Premier League 2025-2026: Brighton vs Nott'm Forest Prediction - 1 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Brighton

Home Team
59%
VS

Nott'm Forest

Away Team
20%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Shots: 25.5

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 28 18 7 3 56 21 35 61
2 Man City 27 17 5 5 56 25 31 56
3 Aston Villa 27 15 6 6 38 28 10 51
4 Man United 27 13 9 5 48 37 11 48
5 Chelsea 27 12 9 6 48 31 17 45
6 Liverpool 27 13 6 8 42 35 7 45
7 Brentford 27 12 4 11 40 37 3 40
8 Bournemouth 27 9 11 7 43 45 -2 38
9 Everton 27 10 7 10 29 31 -2 37
10 Fulham 27 11 4 12 38 41 -3 37
11 Newcastle 27 10 6 11 38 39 -1 36
12 Sunderland 27 9 9 9 28 33 -5 36
13 Crystal Palace 27 9 8 10 29 32 -3 35
14 Brighton 27 8 10 9 36 34 2 34
15 Leeds 27 7 10 10 37 46 -9 31
16 Tottenham 27 7 8 12 37 41 -4 29
17 Nott'm Forest 27 7 6 14 25 39 -14 27
18 West Ham 27 6 7 14 32 49 -17 25
19 Burnley 27 4 7 16 29 52 -23 19
20 Wolves 28 1 7 20 18 51 -33 10

Recent Trends

Brighton W L L D L

  • Last Match: W vs Brentford (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Aston Villa (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Everton (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Fulham (Goals: 1 - 2)

Nott'm Forest L D L D W

  • Last Match: L vs Liverpool (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Wolves (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Leeds (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Brentford (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Brighton

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.11
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.09
# Clean Sheets: 1

Nott'm Forest

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.14
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.05
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Brighton are favoured to take all three points at home, with a 59.0% win probability compared to just 20.0% for Nott’m Forest and a 21.0% chance of a draw. The model leans towards a tight contest, backing an under 2.5 goals prediction despite a 50.0% probability line for the goal total. In the table, Brighton sit 14th on 34 points, while Forest are 17th on 27 points and still very much in the relegation fight.

Match Analysis

Brighton come into this on the back of a timely 2-0 away win at Brentford, which halted a run of two narrow defeats without scoring against Aston Villa (0-1 away) and Crystal Palace (0-1 at home). Those three games underline a clear pattern: Brighton have become far more solid defensively – conceding just two goals across them – but have struggled to turn possession and territory into a steady flow of chances. Their recent averages bear that out: 0.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded over the last five, with xG figures of 1.112 for and 1.094 against suggesting relatively even, low‑margin contests. Forest’s recent form tells a different story: they’ve been proactive, even dominant at times, but wasteful. A 0-1 home defeat to Liverpool and a 0-0 draw with Wolves saw them create plenty – 18 and 35 shots respectively – without a breakthrough, before a 1-3 defeat at Leeds exposed their defensive vulnerability again. Over their last five, Forest average 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, and the xG numbers are striking: 1.142 for but a high 2.052 against, underlining how many chances they allow. That gap in defensive stability, especially away from home, is a major factor tipping the balance towards Brighton.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Brighton
Goals in last 5 matches
Nott'm Forest
Goals in last 5 matches
The model’s call is under 2.5 with a 50.0% line on the goal total, driven largely by Brighton’s recent low-scoring pattern. Two of Brighton’s last three games finished 1-0 (both under 2.5), with only the 2-0 win at Brentford reaching two goals in total. Forest, by contrast, have had one clear over – the 1-3 loss at Leeds – and two unders (0-1 vs Liverpool, 0-0 vs Wolves), but their average of 1.6 goals conceded and 2.052 xG against does hint at volatility. Even so, Brighton’s 0.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded across the last five, combined with both sides’ similar xG for (around 1.1), support a marginal preference for an under 2.5 outcome in this over 2.5 prediction discussion.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Brighton
Shots in last 5 matches
Nott'm Forest
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 25.51, reflecting a game where both sides get efforts away without it becoming a complete shoot-out. Forest’s numbers are eye-catching: 18 shots vs Liverpool, 35 against Wolves and 16 at Leeds, suggesting a front‑foot approach even when results don’t follow. Brighton have been more measured – 11, 9 and 7 shots in their last three – but still contribute steadily. That blend points to a shots prediction in the mid‑20s, and the xG figures (1.112 vs 1.142 attacking for each side) fit with a game of reasonable chance volume rather than a siege.

Final Prediction

Brighton’s edge comes from a sturdier defence and home advantage, backed up by Forest’s tendency to give up high-quality chances, as shown by their 2.052 xG against over the last five. Forest’s attacking volume means they won’t make it comfortable, but their openness at the back tilts the tie towards the hosts. The key factor to watch will be whether Brighton can turn their territorial control into early goals, or if Forest’s high‑shot approach finally brings a ruthless finish.

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