Premier League 2025-2026: Chelsea vs Nott'm Forest Prediction - 4 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Chelsea

Home Team
52%
VS

Nott'm Forest

Away Team
25%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 54%
Under 2.5: 46%
Goal: 60%
No Goal: 40%
Expected Corners: 9.9
Expected Shots: 23.7
Expected Spread: +0.4

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 34 22 7 5 64 26 38 73
2 Man City 33 21 7 5 66 29 37 70
3 Man United 34 17 10 7 60 46 14 61
4 Liverpool 34 17 7 10 57 44 13 58
5 Aston Villa 34 17 7 10 47 42 5 58
6 Brighton 34 13 11 10 48 39 9 50
7 Bournemouth 34 11 16 7 52 52 0 49
8 Chelsea 34 13 9 12 53 45 8 48
9 Brentford 34 13 9 12 49 46 3 48
10 Fulham 34 14 6 14 44 46 -2 48
11 Everton 34 13 8 13 41 41 0 47
12 Sunderland 34 12 10 12 36 45 -9 46
13 Crystal Palace 33 11 10 12 36 39 -3 43
14 Newcastle 34 12 6 16 46 50 -4 42
15 Leeds 34 9 13 12 44 51 -7 40
16 Nott'm Forest 34 10 9 15 41 45 -4 39
17 West Ham 34 9 9 16 42 58 -16 36
18 Tottenham 34 8 10 16 43 53 -10 34
19 Burnley 34 4 8 22 34 68 -34 20
20 Wolves 34 3 8 23 24 62 -38 17

Recent Trends

Chelsea L L L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Brighton (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Man United (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Everton (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Newcastle (Goals: 0 - 1)

Nott'm Forest W W D W D

  • Last Match: W vs Sunderland (Goals: 5 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Burnley (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Aston Villa (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Tottenham (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Fulham (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Chelsea

xG (avg) 1.99
xGA (avg) 1.24
Clean Sheets 0

Nott'm Forest

xG (avg) 1.36
xGA (avg) 1.91
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

Chelsea are slight favourites at Stamford Bridge, with a 52.0% chance of taking all three points against a Nott'm Forest side given a 25.0% shot at an upset and a 23.0% probability of a draw. The model leans towards a home win (predicted result: H) and a lively contest, with an over 2.5 prediction at 54.0%. In the table, Chelsea sit 8th on 48 points, while Forest are 16th on 39 points and still glancing nervously over their shoulders at the relegation zone.

Match Analysis

Chelsea come into this one on a three-game losing run, all without scoring: 0-3 at Brighton, 0-1 at home to Man United and 0-3 at home to Man City. The worrying headline is the lack of goals (0 in the last three), but the underlying numbers are kinder: across the last five matches they’ve averaged 1.992 expected goals for and 1.236 against, suggesting they are creating enough to score but failing to finish. No clean sheets in that period underline a soft underbelly that has turned competitive performances into defeats. Forest arrive in far better spirits: back-to-back wins over Burnley (4-1) and Sunderland (5-0), followed by a solid 1-1 draw with Champions League-chasing Aston Villa. They have averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over their last five, but the advanced metrics hint at a side punching slightly above its weight: 1.362 xG for and a high 1.908 xG against. In other words, they’ve been clinical at one end and a little fortunate at the other. That combination, away from home against a side with Chelsea’s xG profile, makes for a fascinating clash of form versus fundamentals.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Chelsea
Goals in last 5 matches
Nott'm Forest
Goals in last 5 matches
The model goes for over 2.5 with a 54.0% probability, and the recent goal patterns back a positive over 2.5 prediction more than the bare Chelsea scorelines suggest. Two of Forest’s last three matches comfortably cleared the line (5-0 and 4-1), with only the 1-1 against Villa staying under 2.5. All three of Chelsea’s last games finished under 2.5, but their averages over the last five – 0.6 scored and 1.6 conceded, with almost 2.0 xG for per match – point to a side more likely to break their drought than the recent results show.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Chelsea
Corners in last 5 matches
Nott'm Forest
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.95, suggesting a tally around the 10-mark for our corners prediction. Chelsea’s last three have seen combined corner counts of 11 (at Brighton), 8 (v Man United) and 16 (v Man City), while Forest’s fixtures produced 9 (Sunderland), 8 (Burnley) and 10 (Villa). With both sides tending to attack from wide areas and generate a steady stream of set-play situations, the predicted corners figure fits with a game where Chelsea press high and Forest look to break.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Chelsea
Shots in last 5 matches
Nott'm Forest
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total shots is 23.71, aligning with a shots prediction of a mid-20s attempt count. Chelsea’s last three outings featured 6, 21 and 12 attempts of their own, while they faced 15, 4 and 18 shots in return; Forest, meanwhile, have taken 10, 10 and 15 efforts and conceded 14, 4 and 12. Those numbers match the xG pattern: Chelsea’s strong 1.992 xG for and Forest’s 1.908 xG against hint at a game with plenty of efforts on goal, even if not all are clear-cut chances.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Chelsea wins by X goals. Negative = Nott'm Forest wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Chelsea vs Nott'm Forest with expected spread of +0.4
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Chelsea vs Nott'm Forest
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is Chelsea -0.43, meaning the home side are expected to edge it by roughly half a goal on average. Chelsea’s recent goal differences have been poor (-3, -1, -3), while Forest’s have been excellent (+5, +3, 0), but the expected spread leans towards Chelsea because of their superior underlying attacking and defensive metrics. Combined with the 52.0% home-win probability and Forest’s high xG conceded, the model still views the Blues as marginally stronger over 90 minutes.

Final Prediction

Chelsea’s edge lies less in current form and more in the balance of chances they tend to create versus what they allow, especially compared to a Forest side that has been generous in xG terms. If the home side can finally align their finishing with their chance creation, the predicted result of a narrow Chelsea win looks justified. The key factor to watch will be whether Forest’s recent ruthlessness in front of goal can again exploit a Chelsea defence that hasn’t kept a clean sheet in five.

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