Premier League 2025-2026: Everton vs Chelsea Prediction - 21 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Everton

Home Team
26%
VS

Chelsea

Away Team
52%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.9
Expected Shots: 24.9

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 31 21 7 3 61 22 39 70
2 Man City 30 18 7 5 60 28 32 61
3 Man United 30 15 9 6 54 41 13 54
4 Aston Villa 30 15 6 9 40 37 3 51
5 Liverpool 30 14 7 9 49 40 9 49
6 Chelsea 30 13 9 8 53 35 18 48
7 Brentford 30 13 6 11 46 42 4 45
8 Everton 30 12 7 11 34 35 -1 43
9 Newcastle 30 12 6 12 43 43 0 42
10 Bournemouth 30 9 14 7 44 46 -2 41
11 Fulham 30 12 5 13 40 43 -3 41
12 Brighton 30 10 10 10 39 36 3 40
13 Sunderland 30 10 10 10 30 35 -5 40
14 Crystal Palace 30 10 9 11 33 35 -2 39
15 Leeds 30 7 11 12 37 48 -11 32
16 Tottenham 30 7 9 14 40 47 -7 30
17 Nott'm Forest 30 7 8 15 28 43 -15 29
18 West Ham 30 7 8 15 36 55 -19 29
19 Burnley 30 4 8 18 32 58 -26 20
20 Wolves 31 3 8 20 24 54 -30 17

Recent Trends

Everton L W W L L

  • Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Burnley (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Newcastle (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Man United (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Bournemouth (Goals: 1 - 2)

Chelsea L W L D D

  • Last Match: L vs Newcastle (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Aston Villa (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Burnley (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Leeds (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Everton

xG (avg) 1.31
xGA (avg) 1.20
Clean Sheets 1

Chelsea

xG (avg) 2.81
xGA (avg) 1.48
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Chelsea are favoured to take all three points at Goodison, with a 52.0% chance of an away win against just 26.0% for Everton, and the visitors looking to strengthen their push from 6th place while Everton sit 8th. The model leans towards a tight encounter, with an *under 2.5* goals prediction despite a 49.0% chance of the game going over that line. A goal is still more likely than not (52.0% probability), suggesting at least one breakthrough in what could be a controlled, cagey contest.

Match Analysis

Everton come into this with two wins from their last three: a solid 2-0 home victory over Burnley and an impressive 3-2 away success at Newcastle, either side of a 2-0 defeat at Arsenal. That run underlines their resilience: they’ve scored five and conceded four across those games, mixing a clean sheet with a more open contest at St James’ Park. Over their last five, Everton average 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded, backed by 1.314 expected goals for and 1.202 against – numbers that point to a balanced, slightly conservative side that doesn’t often collapse. Chelsea’s recent form has been more volatile on the scoreboard but consistently dangerous. A 4-1 win away at Aston Villa showcased their attacking ceiling, flanked by narrow defeats to Newcastle (0-1) and Arsenal (1-2) in which they actually created plenty: 22 shots versus Newcastle and 10 corners both there and at the Emirates. Over the last five games they’re averaging 2.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, with an even higher 2.808 expected goals for and 1.476 against – a profile of a front-foot team that regularly carves out chances but leaves space going the other way, and notably with zero clean sheets in that stretch.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Everton
Goals in last 5 matches
Chelsea
Goals in last 5 matches
The model edges towards an *under 2.5* goals prediction, even with only a 49.0% implied chance that the game goes over 2.5. Everton’s last three matches have split: two games finished under 2.5 (0-2 at Arsenal, 2-0 vs Burnley) and one went over (3-2 at Newcastle), consistent with their modest averages of 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded, plus close-to-level xG numbers. Chelsea lean more towards higher-scoring games – two of their last three went over 2.5 (4-1 at Villa, 1-2 at Arsenal) and only the 0-1 loss to Newcastle stayed under – but the expectation of a tighter Everton side at home nudges this towards a low-to-mid scoring contest.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Everton
Corners in last 5 matches
Chelsea
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.93, pointing to around 10 as a realistic *corners prediction*. Everton’s last three show mixed patterns: they took 3 corners at Arsenal, 6 against Burnley and just 2 at Newcastle, while often allowing opponents a fair share (8, 3 and 7 respectively). Chelsea, by contrast, have been a corner machine: 8, 8 and 10 in their last three, regularly pushing sides back with sustained pressure. With Chelsea likely to dominate territory and Everton looking to counter and force set-pieces, the predicted corners figure fits a game where the away side’s aggressive, high-volume attacking play should drive the totals.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Everton
Shots in last 5 matches
Chelsea
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this match sit at 24.88, suggesting roughly 25 total attempts as a reasonable *shots prediction*. Everton’s last three outings featured 9, 14 and 9 shots, while allowing 25, 5 and 17 – a profile of a team comfortable without the ball but able to generate chances in bursts. Chelsea’s shot numbers are even more telling: 22 against Newcastle, 15 at Villa and 9 at Arsenal, mirroring their strong xG figures and relentless forward intent. Those attacking metrics support the model’s expected shots, with Chelsea likely to contribute the bulk of efforts on goal.

Final Prediction

Chelsea’s edge lies in their superior attacking volume and recent scoring record, underpinned by significantly higher expected goals than Everton over the last five matches. Everton’s organisation and ability to keep games relatively tight, especially at home, point towards a narrow away win rather than a rout. The key factor to watch will be whether Everton can withstand Chelsea’s sustained pressure from wide areas and set-pieces, where corners and repeated shots could eventually tilt the game in the visitors’ favour.

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