Premier League 2025-2026: Chelsea vs Man City Prediction - 12 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Chelsea

Home Team
29%
VS

Man City

Away Team
47%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 54%
Under 2.5: 46%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 24.6

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 31 21 7 3 61 22 39 70
2 Man City 30 18 7 5 60 28 32 61
3 Man United 31 15 10 6 56 43 13 55
4 Aston Villa 31 16 6 9 42 37 5 54
5 Liverpool 31 14 7 10 50 42 8 49
6 Chelsea 31 13 9 9 53 38 15 48
7 Brentford 31 13 7 11 46 42 4 46
8 Everton 31 13 7 11 37 35 2 46
9 Fulham 31 13 5 13 43 44 -1 44
10 Brighton 31 11 10 10 41 37 4 43
11 Sunderland 31 11 10 10 32 36 -4 43
12 Newcastle 31 12 6 13 44 45 -1 42
13 Bournemouth 31 9 15 7 46 48 -2 42
14 Crystal Palace 30 10 9 11 33 35 -2 39
15 Leeds 31 7 12 12 37 48 -11 33
16 Nott'm Forest 31 8 8 15 31 43 -12 32
17 Tottenham 31 7 9 15 40 50 -10 30
18 West Ham 31 7 8 16 36 57 -21 29
19 Burnley 31 4 8 19 33 61 -28 20
20 Wolves 31 3 8 20 24 54 -30 17

Recent Trends

Chelsea L L W L D

  • Last Match: L vs Everton (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Newcastle (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Aston Villa (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Burnley (Goals: 1 - 1)

Man City D D W W W

  • Last Match: D vs West Ham (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Leeds (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Newcastle (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Fulham (Goals: 3 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Chelsea

xG (avg) 2.35
xGA (avg) 1.31
Clean Sheets 0

Man City

xG (avg) 1.85
xGA (avg) 1.54
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Manchester City are favoured to take all three points at Stamford Bridge, with a 47.0% chance of an away win against Chelsea’s 29.0% probability at home and a 24.0% chance of a draw. The model leans towards an open game, with an over 2.5 prediction at 54.0%. City arrive second in the table on 61 points, while Chelsea sit sixth on 48, still chasing the top-five Champions League spots.

Match Analysis

Chelsea’s recent form has been erratic: a heavy 3-0 defeat at Everton, a narrow but costly 1-0 home loss to Newcastle, then an impressive 4-1 win at Aston Villa. That inconsistency is underlined by their defensive record – no clean sheets in their last five – but their attack is generating chances, with 1.6 goals scored on average in that period from a strong 2.348 expected goals. When they click, as at Villa Park, they can overwhelm opponents, but lapses at the back remain a concern. City, by contrast, have stuttered slightly in results but not performances. Draws against West Ham (1-1) and Nottingham Forest (2-2) sandwiched a tight 1-0 win at Leeds. Across the last five, they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, but the underlying numbers are more positive: 1.852 expected goals for and 1.542 against, with two clean sheets. They have dominated territory and chance creation – 24 shots at West Ham and 21 against Forest – but haven’t always turned control into victory. The advanced metrics suggest a clash between a Chelsea side creating plenty but vulnerable defensively, and a City team that controls games and consistently out-shoots opponents. With City nine points clear of Chelsea in the table and boasting the more reliable defensive profile over the last five, the balance of probabilities leans towards Guardiola’s men.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Chelsea
Goals in last 5 matches
Man City
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction comes in at 54.0%, edging this towards a game with at least three goals. Two of Chelsea’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (3-0 at Everton, 4-1 at Villa), with only the 1-0 defeat to Newcastle falling under. City have seen two of their last three land under 2.5 (1-0 at Leeds and 1-1 at West Ham), with the 2-2 draw with Forest going over, but both sides’ recent averages – Chelsea scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.2, City scoring and conceding 1.2 – plus their xG figures point to enough chances for goals at both ends.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Chelsea
Corners in last 5 matches
Man City
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.62, suggesting a moderate but lively game for set-piece situations. Chelsea’s last three have produced 9, 9 and 11 corners respectively, with the Blues often on the front foot (9-3 at Everton, 8-1 versus Newcastle, 8-3 at Villa). City are also strong corner generators, especially when camped in the opposition half: 15-1 at West Ham, 6-1 against Forest, though only 3-5 at Leeds. Given both sides’ inclination to attack, this corners prediction fits two teams that like to push full-backs high and work the ball into wide areas.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Chelsea
Shots in last 5 matches
Man City
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total of 24.62 points to a game where both goalkeepers will be busy. Chelsea’s last three matches have seen them rack up 12, 22 and 15 attempts, while allowing 10, 7 and 9 – consistent with a proactive, front-foot approach. City’s numbers are even more telling: 24 shots at West Ham, 21 against Forest and 14 at Leeds, while conceding very few clear looks in two of those games. That volume of efforts, aligned with both sides’ healthy xG figures, supports a shots prediction in the mid-20s, with City likely to have the lion’s share.

Final Prediction

City are given the edge because they pair superior league position and defensive stability with higher shot volume and strong expected-goals numbers. Chelsea’s threat is real, especially at home, but their lack of recent clean sheets tilts the game towards the visitors. The key factor to watch will be how Chelsea’s back line copes with sustained City pressure and whether they can turn their own promising xG into clinical finishing on the break.

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