Premier League 2025-2026: Everton vs Liverpool Prediction - 19 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Everton

Home Team
27%
VS

Liverpool

Away Team
50%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 59%
Under 2.5: 41%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 10.2
Expected Shots: 25.3

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 32 21 7 4 62 24 38 70
2 Man City 31 19 7 5 63 28 35 64
3 Man United 32 15 10 7 57 45 12 55
4 Aston Villa 32 16 7 9 43 38 5 55
5 Liverpool 32 15 7 10 52 42 10 52
6 Chelsea 32 13 9 10 53 41 12 48
7 Brentford 32 13 8 11 48 44 4 47
8 Everton 32 13 8 11 39 37 2 47
9 Brighton 32 12 10 10 43 37 6 46
10 Sunderland 32 12 10 10 33 36 -3 46
11 Bournemouth 32 10 15 7 48 49 -1 45
12 Fulham 32 13 5 14 43 46 -3 44
13 Crystal Palace 31 11 9 11 35 36 -1 42
14 Newcastle 32 12 6 14 45 47 -2 42
15 Leeds 32 8 12 12 39 49 -10 36
16 Nott'm Forest 32 8 9 15 32 44 -12 33
17 West Ham 32 8 8 16 40 57 -17 32
18 Tottenham 32 7 9 16 40 51 -11 30
19 Burnley 32 4 8 20 33 63 -30 20
20 Wolves 32 3 8 21 24 58 -34 17

Recent Trends

Everton D W L W W

  • Last Match: D vs Brentford (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Chelsea (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Burnley (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Newcastle (Goals: 3 - 2)

Liverpool W L D L W

  • Last Match: W vs Fulham (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Brighton (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Tottenham (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Wolves (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs West Ham (Goals: 5 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Everton

xG (avg) 1.28
xGA (avg) 1.33
Clean Sheets 2

Liverpool

xG (avg) 1.91
xGA (avg) 1.80
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Liverpool are favoured to take the points at Goodison Park with a 50.0% probability of an away win, compared to 27.0% for Everton and a 23.0% chance of a draw. The model leans towards an open game, with an over 2.5 goals prediction at 59.0%. In the table, Liverpool sit 5th on 52 points chasing Champions League qualification, while Everton are 8th on 47 points and looking to reel in the teams above them.

Match Analysis

Everton come into the derby with solid recent form and a clear identity. In their last three games they have drawn 2-2 away at Brentford, dismantled Chelsea 3-0 at home, and lost 2-0 away at leaders Arsenal. That’s four points from nine against strong opposition, with five goals scored and four conceded. Their recent numbers back up a competitive side: 1.4 goals scored and just 0.8 conceded on average over the last five matches, plus two clean sheets, underline a team that can be stubborn without sacrificing attacking intent. Liverpool’s last three outings have been more stop‑start: a 2-0 home win over Fulham, a 2-1 defeat at Brighton and a 1-1 draw with Tottenham at Anfield. They have taken four points from those fixtures, scoring four and conceding three, but the underlying data suggests they have been creating more than they are finishing. Over their last five games they average 1.2 goals scored but 1.91 expected goals, while conceding 1.4 goals from 1.8 expected against. That gap hints at wastefulness in front of goal and some looseness at the back – an issue Everton will look to exploit.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Everton
Goals in last 5 matches
Liverpool
Goals in last 5 matches
The model sides with an over 2.5 prediction at 59.0%, expecting this derby to produce chances and goals. Two of Everton’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (2-2 at Brentford, 3-0 vs Chelsea), with only the 2-0 defeat at Arsenal falling under. For Liverpool, two of their last three were under 2.5 (2-0 vs Fulham, 1-1 vs Spurs) and one over (1-2 at Brighton), but their recent attacking xG of 1.91 per match, combined with Everton’s 1.278, points to enough opportunities at both ends to tip this away from an under 2.5 outcome.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Everton
Corners in last 5 matches
Liverpool
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total stands at 10.18, which fits the pattern of two sides who do not shy away from sustained attacks. Everton’s last three games have produced corner counts of 5, 12 and 11 in total, while Liverpool’s have seen 15, 12 and 7 – high‑tempo matches with plenty of action in wide areas. That recent history, combined with Liverpool’s front-foot style and Everton’s willingness to break and cross, supports a corners prediction close to double digits or slightly above for this fixture.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Everton
Shots in last 5 matches
Liverpool
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 25.27 suggests a lively contest in and around both penalty areas. Everton’s last three games have featured 31, 22 and 34 total shots, while Liverpool’s have seen 37, 28 and 30 – all above the predicted shots benchmark. Given Liverpool’s strong xG of 1.91 and Everton’s steady 1.278 over recent matches, a shots prediction in the mid‑20s feels realistic, with Liverpool likely to edge the shot count but Everton posing enough threat to keep the tie open.

Final Prediction

Liverpool have the edge thanks to their higher attacking output, stronger xG profile and the greater need to protect a top‑five spot, but Everton’s recent solidity and home form make this far from straightforward. The key factor to watch will be how Liverpool’s attack fares against Everton’s disciplined defence – if the visitors finally align their finishing with their chance creation, the red half of Merseyside should leave Goodison happier.

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