Premier League 2025-2026: Burnley vs Bournemouth Prediction - 14 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Burnley

Home Team
13%
VS

Bournemouth

Away Team
74%
Draw: 13%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Shots: 24.6

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 30 20 7 3 59 22 37 67
2 Man City 29 18 6 5 59 27 32 60
3 Man United 29 14 9 6 51 40 11 51
4 Aston Villa 29 15 6 8 39 34 5 51
5 Chelsea 29 13 9 7 53 34 19 48
6 Liverpool 29 14 6 9 48 39 9 48
7 Brentford 29 13 5 11 44 40 4 44
8 Everton 29 12 7 10 34 33 1 43
9 Bournemouth 29 9 13 7 44 46 -2 40
10 Fulham 29 12 4 13 40 43 -3 40
11 Sunderland 29 10 10 9 30 34 -4 40
12 Newcastle 29 11 6 12 42 43 -1 39
13 Crystal Palace 29 10 8 11 33 35 -2 38
14 Brighton 29 9 10 10 38 36 2 37
15 Leeds 29 7 10 12 37 48 -11 31
16 Tottenham 29 7 8 14 39 46 -7 29
17 Nott'm Forest 29 7 7 15 28 43 -15 28
18 West Ham 29 7 7 15 35 54 -19 28
19 Burnley 29 4 7 18 32 58 -26 19
20 Wolves 30 3 7 20 22 52 -30 16

Recent Trends

Burnley L L D W L

  • Last Match: L vs Everton (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Brentford (Goals: 3 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Chelsea (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs West Ham (Goals: 0 - 2)

Bournemouth D D D W D

  • Last Match: D vs Brentford (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Sunderland (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs West Ham (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Everton (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Aston Villa (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Burnley

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.17
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.23
# Clean Sheets: 0

Bournemouth

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.74
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.02
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Bournemouth are strong favourites here, with a 74.0% chance of taking all three points away at Turf Moor, compared to just 13.0% for Burnley and 13.0% for the draw. The model leans towards a tight game, with an under 2.5 goals prediction despite a 54.0% chance that both teams get on the scoresheet. Bournemouth come into this ninth in the Premier League on 40 points, while Burnley sit 19th on 19 points and are fighting to avoid the drop.

Match Analysis

Burnley’s last three outings underline why they are stuck in the bottom two. They were outclassed 2-0 at Everton, conceded four at home in a wild 4-3 defeat to Brentford, and then battled to a 1-1 draw at Chelsea. There is some attacking spark – five goals in those three – but defensively they remain fragile, with nine conceded and no clean sheet. Over the last five games they are shipping 2.6 goals per match on average, with expected goals against at 2.234, showing this is not just bad luck at the back. Bournemouth, in contrast, are on a run of three straight draws but with a much more solid look: 0-0 against Brentford, 1-1 with Sunderland and another 0-0 at West Ham. That’s just one goal conceded in those three games and two clean sheets, reflecting their five‑game average of only 0.8 goals against. Interestingly, their xG conceded over the last five (2.02) is higher than the actual goals let in, suggesting some good goalkeeping and last-ditch defending. Going forward, Bournemouth’s 1.742 xG per game in that period and 1.4 goals scored on average point to a more efficient and consistent attack than Burnley’s 1.6 goals from just 1.174 xG.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Burnley
Goals in last 5 matches
Bournemouth
Goals in last 5 matches
The model favours under 2.5 with a 47.0% probability, despite neither side being completely blunt in attack. Burnley’s last three matches have produced mixed signals: two games went over 2.5 (3-4 vs Brentford and 0-2 vs Everton), while the 1-1 at Chelsea fell under. Bournemouth, however, are trending firmly to the low side, with two 0-0 draws and a 1-1 – all three under 2.5. Their stronger defensive record and Burnley’s modest 1.174 xG scored per game make the under 2.5 prediction the more logical angle, even if a goal for each side (54.0% probability of a “goal” outcome) remains likely.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Burnley
Shots in last 5 matches
Bournemouth
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
With expected shots set at 24.56, this game should see a reasonable amount of goalmouth action without becoming a complete shoot-out. Burnley’s last three matches have featured 19, 28 and 24 total attempts, while Bournemouth’s have seen 18, 29 and 30, underlining why a mid‑20s shots prediction is realistic. Bournemouth’s higher 1.742 xG per game from their recent outings suggests their chances tend to be of better quality, so if either side turns those expected shots into goals, it is more likely to be the visitors.

Final Prediction

Bournemouth’s league position, more secure defence, and stronger underlying attacking numbers give them a clear edge over a Burnley side leaking goals and short on confidence. If the Cherries control territory and keep Burnley’s chances down to low-quality efforts, their superior xG profile should tell. The key factor to watch will be whether Burnley can disrupt Bournemouth’s rhythm early; if they can’t, this shapes up as an away win in a cagey, low-scoring affair.

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