Premier League 2025-2026: Crystal Palace vs Wolves Prediction - 22 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Crystal Palace

Home Team
89%
VS

Wolves

Away Team
5%
Draw: 6%
Over 2.5: 51%
Under 2.5: 49%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Shots: 23.3

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 27 17 7 3 52 20 32 58
2 Man City 26 16 5 5 54 24 30 53
3 Aston Villa 26 15 5 6 37 27 10 50
4 Man United 26 12 9 5 47 37 10 45
5 Chelsea 26 12 8 6 47 30 17 44
6 Liverpool 26 12 6 8 41 35 6 42
7 Brentford 26 12 4 10 40 35 5 40
8 Everton 26 10 7 9 29 30 -1 37
9 Bournemouth 26 9 10 7 43 45 -2 37
10 Newcastle 26 10 6 10 37 37 0 36
11 Sunderland 26 9 9 8 27 30 -3 36
12 Fulham 26 10 4 12 35 40 -5 34
13 Crystal Palace 26 8 8 10 28 32 -4 32
14 Brighton 26 7 10 9 34 34 0 31
15 Leeds 26 7 9 10 36 45 -9 30
16 Tottenham 26 7 8 11 36 37 -1 29
17 Nott'm Forest 26 7 6 13 25 38 -13 27
18 West Ham 26 6 6 14 32 49 -17 24
19 Burnley 26 4 6 16 28 51 -23 18
20 Wolves 27 1 7 19 18 50 -32 10

Recent Trends

Crystal Palace L W D L L

  • Last Match: L vs Burnley (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Brighton (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Chelsea (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Sunderland (Goals: 1 - 2)

Wolves D D L L L

  • Last Match: D vs Arsenal (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Chelsea (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Bournemouth (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Crystal Palace

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.83
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.69
# Clean Sheets: 1

Wolves

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.73
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.82
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Crystal Palace are clear favourites here, with an 89.0% probability of a home win against bottom‑placed Wolves, who have just 10 points and only one league victory from 27 games. Palace sit 13th on 32 points and can further distance themselves from the relegation scrap with a victory. The model points towards an over 2.5 prediction on goals at 51.0%, suggesting a reasonably open game rather than a cagey relegation six‑pointer.

Match Analysis

Crystal Palace’s last three outings have been mixed but competitive: a dramatic 3-2 home defeat to Burnley, a gritty 1-0 away win at Brighton, and a 1-1 draw at Nottingham Forest. They’ve shown they can control games territorially, winning the corner and shot counts in two of those three fixtures, and their average expected goals of 1.832 over the last five matches suggests they are creating more than their raw 0.8 goals per game return implies. Defensively, conceding 1.6 goals per game with xG against at 1.694 shows some vulnerability, but not outright chaos. Wolves, rooted to 20th, come into this with a worrying lack of cutting edge. They’ve drawn with Arsenal (2-2) and Nottingham Forest (0-0) and lost 3-1 to Chelsea, taking just two points from nine. The deeper numbers are concerning: only 0.6 goals scored on average in their last five and xG of 0.732 underline how little they are creating. At the other end, they concede 1.2 goals per game with an xG against of 1.818, and the extreme shot counts against Forest (35 shots faced) and Chelsea (15 faced) highlight how often they are being pinned back.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Crystal Palace
Goals in last 5 matches
Wolves
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans slightly towards an over 2.5 prediction at 51.0%. Two of Crystal Palace’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (3-2 vs Burnley, 1-1 vs Forest, 1-0 vs Brighton), while two of Wolves’ last three also cleared that line (2-2 vs Arsenal, 1-3 vs Chelsea, with only the 0-0 at Forest going under 2.5). With Palace’s recent xG of 1.832 for and 1.694 against, and Wolves allowing 1.818 xG against, the underlying numbers support the idea of enough chances for three or more goals.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Crystal Palace
Shots in last 5 matches
Wolves
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 23.26, aligning with the recent shot volumes for both sides. Palace’s games have produced 29 shots vs Burnley (21-8), 14 vs Brighton (7-7) and 23 vs Forest (14-9), consistently landing in or above that low‑20s bracket. Wolves, meanwhile, have been outshot heavily: 15 vs Arsenal (5-10), a massive 42 vs Forest (7-35), and 26 vs Chelsea (11-15), again suggesting they will face more efforts than they take. Given Palace’s stronger xG numbers and Wolves’ high shots conceded, a shots prediction around 23–24 total attempts feels realistic.

Final Prediction

Crystal Palace’s superior league position, stronger chance creation (1.832 xG for vs Wolves’ 0.732) and home advantage give them a clear edge, justifying the 89.0% probability of a Palace win. Wolves’ lack of attacking threat and tendency to be pushed back in their own half could prove decisive. A key factor to watch will be whether Palace can turn their territorial dominance and expected shots into clinical finishing, or if Wolves can somehow cling on and frustrate them.

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