Premier League 2025-2026: Chelsea vs Newcastle Prediction - 14 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Chelsea

Home Team
74%
VS

Newcastle

Away Team
12%
Draw: 14%
Over 2.5: 60%
Under 2.5: 40%
Goal: 60%
No Goal: 40%
Expected Shots: 25.3

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 30 20 7 3 59 22 37 67
2 Man City 29 18 6 5 59 27 32 60
3 Man United 29 14 9 6 51 40 11 51
4 Aston Villa 29 15 6 8 39 34 5 51
5 Chelsea 29 13 9 7 53 34 19 48
6 Liverpool 29 14 6 9 48 39 9 48
7 Brentford 29 13 5 11 44 40 4 44
8 Everton 29 12 7 10 34 33 1 43
9 Bournemouth 29 9 13 7 44 46 -2 40
10 Fulham 29 12 4 13 40 43 -3 40
11 Sunderland 29 10 10 9 30 34 -4 40
12 Newcastle 29 11 6 12 42 43 -1 39
13 Crystal Palace 29 10 8 11 33 35 -2 38
14 Brighton 29 9 10 10 38 36 2 37
15 Leeds 29 7 10 12 37 48 -11 31
16 Tottenham 29 7 8 14 39 46 -7 29
17 Nott'm Forest 29 7 7 15 28 43 -15 28
18 West Ham 29 7 7 15 35 54 -19 28
19 Burnley 29 4 7 18 32 58 -26 19
20 Wolves 30 3 7 20 22 52 -30 16

Recent Trends

Chelsea W L D D W

  • Last Match: W vs Aston Villa (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Burnley (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Leeds (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Wolves (Goals: 3 - 1)

Newcastle W L L W L

  • Last Match: W vs Man United (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Everton (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Tottenham (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Brentford (Goals: 2 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Chelsea

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.47
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.80
# Clean Sheets: 0

Newcastle

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.31
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.75
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Chelsea are favoured to take all three points at Stamford Bridge, with a strong 74.0% probability of a home win against Newcastle’s 12.0% chance and a 14.0% likelihood of a draw. The hosts come in sitting 5th on 48 points, chasing a Champions League place, while Newcastle are 12th on 39 points and drifting in mid‑table. The model also leans towards goals, with an over 2.5 prediction at 60.0% and both teams expected to score.

Match Analysis

Chelsea’s recent form has been solid if not flawless: a convincing 4-1 away win at Aston Villa, a narrow 2-1 defeat at Arsenal, and a frustrating 1-1 home draw with Burnley. Across those games they’ve shown attacking variety, racking up 15, 9 and 12 shots respectively and clearly on the front foot at home with 9 corners against Burnley. Over the last five matches they are averaging 2.0 goals scored and 2.468 expected goals, but the lack of a clean sheet in that stretch underlines a lingering vulnerability at the back (1.4 goals and 1.8 xG conceded on average). Newcastle arrive with a mixed bag of results: an important 2-1 home win over Manchester United, followed by a 3-2 home defeat to Everton and a competitive 2-1 loss away at Manchester City. They’ve been in every game, creating 12, 17 and 13 shots respectively, but conceding 1.6 goals on average over the last five and failing to keep a single clean sheet hints at why they sit in mid-table. Their attack is steady rather than explosive (1.4 goals and 1.312 xG scored on average), and they’re giving up 1.748 xG per match, which is a concern against a Chelsea side that consistently creates chances.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Chelsea
Goals in last 5 matches
Newcastle
Goals in last 5 matches
The model’s over 2.5 prediction at 60.0% looks well supported by recent scorelines. Two of Chelsea’s last three league games have gone over 2.5 goals (4-1 vs Villa, 1-2 vs Arsenal), with only the 1-1 draw with Burnley falling under 2.5. Newcastle also have two of their last three over 2.5 (2-3 vs Everton, 2-1 vs Man United) and one under (1-2 vs Man City). With Chelsea averaging 2.0 scored and 1.4 conceded, and Newcastle at 1.4 scored and 1.6 conceded, plus xG figures pointing to chances at both ends, another high‑scoring encounter feels more likely than a cagey affair.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Chelsea
Shots in last 5 matches
Newcastle
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 25.32 suggests a lively game, and the recent data backs that up. Chelsea’s last three have seen 24, 21 and 24 total shots, while Newcastle’s produced 26, 26 and 28 – all in the same ballpark as this shots prediction. With Chelsea’s 2.468 xG and Newcastle’s 1.312 xG per game over the last five, both sides are consistently creating chances, so around mid‑20s in expected shots looks realistic for fans anticipating a busy evening for both goalkeepers.

Final Prediction

Chelsea’s superior league position, stronger recent attacking numbers and home advantage explain why they are clear favourites here. Newcastle can hurt them, but their recent defensive record and xG conceded suggest they may struggle to contain Chelsea’s front line over 90 minutes. The key factor to watch will be whether Chelsea can turn their expected goals dominance into a ruthless display in both boxes, or if Newcastle can exploit Chelsea’s ongoing failure to keep clean sheets.

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