Premier League 2025-2026: Brighton vs Liverpool Prediction - 21 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Brighton

Home Team
28%
VS

Liverpool

Away Team
48%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 56%
Under 2.5: 44%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 25.4

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 31 21 7 3 61 22 39 70
2 Man City 30 18 7 5 60 28 32 61
3 Man United 30 15 9 6 54 41 13 54
4 Aston Villa 30 15 6 9 40 37 3 51
5 Liverpool 30 14 7 9 49 40 9 49
6 Chelsea 30 13 9 8 53 35 18 48
7 Brentford 30 13 6 11 46 42 4 45
8 Everton 30 12 7 11 34 35 -1 43
9 Newcastle 30 12 6 12 43 43 0 42
10 Bournemouth 30 9 14 7 44 46 -2 41
11 Fulham 30 12 5 13 40 43 -3 41
12 Brighton 30 10 10 10 39 36 3 40
13 Sunderland 30 10 10 10 30 35 -5 40
14 Crystal Palace 30 10 9 11 33 35 -2 39
15 Leeds 30 7 11 12 37 48 -11 32
16 Tottenham 30 7 9 14 40 47 -7 30
17 Nott'm Forest 30 7 8 15 28 43 -15 29
18 West Ham 30 7 8 15 36 55 -19 29
19 Burnley 30 4 8 18 32 58 -26 20
20 Wolves 31 3 8 20 24 54 -30 17

Recent Trends

Brighton W L W W L

  • Last Match: W vs Sunderland (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Brentford (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Aston Villa (Goals: 0 - 1)

Liverpool D L W W W

  • Last Match: D vs Tottenham (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Wolves (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs West Ham (Goals: 5 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Sunderland (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Brighton

xG (avg) 1.06
xGA (avg) 1.05
Clean Sheets 2

Liverpool

xG (avg) 1.78
xGA (avg) 1.25
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Liverpool are favoured to take all three points on the South Coast, with a 48.0% chance of an away win compared to Brighton’s 28.0% at home and a 23.0% probability of a draw. The model leans towards Jürgen Klopp’s side keeping their push for the Champions League spots going from 5th place, while Brighton look to climb from mid-table in 12th. Goals are expected too, with an over 2.5 prediction given a 56.0% probability.

Match Analysis

Brighton come into this one with two wins from their last three matches, edging Sunderland 1-0 away and beating Nottingham Forest 2-1 at home, either side of a narrow 1-0 home defeat to leaders Arsenal. Those results underline a team that is competitive in tight games, with scorelines of 1-0, 0-1 and 2-1 all pointing to fine margins. Their underlying numbers back that up: across the last five matches they’ve averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, with xG at 1.058 for and 1.05 against, plus two clean sheets – a picture of balance rather than attacking fireworks. Liverpool’s recent form has been more volatile in terms of scorelines but underpinned by strong attacking data. A 5-2 thrashing of West Ham at Anfield showcased their firepower, but that was followed by a wasteful 2-1 defeat at Wolves despite an 11-2 corner count and 19-4 shot advantage. The 1-1 draw with Tottenham, where they again outshot the opposition 17-13, fits a pattern: over the last five games they’ve averaged just 1.0 goal scored, but their xG is a much healthier 1.782 per match, hinting at a side creating enough chances but not always finishing them. Defensively, 1.0 goal conceded on average and 1.254 xG against, plus two recent clean sheets, suggest a unit that generally holds up even when put under pressure.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Brighton
Goals in last 5 matches
Liverpool
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction comes in as the favoured call at 56.0%, and there are signs this could open up. Two of Liverpool’s last three games – the 5-2 win over West Ham and the 2-1 defeat at Wolves – went over 2.5, while Brighton have seen just one of their last three clear that line (the 2-1 victory over Forest), with the other two finishing 1-0. Brighton’s recent average of 0.8 scored and 1.0 conceded, against Liverpool’s 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded, initially points to tighter contests, but Liverpool’s much higher attacking xG of 1.782 suggests the visitors are due a more clinical night, which supports an over 2.5 rather than an under 2.5 scenario.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Brighton
Corners in last 5 matches
Liverpool
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a reasonably lively game, with expected total corners at 9.8. Brighton’s last three outings saw combined corner counts of 10, 7 and 8, while Liverpool’s recent matches have produced 7, 13 and 15 corners respectively, reflecting how often Klopp’s side pin opponents back and rack up set-pieces. With both teams willing to attack – Liverpool especially, as shown by double-figure corners against Wolves (11) and West Ham (10) – a near‑10 predicted corners total fits the pattern of two sides who like to work the wide areas and force blocks.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Brighton
Shots in last 5 matches
Liverpool
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction comes in at 25.42 expected shots in total, which aligns neatly with how both sides have been playing. Brighton’s last three games featured 26, 18 and 27 combined shots, while Liverpool’s produced 30, 23 and 29, underlining that neither side tends to be shy in front of goal. With Liverpool’s recent xG of 1.782 and Brighton’s 1.058, it’s reasonable to expect a steady stream of efforts from both teams, even if the finishing hasn’t always matched the volume of chances.

Final Prediction

Liverpool have the edge thanks to their superior attacking output in chance creation and their higher win probability, bolstered by a strong xG profile despite modest scoring returns. Brighton’s compact, finely balanced performances mean they will not be easy to break down, but the key factor to watch is whether Liverpool can finally align their finishing with the opportunities they are consistently generating.

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