Premier League 2025-2026: Burnley vs Chelsea Prediction - 22 Nov 2025

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Burnley

Home Team
3%
VS

Chelsea

Away Team
94%
Draw: 4%
Over 2.5: 52%
Under 2.5: 48%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 11 8 2 1 20 5 15 26
2 Man City 11 7 1 3 23 8 15 22
3 Chelsea 11 6 2 3 21 11 10 20
4 Sunderland 11 5 4 2 14 10 4 19
5 Tottenham 11 5 3 3 19 10 9 18
6 Aston Villa 11 5 3 3 13 10 3 18
7 Man United 11 5 3 3 19 18 1 18
8 Liverpool 11 6 0 5 18 17 1 18
9 Bournemouth 11 5 3 3 17 18 -1 18
10 Crystal Palace 11 4 5 2 14 9 5 17
11 Brighton 11 4 4 3 17 15 2 16
12 Brentford 11 5 1 5 17 17 0 16
13 Everton 11 4 3 4 12 13 -1 15
14 Newcastle 11 3 3 5 11 14 -3 12
15 Fulham 11 3 2 6 12 16 -4 11
16 Leeds 11 3 2 6 10 20 -10 11
17 Burnley 11 3 1 7 14 22 -8 10
18 West Ham 11 3 1 7 13 23 -10 10
19 Nott'm Forest 11 2 3 6 10 20 -10 9
20 Wolves 11 0 2 9 7 25 -18 2

Recent Trends

Burnley L L W W L

  • Last Match: L vs West Ham (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Wolves (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Leeds (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Aston Villa (Goals: 1 - 2)

Chelsea W W L W W

  • Last Match: W vs Wolves (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Tottenham (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Sunderland (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Liverpool (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Burnley

xG (avg) 0.70
xGA (avg) 1.92
Clean Sheets 1

Chelsea

xG (avg) 2.22
xGA (avg) 1.14
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

Chelsea is predicted to dominate the upcoming match against Burnley, with a staggering 94.0% probability of an away victory. The clash is expected to feature more than 2.5 goals, with a 52.0% likelihood of such an outcome. Chelsea currently sits in third place in the Premier League standings, while Burnley finds itself in a precarious position at 17th, fighting to avoid relegation.

Match Analysis

In their last three outings, Burnley has experienced a rollercoaster of performances, recently securing a tight 3-2 victory over Wolves but succumbing to defeats against West Ham and Arsenal. The Clarets' defense has shown vulnerability, especially at home, as evidenced by their 2-0 loss to the Gunners. Despite scoring an average of 1 goal per game in their last five matches, Burnley's expected goals metric of 0.7 suggests that they might struggle to find the net against a robust Chelsea backline. Chelsea, on the other hand, boasts a strong form with two wins in their last three matches, including a commanding 3-0 victory over Wolves and a hard-fought 1-0 win against Tottenham. Their lone slip-up came against Sunderland in a close 2-1 defeat. The Blues have been prolific in front of goal, averaging 2.4 goals per game over their last five matches, supported by an impressive expected goals figure of 2.216. Defensively, Chelsea has been resilient, with three clean sheets in the same period, showcasing their defensive solidity.

Final Prediction

Chelsea's superior form and attacking prowess give them a significant edge in this encounter. Their ability to score goals consistently, combined with a sturdy defensive record, positions them as clear favorites against a struggling Burnley side. A key factor to watch will be Chelsea's offensive combinations, as their fluid attacking play could prove decisive in breaking down Burnley's defense.

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