Premier League 2025-2026: Crystal Palace vs Everton Prediction - 10 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Crystal Palace

Home Team
55%
VS

Everton

Away Team
23%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 57%
Under 2.5: 43%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 25.1
Expected Spread: +0.6

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 35 23 7 5 67 26 41 76
2 Man City 34 21 8 5 69 32 37 71
3 Man United 35 18 10 7 63 48 15 64
4 Liverpool 35 17 7 11 59 47 12 58
5 Aston Villa 35 17 7 11 48 44 4 58
6 Bournemouth 35 12 16 7 55 52 3 52
7 Brentford 35 14 9 12 52 46 6 51
8 Brighton 35 13 11 11 49 42 7 50
9 Chelsea 35 13 9 13 54 48 6 48
10 Everton 35 13 9 13 44 44 0 48
11 Fulham 35 14 6 15 44 49 -5 48
12 Sunderland 35 12 11 12 37 46 -9 47
13 Newcastle 35 13 6 16 49 51 -2 45
14 Leeds 35 10 13 12 47 52 -5 43
15 Crystal Palace 34 11 10 13 36 42 -6 43
16 Nott'm Forest 35 11 9 15 44 46 -2 42
17 Tottenham 35 9 10 16 45 54 -9 37
18 West Ham 35 9 9 17 42 61 -19 36
19 Burnley 35 4 8 23 35 71 -36 20
20 Wolves 35 3 9 23 25 63 -38 18

Recent Trends

Crystal Palace L L D W D

  • Last Match: L vs Bournemouth (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Liverpool (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs West Ham (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Newcastle (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Leeds (Goals: 0 - 0)

Everton D L L D W

  • Last Match: D vs Man City (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs West Ham (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Liverpool (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Brentford (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Chelsea (Goals: 3 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Crystal Palace

xG (avg) 1.71
xGA (avg) 1.08
Clean Sheets 2

Everton

xG (avg) 1.63
xGA (avg) 1.87
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Crystal Palace are slight favourites at Selhurst Park, with a 55.0% chance of victory against Everton’s 23.0%, and a 22.0% probability of a draw. The data points towards a Palace win (home result predicted) in a meeting between the 15th-placed Eagles on 43 points and 10th-placed Everton on 48. Goals are expected, with an over 2.5 prediction backed by a 57.0% probability.

Match Analysis

Palace come into this on a three-game winless run, but the performances have not been as bleak as the results suggest. They were well beaten 3-0 at Bournemouth and lost 3-1 at Liverpool, yet the West Ham stalemate at home (0-0) showed a tighter defensive structure. Over the last five matches they’ve kept two clean sheets and conceded on average just 0.8 goals, while generating 1.714 expected goals per game – a sign they are creating more than their raw tally of 1.0 goals scored per match. Everton’s form has been similarly mixed but more open. A thrilling 3-3 draw at home to Manchester City underlined their attacking intent, followed by narrow 2-1 defeats to both West Ham and Liverpool. Across their last five, they’ve scored 1.6 goals per game but conceded 1.8, with xG figures of 1.632 for and 1.866 against highlighting both their ability to create and their vulnerability at the back. That balance of attacking threat and defensive looseness plays into Palace’s hands, especially with home advantage.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Crystal Palace
Goals in last 5 matches
Everton
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is supported by a 57.0% probability, with both sides trending towards more open contests. Two of Palace’s last three matches have finished over 2.5 goals (3-0 vs Bournemouth, 3-1 vs Liverpool), while the West Ham draw was the lone under 2.5. Everton mirror that pattern: all three of their recent games (3-3 vs Man City, 2-1 vs West Ham, 2-1 vs Liverpool) have cleared the 2.5 line. With Palace averaging 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded but 1.714 xG for, and Everton at 1.6 scored, 1.8 conceded and 1.866 xG against, the data backs another high-scoring afternoon rather than an under 2.5 grind.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Crystal Palace
Corners in last 5 matches
Everton
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to an open game, with 9.77 predicted corners in total. Palace’s last three have produced corner counts of 1-7, 8-5 and 4-6, regularly hitting double figures combined as they mix spells of pressure with periods under siege. Everton’s recent matches (5-9 vs City, 4-3 at West Ham, 1-6 vs Liverpool) tell a similar story: they both win and concede corners as their aggressive approach leaves space at both ends. That suggests the predicted corners total around 10 is realistic for two sides who are willing to attack from wide areas.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Crystal Palace
Shots in last 5 matches
Everton
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 25.07 underlines the likelihood of a busy afternoon for both goalkeepers. Palace’s last three have seen combined shot totals of 23, 23 and 18, while Everton’s have registered 35, 21 and 24 – comfortably around or above the expected shots line. With both sides’ xG numbers hovering around 1.6–1.8 in recent weeks, the shots prediction aligns with the idea of frequent attempts from both sides rather than a cagey, low-volume clash.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Crystal Palace wins by X goals. Negative = Everton wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Crystal Palace vs Everton with expected spread of +0.6
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Crystal Palace vs Everton
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction sits at Palace -0.6, meaning the home side are expected to edge this by roughly a single goal. Palace’s recent goal differences (-3 vs Bournemouth, -2 vs Liverpool, 0 vs West Ham) are poor on paper, but their underlying numbers are stronger, especially defensively. Everton’s last three show a -1, -1 and 0 goal difference, consistent with the expected spread that slightly favours the hosts. That fits the match winner probabilities, which tilt towards Palace thanks to their tighter defence and home advantage against an Everton side conceding 1.8 goals per game.

Final Prediction

Palace’s edge comes from their balance: a more solid back line in recent weeks, stronger xG than their raw goals, and the boost of Selhurst Park. Everton’s attacking threat keeps this from being straightforward, but their defensive numbers give Palace room to exploit. The key factor to watch will be how Palace’s chance creation (reflected in that 1.714 xG average) translates into finishing – if they are clinical, the predicted home win and over 2.5 goals could both land.

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