Premier League 2025-2026: Burnley vs Aston Villa Prediction - 10 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Burnley

Home Team
20%
VS

Aston Villa

Away Team
62%
Draw: 18%
Over 2.5: 56%
Under 2.5: 44%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 25.8
Expected Spread: -0.9

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 35 23 7 5 67 26 41 76
2 Man City 34 21 8 5 69 32 37 71
3 Man United 35 18 10 7 63 48 15 64
4 Liverpool 35 17 7 11 59 47 12 58
5 Aston Villa 35 17 7 11 48 44 4 58
6 Bournemouth 35 12 16 7 55 52 3 52
7 Brentford 35 14 9 12 52 46 6 51
8 Brighton 35 13 11 11 49 42 7 50
9 Chelsea 35 13 9 13 54 48 6 48
10 Everton 35 13 9 13 44 44 0 48
11 Fulham 35 14 6 15 44 49 -5 48
12 Sunderland 35 12 11 12 37 46 -9 47
13 Newcastle 35 13 6 16 49 51 -2 45
14 Leeds 35 10 13 12 47 52 -5 43
15 Crystal Palace 34 11 10 13 36 42 -6 43
16 Nott'm Forest 35 11 9 15 44 46 -2 42
17 Tottenham 35 9 10 16 45 54 -9 37
18 West Ham 35 9 9 17 42 61 -19 36
19 Burnley 35 4 8 23 35 71 -36 20
20 Wolves 35 3 9 23 25 63 -38 18

Recent Trends

Burnley L L L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Leeds (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Brighton (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Fulham (Goals: 1 - 3)

Aston Villa L L W D W

  • Last Match: L vs Tottenham (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Fulham (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Sunderland (Goals: 4 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs West Ham (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Burnley

xG (avg) 1.23
xGA (avg) 2.08
Clean Sheets 0

Aston Villa

xG (avg) 1.09
xGA (avg) 1.42
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Aston Villa, sitting 5th and chasing Champions League football, are clear favourites to beat 19th‑placed Burnley, with a 62.0% probability of an away win against just 20.0% for the hosts and 18.0% for the draw. The game is also tilted towards goals: the over 2.5 prediction is favoured at 56.0%, with Villa expected to have too much quality at both ends for a Burnley side leaking chances.

Match Analysis

Burnley come into this under heavy pressure and on a three‑match losing streak: 1-3 at Leeds, 0-1 at home to Man City, and a bruising 1-4 defeat at Nottingham Forest. The pattern is worrying – 9, 9 and 4 shots taken across those games versus 18, 28 and 10 faced – with no clean sheet in their last five. Their recent averages underline the struggle: just 0.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game, with 1.226 expected goals for but a hefty 2.084 xG against, pointing to a side permanently on the back foot. Villa’s form has dipped too – back‑to‑back defeats against Tottenham (1-2) and Fulham (0-1) before that chaotic 4-3 home win over Sunderland – but they remain far more balanced. Over their last five, they also average 0.6 goals scored, but crucially concede slightly less at 1.6, with 1.088 xG for and 1.422 xG against and one clean sheet in that spell. Even when not free‑scoring, they are generally creating more stable attacking platforms and conceding fewer clear chances than Burnley, which matches their much stronger league position.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Burnley
Goals in last 5 matches
Aston Villa
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards an over 2.5 prediction at 56.0%. Two of Burnley’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (1-3 at Leeds, 1-4 at Forest), with only the 0-1 loss to Man City staying under 2.5, and their average of 1.8 goals conceded plus 1.226 xG for suggests an open game at their end. Villa have had two high‑scoring fixtures in their last three (1-2 v Spurs, 4-3 v Sunderland) and one under 2.5 at Fulham, and with both sides’ xG profiles hinting at chances either way, over 2.5 looks the likelier outcome.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Burnley
Corners in last 5 matches
Aston Villa
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.7 total corners, a mid‑range figure reflecting two teams who do attack but aren’t relentlessly wing‑heavy. Burnley’s last three produced corner counts of 0-5, 3-11 and 4-4 – they’ve largely been penned back, conceding plenty of corners as they defend deep. Villa have been more assertive territorially: 5-5 v Spurs, 5-2 at Fulham and 4-5 v Sunderland. With Villa expected to push the game and Burnley scrambling in their own box, the predicted corners total around that 9–10 mark looks well‑balanced.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Burnley
Shots in last 5 matches
Aston Villa
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction sits at 25.78 expected shots in total, suggesting a reasonably busy afternoon for both goalkeepers. Burnley’s recent shot numbers – 9, 9 and just 4 attempts, while allowing 18, 28 and 10 – show a team often outgunned. Villa’s last three (5, 10 and 15 shots, conceding 10, 13 and 10) are more consistent with their xG of 1.088 per game: they might not pepper the goal relentlessly, but they do fashion steady shooting opportunities. Taken together with Burnley’s porous defence, the expected shots figure fits an away side creating the bulk of chances.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Burnley wins by X goals. Negative = Aston Villa wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Burnley vs Aston Villa with expected spread of -0.9
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Burnley vs Aston Villa
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction has an expected spread of -0.91 (home minus away), underlining Aston Villa as near one‑goal favourites. Burnley’s recent goal differences of -2, -1 and -3 echo that expectation of them finishing behind, while Villa’s last three show narrower margins (+1, -1, -1) in more competitive games. With Villa heavily backed in the win probabilities and Burnley’s defensive metrics (1.8 goals conceded, 2.084 xG against) so poor, the expected spread logically leans towards a solid away victory.

Final Prediction

Aston Villa’s superior league position, more stable defensive record and stronger underlying numbers give them a clear edge over a Burnley side in freefall and unable to keep clean sheets. If Villa can translate their xG advantage into actual goals and pin Burnley back as recent corners and shots trends suggest, the key factor to watch will be how long the home defence can resist sustained pressure.

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