Premier League 2025-2026: Brighton vs Wolves Prediction - 9 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Brighton

Home Team
73%
VS

Wolves

Away Team
12%
Draw: 14%
Over 2.5: 60%
Under 2.5: 40%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 25.5
Expected Spread: +1.3

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 35 23 7 5 67 26 41 76
2 Man City 34 21 8 5 69 32 37 71
3 Man United 35 18 10 7 63 48 15 64
4 Liverpool 35 17 7 11 59 47 12 58
5 Aston Villa 35 17 7 11 48 44 4 58
6 Bournemouth 35 12 16 7 55 52 3 52
7 Brentford 35 14 9 12 52 46 6 51
8 Brighton 35 13 11 11 49 42 7 50
9 Chelsea 35 13 9 13 54 48 6 48
10 Everton 35 13 9 13 44 44 0 48
11 Fulham 35 14 6 15 44 49 -5 48
12 Sunderland 35 12 11 12 37 46 -9 47
13 Newcastle 35 13 6 16 49 51 -2 45
14 Leeds 35 10 13 12 47 52 -5 43
15 Crystal Palace 34 11 10 13 36 42 -6 43
16 Nott'm Forest 35 11 9 15 44 46 -2 42
17 Tottenham 35 9 10 16 45 54 -9 37
18 West Ham 35 9 9 17 42 61 -19 36
19 Burnley 35 4 8 23 35 71 -36 20
20 Wolves 35 3 9 23 25 63 -38 18

Recent Trends

Brighton L W D W W

  • Last Match: L vs Newcastle (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Chelsea (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Tottenham (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Burnley (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Liverpool (Goals: 2 - 1)

Wolves D L L L D

  • Last Match: D vs Sunderland (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Tottenham (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Leeds (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs West Ham (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Brentford (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Brighton

xG (avg) 1.76
xGA (avg) 0.71
Clean Sheets 2

Wolves

xG (avg) 1.01
xGA (avg) 2.93
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Brighton are strong favourites here, with a 73.0% chance of victory against bottom‑placed Wolves, who have just a 12.0% probability of an upset; the draw is priced at 14.0%. The model points to a home win and an expected goal spread of +1.27 in Brighton’s favour, reflecting the gap between 8th (Brighton, 50 points) and 20th (Wolves, 18 points). On top of that, the game leans towards goals, with an over 2.5 prediction at 60.0% probability.

Match Analysis

Brighton come in with solid form and a clear attacking identity. In their last three games they’ve beaten Chelsea 3-0 at home, drawn 2-2 away at Tottenham, and only slipped in a 3-1 defeat at Newcastle. Across those matches they’ve scored six and conceded five, but the underlying numbers are even more encouraging: over the last five games they average 1.762 expected goals for and just 0.706 against, with two clean sheets, suggesting control and balance rather than chaos. Wolves, by contrast, look like a team stuck in reverse at the foot of the table. They’ve taken just one point from their last three: a 1-1 home draw with Sunderland, a 1-0 home defeat to Tottenham, and a heavy 3-0 loss at Leeds. They have scored only once in those three outings and conceded five. The advanced metrics tell the same story: in the last five matches Wolves average only 0.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, with xG numbers (1.006 for, 2.926 against) pointing to a side that is second-best at both ends of the pitch and not particularly unlucky.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Brighton
Goals in last 5 matches
Wolves
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 60.0% looks justified. Two of Brighton’s last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (4 vs Newcastle, 3 vs Chelsea, 4 vs Tottenham), while Wolves have had one over (3 vs Leeds) and two under (2 vs Sunderland, 1 vs Tottenham). With Brighton averaging 1.4 scored and 0.8 conceded in their last five, and Wolves conceding 2.0 per game while their xG against sits at 2.926, the balance of evidence leans towards another match clearing the 2.5 line rather than an under 2.5 slog.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Brighton
Corners in last 5 matches
Wolves
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model’s corners prediction sits at 9.82 total, which aligns with recent patterns. Brighton’s last three games produced 12, 11 and 12 corners respectively, showing how their proactive style generates and concedes set‑piece opportunities. Wolves have seen 9, 10 and 11 corners in their last three, despite often being on the back foot. With both teams used to games in the 9–12 range, predicted corners just under double figures feel realistic for a clash where Brighton are likely to attack consistently and force the issue from wide areas.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Brighton
Shots in last 5 matches
Wolves
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Expected shots for this game are 25.51, which matches the way both sides have been playing. Brighton’s last three have seen shot totals of 26, 21 and 23; they’re comfortable racking up attempts, and their 1.762 xG average reflects regular shooting in good areas. Wolves’ last three produced 30, 22 and 24 shots in total, suggesting they may still fashion chances even when second best. This shots prediction fits with a game tilted towards Brighton but with enough volume from both teams to sustain an open feel.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Brighton wins by X goals. Negative = Wolves wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Brighton vs Wolves with expected spread of +1.3
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Brighton vs Wolves
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction of +1.27 for Brighton effectively calls for a home win by at least a single goal, which dovetails with the 73.0% home‑win probability. Recently Brighton’s individual scorelines (+3 vs Chelsea, -2 vs Newcastle, level vs Spurs) show they can put distance between themselves and opponents, especially at home. Wolves’ last three results (-2 goal difference overall, and 0-3 last time away) underline why the expected spread is so strongly in Brighton’s favour, given the home side’s superior attack and much tighter defence.

Final Prediction

Brighton’s sharper form, stronger xG profile and home advantage give them a clear edge over a Wolves side leaking chances and struggling badly in front of goal. If the pattern of recent weeks holds, the key factor to watch will be how early Brighton can turn territorial dominance into goals; an early breakthrough could make the scoreline reflect the underlying gulf between 8th and 20th in the table.

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