Premier League 2025-2026: Burnley vs Man City Prediction - 22 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Burnley

Home Team
14%
VS

Man City

Away Team
71%
Draw: 15%
Over 2.5: 54%
Under 2.5: 46%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 25.1
Expected Spread: -1.4

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 33 21 7 5 63 26 37 70
2 Man City 32 20 7 5 65 29 36 67
3 Man United 33 16 10 7 58 45 13 58
4 Aston Villa 33 17 7 9 47 41 6 58
5 Liverpool 33 16 7 10 54 43 11 55
6 Chelsea 33 13 9 11 53 42 11 48
7 Brentford 33 13 9 11 48 44 4 48
8 Bournemouth 33 11 15 7 50 50 0 48
9 Brighton 33 12 11 10 45 39 6 47
10 Everton 33 13 8 12 40 39 1 47
11 Sunderland 33 12 10 11 36 40 -4 46
12 Fulham 33 13 6 14 43 46 -3 45
13 Crystal Palace 32 11 10 11 35 36 -1 43
14 Newcastle 33 12 6 15 46 49 -3 42
15 Leeds 33 9 12 12 42 49 -7 39
16 Nott'm Forest 33 9 9 15 36 45 -9 36
17 West Ham 33 8 9 16 40 57 -17 33
18 Tottenham 33 7 10 16 42 53 -11 31
19 Burnley 33 4 8 21 34 67 -33 20
20 Wolves 33 3 8 22 24 61 -37 17

Recent Trends

Burnley L L L D L

  • Last Match: L vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Brighton (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Fulham (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Bournemouth (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Everton (Goals: 0 - 2)

Man City W W D D W

  • Last Match: W vs Arsenal (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Chelsea (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs West Ham (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Leeds (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Burnley

xG (avg) 1.34
xGA (avg) 1.92
Clean Sheets 1

Man City

xG (avg) 2.26
xGA (avg) 1.17
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Man City are clear favourites here, with a 71.0% probability of an away win against a Burnley side given just a 14.0% chance, and the expected goal spread of -1.35 strongly tilts towards Pep Guardiola’s team. The over 2.5 goals prediction is also favoured at 54.0%, suggesting a scoreline with a bit of breathing room rather than a cagey scrap. City arrive second in the table on 67 points, chasing leaders Arsenal, while Burnley sit 19th on 20 points and are fighting to avoid the drop.

Match Analysis

Burnley come into this under severe pressure and in poor form: three straight defeats, and all by multi-goal margins – 1-4 at Nott’m Forest, 0-2 at home to Brighton and 1-3 at Fulham. Defensively they have been too open, conceding a combined nine goals in those games, and even when they’ve had territorial moments (like 8-2 corners against Brighton) they have lacked penalty-box control. The recent averages back this up: 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game across the last five, with 1.342 expected goals for and 1.92 against, plus just one clean sheet in that stretch. City, by contrast, look businesslike rather than spectacular, but their level is far higher. Wins over Arsenal (2-1) and Chelsea (3-0), followed by a dominant if frustrating 1-1 draw at West Ham – where they racked up 24 shots to 1 and 15-1 on corners – show a side controlling matches comprehensively. Over their last five, City average 1.8 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded, with 2.256 xG going forward and 1.172 xG allowed, and two clean sheets. That combination of sustained attacking volume and a relatively tight defence underpins both the win probability and the expected spread.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Burnley
Goals in last 5 matches
Man City
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is marginally preferred at 54.0%. Two of Burnley’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (1-4 vs Forest, 1-3 vs Fulham), with only the 0-2 loss to Brighton staying under, reflecting a side that concedes regularly. For City, all of their last three games finished right on or just over that line: 2-1 vs Arsenal and 3-0 vs Chelsea both cleared it, while the 1-1 at West Ham fell under. With Burnley allowing 2.0 goals per game and City generating strong xG numbers (2.256 per match), over 2.5 remains a logical call.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Burnley
Corners in last 5 matches
Man City
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.44 total corners, which fits a game where City dominate territory but Burnley still see some set-piece moments. Burnley’s last three have produced 8-8, 10-2 and 6-6 in corners, consistently landing in or above that range. City, meanwhile, have posted huge corner counts – 8-5 vs Arsenal, 12-4 at Chelsea and 15-1 at West Ham – illustrating how their high-possession, wing-focused style generates a high volume of predicted corners.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Burnley
Shots in last 5 matches
Man City
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 25.06, and the shots prediction leans towards City taking the majority of those. Burnley’s last three saw them outshot heavily at Fulham (9-22) and Forest (4-10), with a more balanced 10-13 against Brighton. City, by contrast, have unleashed 15 shots vs Arsenal, 18 vs Chelsea and 24 at West Ham, which aligns with their 2.256 xG average and suggests they could approach or even exceed the expected shots number on their own.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Burnley wins by X goals. Negative = Man City wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Burnley vs Man City with expected spread of -1.4
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Burnley vs Man City
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction sits at -1.35, indicating City are expected to win by more than a single goal on average. Recent scorelines support that: Burnley’s last three defeats came by margins of three, two and two goals, while City beat Chelsea by three and Arsenal by one before drawing at West Ham despite overwhelming dominance. Coupled with a 71.0% away win probability and City’s superior attacking and defensive metrics, the expected spread firmly tilts towards a comfortable away victory.

Final Prediction

City’s edge lies in almost every measurable area: league position, recent form, xG profiles, defensive solidity and control of shot volume and corners. Burnley’s vulnerability at the back against sustained pressure is a major concern given the calibre of opposition. The key factor to watch will be how long Burnley can resist City’s wave of attacks; if the visitors score early, the match is likely to follow the predicted pattern of a clear away win and a game leaning over 2.5 goals.

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