 14 43 46 -3 45
13 Crystal Palace 32 11 10 11 35 36 -1 43
14 Newcastle 33 12 6 15 46 49 -3 42
15 Leeds 33 9 12 12 42 49 -7 39
16 Nott'm Forest 33 9 9 15 36 45 -9 36
17 West Ham 33 8 9 16 40 57 -17 33
18 Tottenham 33 7 10 16 42 53 -11 31
19 Burnley 33 4 8 21 34 67 -33 20
20 Wolves 33 3 8 22 24 61 -37 17

Recent Trends

Brighton D W W W L

  • Last Match: D vs Tottenham (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Burnley (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Liverpool (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Sunderland (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 0 - 1)

Chelsea L L L L W

  • Last Match: L vs Man United (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Everton (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Newcastle (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Aston Villa (Goals: 4 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Brighton

xG (avg) 1.54
xGA (avg) 0.90
Clean Sheets 2

Chelsea

xG (avg) 2.59
xGA (avg) 1.55
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Chelsea are marginally favoured here with a 40.0% chance of victory against Brighton’s 35.0%, with the draw at 25.0%, pointing to a very finely balanced contest between the sides currently 6th (Chelsea, 48 pts) and 9th (Brighton, 47 pts) in the Premier League table. The model leans towards a Chelsea win and a lively attacking game, with an over 2.5 prediction rated at 53.0%.

Match Analysis

Brighton come into this on a quietly impressive run: a 2-1 home win over Liverpool, a controlled 2-0 victory at Burnley, and a 2-2 draw at Tottenham. That’s seven points from nine, with only three goals conceded across those fixtures. Importantly, their recent underlying numbers back it up: they’ve averaged 1.544 expected goals for and only 0.902 against over the last five, plus two clean sheets, suggesting a well-balanced side that is limiting chances at the back while still creating enough going forward. Chelsea’s form line is much more alarming on the surface: three straight defeats, all without scoring – 0-1 to Manchester United and 0-3 to Manchester City at Stamford Bridge, followed by a 0-3 loss at Everton. Yet the performances weren’t as flat as the scorelines; across the last five games they’re averaging 2.2 goals scored and 2.588 xG for, with 1.6 goals and 1.554 xG conceded. They have been open, aggressive and wasteful rather than passive, and the complete absence of clean sheets in that spell points to a team that always gives you a chance.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Brighton
Goals in last 5 matches
Chelsea
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 53.0% makes sense in this context. Two of Brighton’s last three matches finished over 2.5 goals (4 vs Tottenham, 3 vs Liverpool), with only the 2-0 win at Burnley falling under. All three of Chelsea’s recent games have finished exactly on or below that mark in terms of totals (1, 3, 3), but their five-game averages of 2.2 scored and 1.6 conceded – combined with strong xG figures at both ends – suggest this fixture is more likely to open up than not. Both teams’ attacking metrics point to a game where a single goal won’t be enough.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Brighton
Corners in last 5 matches
Chelsea
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners is 9.72, which fits with a game between two sides happy to attack the wide areas. Brighton’s last three outings have produced 12, 10 and 12 total corners, while Chelsea’s have seen 8, 16 and 12, underlining how often both sides push the play into the final third. That supports a relatively high corners prediction, with Chelsea’s front-foot approach and Brighton’s proactive style likely to keep the flag-bearers busy.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Brighton
Shots in last 5 matches
Chelsea
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model’s expected shots figure of 24.49 lines up neatly with the recent evidence. Brighton’s past three matches have seen combined shot counts of 23 (vs Spurs), 23 (Burnley) and 28 (Liverpool), while Chelsea’s have produced 25 (United), 30 (City) and 22 (Everton). Given both teams’ strong xG numbers in attack, this shots prediction points towards plenty of efforts from distance and inside the box, rather than a cagey stalemate.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Brighton wins by X goals. Negative = Chelsea wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Brighton vs Chelsea with expected spread of +0.0
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Brighton vs Chelsea
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is set at 0.0, reflecting just how tight this looks on paper despite Chelsea’s slight edge in win probability. Brighton’s last three games show a goal difference of +3 (6 scored, 3 conceded), while Chelsea sit at -7 (0 scored, 7 conceded) over the same number of matches, yet Chelsea’s underlying attacking metrics are better across five games. The expected spread of zero essentially mirrors a match that could tilt either way, but with Chelsea’s higher win chance suggesting they might just edge the key moments.

Final Prediction

Chelsea are given a slight advantage thanks to their higher attacking output and stronger xG profile, even if the recent scorelines have been brutal. Brighton’s compact defending and efficient use of chances mean they are more than capable of punishing any wastefulness. The key factor to watch is whether Chelsea can finally align their finishing with their chance creation; if they do, their edge in attack could decide a tight game.

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