Premier League 2025-2026: Brighton vs Crystal Palace Prediction - 8 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Brighton

Home Team
55%
VS

Crystal Palace

Away Team
22%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 24 16 5 3 46 17 29 53
2 Man City 24 14 5 5 49 23 26 47
3 Aston Villa 24 14 4 6 35 26 9 46
4 Man United 24 11 8 5 44 36 8 41
5 Chelsea 24 11 7 6 42 27 15 40
6 Liverpool 24 11 6 7 39 33 6 39
7 Brentford 24 11 3 10 36 32 4 36
8 Sunderland 24 9 9 6 27 26 1 36
9 Fulham 24 10 4 10 34 35 -1 34
10 Everton 24 9 7 8 26 27 -1 34
11 Newcastle 24 9 6 9 33 33 0 33
12 Bournemouth 24 8 9 7 40 43 -3 33
13 Brighton 24 7 10 7 34 32 2 31
14 Tottenham 24 7 8 9 35 33 2 29
15 Crystal Palace 24 7 8 9 25 29 -4 29
16 Leeds 24 6 8 10 31 42 -11 26
17 Nott'm Forest 24 7 5 12 24 35 -11 26
18 West Ham 24 5 5 14 29 48 -19 20
19 Burnley 24 3 6 15 25 47 -22 15
20 Wolves 24 1 5 18 15 45 -30 8

Recent Trends

Brighton D L D D W

  • Last Match: D vs Everton (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Fulham (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Bournemouth (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Man City (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Burnley (Goals: 2 - 0)

Crystal Palace D L L D L

  • Last Match: D vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Chelsea (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Sunderland (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Aston Villa (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Newcastle (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Brighton

xG (avg) 1.38
xGA (avg) 1.25
Clean Sheets 1

Crystal Palace

xG (avg) 1.46
xGA (avg) 1.85
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Brighton are favoured to take all three points, with a 55.0% probability of a home win against Crystal Palace’s 22.0% chance, and a 22.0% likelihood of a draw. The game is also projected to be relatively open, with a 50.0% chance of over 2.5 goals and a “goal” outcome expected. In the table, Brighton sit 13th on 31 points, just ahead of 15th-placed Palace on 29 points, so there is also a direct battle for mid-table positioning.

Match Analysis

Brighton’s recent form has been steady but unspectacular: two 1–1 home draws (Everton and Bournemouth) wrapped around a 2–1 defeat at Fulham. They’re hard to put away at the moment, conceding just 0.6 goals on average in their last five games, and their expected goals for (1.384) suggests they are creating slightly more than they’re finishing. Only one clean sheet in that period, though, shows there is still the odd lapse at the back. Crystal Palace arrive in poorer form, with one point from their last three matches: a 1–1 draw at Nott’m Forest, a 3–1 home defeat to Chelsea, and a 2–1 loss away to Sunderland. Defensively they’ve been more vulnerable, conceding 2.0 goals per game over their last five, with expected goals against at 1.85, which backs up the numbers on the scoreboard. Palace are still finding the net regularly (1.0 goals per game, xG 1.464), but their inability to shut teams out – just one clean sheet in their last five – is a clear concern.

Final Prediction

Brighton’s tighter recent defence and slightly stronger underlying attacking numbers give them the edge, especially at home. Palace’s habit of conceding twice per game in recent weeks tilts the balance towards a Brighton win in what could still be a lively match. A key factor to watch will be whether Palace can withstand Brighton’s pressure without giving up the kind of chances their recent xG against suggests.

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