Premier League 2025-2026: Everton vs Burnley Prediction - 3 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Everton

Home Team
90%
VS

Burnley

Away Team
4%
Draw: 6%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Shots: 25.6

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 29 19 7 3 58 22 36 64
2 Man City 28 18 5 5 57 25 32 59
3 Man United 28 14 9 5 50 38 12 51
4 Aston Villa 28 15 6 7 38 30 8 51
5 Liverpool 28 14 6 8 47 37 10 48
6 Chelsea 28 12 9 7 49 33 16 45
7 Brentford 28 13 4 11 44 40 4 43
8 Everton 28 11 7 10 32 33 -1 40
9 Fulham 28 12 4 12 40 42 -2 40
10 Bournemouth 28 9 12 7 44 46 -2 39
11 Brighton 28 9 10 9 38 35 3 37
12 Sunderland 28 9 10 9 29 34 -5 37
13 Newcastle 28 10 6 12 40 42 -2 36
14 Crystal Palace 28 9 8 11 30 34 -4 35
15 Leeds 28 7 10 11 37 47 -10 31
16 Tottenham 28 7 8 13 38 43 -5 29
17 Nott'm Forest 28 7 6 15 26 41 -15 27
18 West Ham 28 6 7 15 34 54 -20 25
19 Burnley 28 4 7 17 32 56 -24 19
20 Wolves 29 2 7 20 20 51 -31 13

Recent Trends

Everton W L L W D

  • Last Match: W vs Newcastle (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Man United (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Bournemouth (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Fulham (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Brighton (Goals: 1 - 1)

Burnley L D W L L

  • Last Match: L vs Brentford (Goals: 3 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Chelsea (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs West Ham (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Sunderland (Goals: 0 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Everton

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.28
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.66
# Clean Sheets: 0

Burnley

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.53
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.30
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Everton are strong favourites here, with a towering 90.0% probability of a home win against a Burnley side given just a 4.0% chance, and the draw at 6.0%. The model leans towards a tight game, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 47.0% in what looks like a low‑scoring Goodison Park contest. In the table, Everton sit 8th on 40 points, while Burnley are 19th on 19 points and fighting to avoid dropping into the bottom three.

Match Analysis

Everton come into this on a mixed run: a vital 3-2 away win at Newcastle was bookended by narrow home defeats to Man United (0-1) and Bournemouth (1-2). Those results underline a side that is competitive in every match but not always efficient in front of goal. Across their last five games, Everton are averaging 1.0 goal scored and 1.8 conceded, backed by 1.284 expected goals for and 1.66 against, and they have not kept a single clean sheet in that spell. Burnley’s recent form has been chaotic but more productive than their league position suggests: a 3-2 away win at Crystal Palace, a 1-1 draw at Chelsea and a wild 3-4 home defeat to Brentford. They are scoring at the same 1.0 goals-per-game rate as Everton over the last five, but the deeper numbers paint a much shakier picture. Burnley’s xG for that period is just 0.526 on average, while they are allowing a huge 2.3 expected goals per match, again with no clean sheets – a sign that opponents are consistently carving them open. With Everton at home, higher in the table and with more solid underlying numbers at both ends of the pitch, the balance of play is clearly expected to tilt in the hosts’ favour.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Everton
Goals in last 5 matches
Burnley
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans slightly towards an under 2.5 outcome (under 2.5 prediction at 47.0%), even though both teams have been involved in some high‑scoring games lately. Two of Everton’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (3-2 vs Newcastle, 1-2 vs Bournemouth), with only the 0-1 defeat to Man United staying under. Burnley, meanwhile, have seen all of their last three go over 2.5 (3-4 vs Brentford, 1-1 at Chelsea, 3-2 at Palace – with Chelsea the only one to land under). However, both sides average just 1.0 goal scored and 1.8 conceded over the last five games, and the relatively modest xG figures (1.284 for Everton, 0.526 for Burnley) support the idea that recent scorelines may have been a touch inflated, nudging the call towards under 2.5.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Everton
Shots in last 5 matches
Burnley
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction sits at 25.57 expected shots, indicating a reasonably open game without becoming a total shoot‑out. Everton’s last three have ranged from 9 attempts at Newcastle to 12 against Man United and 16 versus Bournemouth, while facing 17, 11 and 11 respectively – consistently in the low-to-mid teens at both ends. Burnley have been similar: 12 shots taken in each of their last three, conceding 16 vs Brentford, 12 at Chelsea and a hefty 21 at Crystal Palace. Those volumes marry well with the xG profiles of both teams, suggesting a match with plenty of efforts but not necessarily converted at a high rate.

Final Prediction

Everton’s home advantage, stronger defensive structure and superior xG balance give them a clear edge over a Burnley side that allows far too many chances. Burnley’s survival fight and recent goalfests add jeopardy, but the numbers still heavily favour the Toffees. A key factor to watch will be how often Everton can force Burnley back into their box, piling up shots and corners against a defence that has struggled to hold out for 90 minutes.

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