Premier League 2025-2026: Burnley vs Brentford Prediction - 28 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Burnley

Home Team
20%
VS

Brentford

Away Team
64%
Draw: 17%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Shots: 24.6

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 28 18 7 3 56 21 35 61
2 Man City 27 17 5 5 56 25 31 56
3 Aston Villa 27 15 6 6 38 28 10 51
4 Man United 27 13 9 5 48 37 11 48
5 Chelsea 27 12 9 6 48 31 17 45
6 Liverpool 27 13 6 8 42 35 7 45
7 Brentford 27 12 4 11 40 37 3 40
8 Bournemouth 27 9 11 7 43 45 -2 38
9 Everton 27 10 7 10 29 31 -2 37
10 Fulham 27 11 4 12 38 41 -3 37
11 Newcastle 27 10 6 11 38 39 -1 36
12 Sunderland 27 9 9 9 28 33 -5 36
13 Crystal Palace 27 9 8 10 29 32 -3 35
14 Brighton 27 8 10 9 36 34 2 34
15 Leeds 27 7 10 10 37 46 -9 31
16 Tottenham 27 7 8 12 37 41 -4 29
17 Nott'm Forest 27 7 6 14 25 39 -14 27
18 West Ham 27 6 7 14 32 49 -17 25
19 Burnley 27 4 7 16 29 52 -23 19
20 Wolves 28 1 7 20 18 51 -33 10

Recent Trends

Burnley D W L L D

  • Last Match: D vs Chelsea (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs West Ham (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Sunderland (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Tottenham (Goals: 2 - 2)

Brentford L D W W L

  • Last Match: L vs Brighton (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Arsenal (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Newcastle (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Aston Villa (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Burnley

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.26
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.99
# Clean Sheets: 0

Brentford

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.61
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.87
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Brentford are favoured to take all three points at Turf Moor, with a 64.0% chance of an away win against just 20.0% for Burnley and 17.0% for the draw. The model points towards a tight contest in terms of goals, with an *under 2.5* goals prediction at 54.0% despite both sides’ recent mixed scorelines. In the table, Brentford sit 7th on 40 points and pushing towards the European places, while Burnley are 19th with 19 points and battling to escape the relegation zone.

Match Analysis

Burnley come into this under real pressure, having taken four points from their last three games but still leaking goals. A 3-2 win away at Crystal Palace was a major boost, followed by a gritty 1-1 draw at Chelsea, yet they lost 2-0 at home to West Ham despite registering 18 shots. The broader trend remains worrying: in their last five matches they’ve scored just 1.0 goal per game on average, conceded 1.8, and have not managed a single clean sheet. Their xG of 1.26 for and 1.994 against over that period underlines a side that tends to be out-created. Brentford, by contrast, look the more rounded unit. They’ve taken four points from Brighton, Arsenal and Newcastle in their last three – a 3-2 win at St James’ Park, a disciplined 1-1 draw with Arsenal, and a 2-0 defeat to Brighton where they still produced 13 shots. Over their past five matches they’ve averaged 2.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, with xG figures of 1.61 for and 1.874 against. That hints at a team that consistently finds chances and has enough cutting edge to turn them into goals, even if they do allow opportunities at the other end.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Burnley
Goals in last 5 matches
Brentford
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards an *under 2.5* goals prediction, with under favoured at 54.0% against a 46.0% chance of over. Two of Burnley’s last three matches have gone under 2.5 goals (1-1 at Chelsea, 0-2 vs West Ham), with only the 3-2 win at Palace going over. Brentford mirror that pattern: 0-2 vs Brighton and 1-1 vs Arsenal were under, while the 3-2 win at Newcastle went over. With Burnley averaging 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded, and Brentford at 2.0 for and 1.2 against, plus relatively modest xG for both sides, a controlled, lower-scoring game fits the numbers.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Burnley
Shots in last 5 matches
Brentford
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction sits at 24.65 expected shots in total, pointing towards a reasonably open match without becoming a shootout. Burnley’s last three have seen shot totals of 24 (18-6 vs West Ham), 29 (8-21 at Palace) and 24 (12-12 at Chelsea), confirming that their games often involve a fair amount of goalmouth action at both ends. Brentford’s recent matches show 24 shots vs Brighton (13-11), 19 vs Arsenal (12-7) and 27 at Newcastle (11-16). Those figures, combined with Brentford’s 1.61 xG and Burnley’s 1.26 xG over the last five, justify the expected shots number in the mid‑20s.

Final Prediction

Brentford’s superior league position, sharper attack and more reliable recent form give them a clear edge over a Burnley side that is still conceding too many chances and struggling for clean sheets. If the visitors impose their usual balance of organised defending and efficient finishing, their 64.0% win probability looks well-founded. The key factor to watch will be whether Burnley can turn their shot volume at home into real chances – if they don’t, Brentford’s extra quality in both boxes should tell.

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