Premier League 2025-2026: Everton vs Man City Prediction - 4 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Everton

Home Team
17%
VS

Man City

Away Team
66%
Draw: 17%
Over 2.5: 59%
Under 2.5: 41%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 25.2
Expected Spread: -1.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 34 22 7 5 64 26 38 73
2 Man City 33 21 7 5 66 29 37 70
3 Man United 34 17 10 7 60 46 14 61
4 Liverpool 34 17 7 10 57 44 13 58
5 Aston Villa 34 17 7 10 47 42 5 58
6 Brighton 34 13 11 10 48 39 9 50
7 Bournemouth 34 11 16 7 52 52 0 49
8 Chelsea 34 13 9 12 53 45 8 48
9 Brentford 34 13 9 12 49 46 3 48
10 Fulham 34 14 6 14 44 46 -2 48
11 Everton 34 13 8 13 41 41 0 47
12 Sunderland 34 12 10 12 36 45 -9 46
13 Crystal Palace 33 11 10 12 36 39 -3 43
14 Newcastle 34 12 6 16 46 50 -4 42
15 Leeds 34 9 13 12 44 51 -7 40
16 Nott'm Forest 34 10 9 15 41 45 -4 39
17 West Ham 34 9 9 16 42 58 -16 36
18 Tottenham 34 8 10 16 43 53 -10 34
19 Burnley 34 4 8 22 34 68 -34 20
20 Wolves 34 3 8 23 24 62 -38 17

Recent Trends

Everton L L D W L

  • Last Match: L vs West Ham (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Liverpool (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Brentford (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Chelsea (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 0 - 2)

Man City W W W D D

  • Last Match: W vs Burnley (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Arsenal (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Chelsea (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs West Ham (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Everton

xG (avg) 1.40
xGA (avg) 1.27
Clean Sheets 1

Man City

xG (avg) 2.53
xGA (avg) 1.07
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Man City are clear favourites here, with a 66.0% chance of taking all three points compared to just 17.0% for Everton and 17.0% for the draw. The model points towards a City win and leans to an over 2.5 goals prediction at 59.0%. In the table, City are 2nd on 70 points and chasing Arsenal, while Everton sit 11th on 47 points, safely mid-table but short of the European race.

Match Analysis

Everton come into this on a three-game winless run: narrow 2-1 defeats to West Ham and Liverpool, followed by a 2-2 draw at Brentford. They’ve at least been competitive, scoring in all three and creating chances (11, 10 and 14 shots respectively), but conceding twice in each shows a defence that can be opened up. Over the last five matches they’ve averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, with xG figures of 1.396 for and 1.27 against, suggesting they are roughly performing to their underlying numbers but lacking control in big moments. City, by contrast, look like a machine in form. Three straight wins — 1-0 at Burnley, 2-1 over Arsenal, 3-0 at Chelsea — underline both their cutting edge and defensive organisation. They’ve averaged 1.6 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded across their last five, with a hefty 2.53 xG for and just 1.066 xG against. That gap between chances created and conceded is significant and underpins why they are favoured: they consistently generate more and better opportunities than their opponents.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Everton
Goals in last 5 matches
Man City
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is backed at 59.0%, and recent scorelines support that lean. All three of Everton’s last games finished with at least three goals (3, 3 and 4 total), while two of Man City’s last three also went over 2.5 (3 vs Arsenal, 3 vs Chelsea, with only the 1-0 at Burnley under). With Everton averaging 1.4 scored and 1.0 conceded, and City at 1.6 scored and 0.4 conceded, plus strong xG numbers on both sides, this looks more like an open contest than a cagey one.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Everton
Corners in last 5 matches
Man City
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to 9.64 total corners in this match. That aligns with recent data: Everton’s last three saw corner counts of 7, 7 and 5, while City’s aggressive play has produced 14, 13 and 16 corners in their fixtures. Given City’s front-foot style and high volume of attacks, the predicted corners figure looks realistic, with the visitors likely to be responsible for the bulk of them.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Everton
Shots in last 5 matches
Man City
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 25.18, which fits both teams’ recent patterns. Everton’s last three matches featured 21, 24 and 31 combined shots, while City games produced 37, 24 and 30. This shots prediction also ties neatly to City’s 2.53 xG average and Everton’s steady 1.396 xG, indicating a match where City carry the main attacking threat but Everton still pose some danger.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Everton wins by X goals. Negative = Man City wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Everton vs Man City with expected spread of -1.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Everton vs Man City
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction stands at -1.15 in favour of Man City, meaning the away side are expected to win by just over a goal on average. Recent form backs that expected spread: Everton’s last three show a combined goal difference of -2 (four scored, six conceded), while City’s is +5 over the same span (six scored, one conceded). With City’s defensive solidity and superior chance creation, a one- to two-goal margin for the title-chasing visitors fits both the numbers and the eye test.

Final Prediction

Man City’s edge comes from their balance: they create more, concede less, and have turned that into results, while Everton’s recent performances have been plucky but porous. The key factor to watch will be how long Everton can disrupt City’s rhythm; if they can’t slow the visitors’ chance production, the league’s second-placed side should justify their strong favourite tag.

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