Premier League 2025-2026: Crystal Palace vs Leeds Prediction - 15 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Crystal Palace

Home Team
62%
VS

Leeds

Away Team
18%
Draw: 20%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Shots: 24.1

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 30 20 7 3 59 22 37 67
2 Man City 29 18 6 5 59 27 32 60
3 Man United 29 14 9 6 51 40 11 51
4 Aston Villa 29 15 6 8 39 34 5 51
5 Chelsea 29 13 9 7 53 34 19 48
6 Liverpool 29 14 6 9 48 39 9 48
7 Brentford 29 13 5 11 44 40 4 44
8 Everton 29 12 7 10 34 33 1 43
9 Bournemouth 29 9 13 7 44 46 -2 40
10 Fulham 29 12 4 13 40 43 -3 40
11 Sunderland 29 10 10 9 30 34 -4 40
12 Newcastle 29 11 6 12 42 43 -1 39
13 Crystal Palace 29 10 8 11 33 35 -2 38
14 Brighton 29 9 10 10 38 36 2 37
15 Leeds 29 7 10 12 37 48 -11 31
16 Tottenham 29 7 8 14 39 46 -7 29
17 Nott'm Forest 29 7 7 15 28 43 -15 28
18 West Ham 29 7 7 15 35 54 -19 28
19 Burnley 29 4 7 18 32 58 -26 19
20 Wolves 30 3 7 20 22 52 -30 16

Recent Trends

Crystal Palace W L W L W

  • Last Match: W vs Tottenham (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Man United (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Wolves (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Burnley (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Brighton (Goals: 1 - 0)

Leeds L L D D W

  • Last Match: L vs Sunderland (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Aston Villa (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Chelsea (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 3 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Crystal Palace

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.05
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.86
# Clean Sheets: 2

Leeds

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.35
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.89
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Crystal Palace are favoured to take all three points at Selhurst Park, with a 62.0% probability of a home win against a Leeds side given just an 18.0% chance, and a 20.0% likelihood of a draw. The model leans towards an under 2.5 goals prediction despite a 50.0% probability line on the goal total, suggesting a tight contest. Palace come into this one 13th in the table on 38 points, while Leeds are 15th with 31 points and still glancing nervously over their shoulder.

Match Analysis

Palace’s recent run has been solid if unspectacular: two wins from their last three, including an impressive 3-1 away victory at Tottenham and a controlled 1-0 home win over Wolves, bookending a narrow 2-1 defeat at Manchester United. That sequence hints at a side that can mix it both on the counter and in more measured home performances. Their underlying numbers back that up: across the last five games they’ve averaged 2.054 expected goals for and 1.856 against, with two clean sheets, suggesting they’re creating more than they’re actually converting (just 1.0 goal scored on average). Leeds arrive in South London without a win in three, but their performances haven’t been as poor as the results. A 1-1 draw away at high-flying Aston Villa followed by narrow 1-0 home defeats to Sunderland and Manchester City show a team that competes but lacks cutting edge and defensive control at key moments. They’ve averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over their last five, with no clean sheets and xG numbers (1.352 for, 1.892 against) that point to them giving up plenty of chances. That defensive vulnerability against a Palace side whose chance creation is trending upwards is a major factor in the home-win expectation.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Crystal Palace
Goals in last 5 matches
Leeds
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to under 2.5 goals despite a finely balanced 50.0% probability line on the total. Two of Palace’s last three matches went under 2.5 (1-0 vs Wolves, 1-2 vs Man United fell just under, 3-1 vs Spurs went over), while all three of Leeds’ recent games ended under 2.5 (0-1 vs Sunderland, 0-1 vs Man City, 1-1 vs Villa). With Palace averaging 1.0 scored and 1.4 conceded but posting higher xG than actual output, and Leeds at 1.4 scored and 1.6 conceded from more modest xG, this under 2.5 prediction rests on wasteful finishing and Leeds’ struggle to turn territory into goals.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Crystal Palace
Shots in last 5 matches
Leeds
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model projects 24.08 expected shots in total, suggesting a game with chances but not a relentless barrage. Palace’s recent shot numbers read 9, 8 and 14, while allowing 12, 20 and 12, underlining a team happy to be selective and rely on better-quality chances, as reflected in their strong xG. Leeds have fired 18, 14 and 14 shots in their last three, conceding 3, 14 and 16, indicating a more open style that matches the shots prediction and their xG conceded trend.

Final Prediction

Palace’s edge comes from a combination of better recent results, strong chance creation numbers and home advantage against a Leeds side that has failed to secure a clean sheet in its last five. If Palace can finally align their xG with their finishing, Leeds’ shaky back line could be punished. A key factor to watch will be how Leeds cope with Palace’s attacking phases at Selhurst Park; if they sit too deep for too long, the pressure is likely to tell.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel