Premier League 2025-2026: Everton vs Sunderland Prediction - 17 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Everton

Home Team
54%
VS

Sunderland

Away Team
24%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 10.0
Expected Shots: 24.8
Expected Spread: +0.6

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 36 24 7 5 68 26 42 79
2 Man City 36 23 8 5 75 32 43 77
3 Man United 36 18 11 7 63 48 15 65
4 Liverpool 36 17 8 11 60 48 12 59
5 Aston Villa 36 17 8 11 50 46 4 59
6 Bournemouth 36 13 16 7 56 52 4 55
7 Brighton 36 14 11 11 52 42 10 53
8 Brentford 36 14 9 13 52 49 3 51
9 Chelsea 36 13 10 13 55 49 6 49
10 Everton 36 13 10 13 46 46 0 49
11 Fulham 36 14 6 16 44 50 -6 48
12 Sunderland 36 12 12 12 37 46 -9 48
13 Newcastle 36 13 7 16 50 52 -2 46
14 Leeds 36 10 14 12 48 53 -5 44
15 Crystal Palace 36 11 11 14 38 47 -9 44
16 Nott'm Forest 36 11 10 15 45 47 -2 43
17 Tottenham 36 9 11 16 46 55 -9 38
18 West Ham 36 9 9 18 42 62 -20 36
19 Burnley 36 4 9 23 37 73 -36 21
20 Wolves 36 3 9 24 25 66 -41 18

Recent Trends

Everton D D L L D

  • Last Match: D vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Man City (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs West Ham (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Liverpool (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Brentford (Goals: 2 - 2)

Sunderland D D L L W

  • Last Match: D vs Man United (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Wolves (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 0 - 5)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Aston Villa (Goals: 3 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Tottenham (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Everton

xG (avg) 1.27
xGA (avg) 1.27
Clean Sheets 0

Sunderland

xG (avg) 1.41
xGA (avg) 1.97
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Everton are slight but clear favourites at Goodison Park, with a 54.0% chance of victory compared to Sunderland’s 24.0%, and a 23.0% probability of a draw. The model points towards a home win and an expected spread of +0.57 goals, with the over 2.5 prediction also favoured at 53.0%. In the table, Everton sit 10th on 49 points, one place and one point above 12th‑placed Sunderland, underlining how finely poised things are in mid‑table.

Match Analysis

Everton come in on a mixed run: back‑to‑back high‑scoring draws against Crystal Palace (2-2 away) and Man City (3-3 at home) were followed by a narrow 2-1 defeat at West Ham. Those three results show a side that is competitive and creating chances (38 shots across the last three matches) but also fragile at the back, having failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five. Their recent averages – 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game, with xG for and against almost identical (1.268 vs 1.272) – suggest Everton are playing matches that are finely balanced but slightly more open than the league table might imply. Sunderland’s form is wobblier: heavy home defeat to Nott’m Forest (0-5) followed by two draws – 1-1 away at Wolves and 0-0 at home to Man United. They’ve shown they can restrict strong opposition (two clean sheets in their last five) but also that they can collapse defensively, with an average of 1.4 goals conceded recently and xG against at a worrying 1.968. Offensively they’re not blunt – 1.6 goals per game and 1.414 xG – yet their negative recent goal difference and that Forest hammering point to a side that can be exposed, particularly away from home.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Everton
Goals in last 5 matches
Sunderland
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is marginally favoured at 53.0%, and the recent scorelines back that up. Two of Everton’s last three games have gone over 2.5 goals (4 vs Palace, 6 vs City), with only the 1-2 loss at West Ham falling just under. Sunderland’s last three tilt the other way – two matches under 2.5 (0-0 vs Man United, 1-1 at Wolves) and one emphatically over (the 0-5 loss to Forest) – but their averages of 1.6 scored and 1.4 conceded, plus Everton’s 1.8 and 1.2, hint at enough attacking intent on both sides. With xG numbers for and against both hovering around or above 1.2-1.4 for each team, a more open contest seems more likely than a cagey under 2.5 affair.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Everton
Corners in last 5 matches
Sunderland
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.96 total corners, essentially a 10-corner match. Everton’s recent games have produced 15 corners at Palace (10-5), 14 against City (5-9), and just 7 at West Ham (4-3), showing they can be involved in high‑volume matches when the tempo is high. Sunderland’s last three have been steadier – 15 vs Man United (7-8), then 9 at Wolves (3-6) and 9 against Forest (3-6) – which fits with a side often forced to defend in their own third. Given both teams’ willingness to shoot and swing balls into the box, the predicted corners total around the 10 mark feels consistent with their current styles.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Everton
Shots in last 5 matches
Sunderland
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 24.77 suggests a game with a reasonable amount of action in and around both penalty areas. Everton have posted 13, 14 and 11 shots in their last three, while allowing 21, 21 and 10 – that’s 69 total shots across those matches, an average of 23 per game, very close to this shots prediction. Sunderland, meanwhile, have taken 15, 10 and 14 shots and faced 11, 20 and 10, again hovering around that mid‑20s combined total. With both sides’ xG numbers above 1.2 in attack and defence, it makes sense that the expected shots tally sits just under 25.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Everton wins by X goals. Negative = Sunderland wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Everton vs Sunderland with expected spread of +0.6
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Everton vs Sunderland
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction has Everton at -0.57 in Sunderland’s terms (or +0.57 for the home side), indicating the hosts are expected to win by roughly half a goal on average. Everton’s recent goal difference over the last three (6 scored, 7 conceded) is only slightly negative, but against strong opponents, while Sunderland’s (1 scored, 6 conceded) is much worse, skewed by that 0-5 defeat. When you marry those trends with the 54.0% home‑win probability and Sunderland’s higher xG conceded (1.968), the expected spread in Everton’s favour looks justified.

Final Prediction

Everton’s edge lies in their slightly sharper attack, home advantage, and Sunderland’s recent defensive vulnerability, particularly when put under sustained pressure. Sunderland still carry a threat and have shown they can dig in, but their xG against and that Forest collapse are red flags. The key factor to watch will be how Sunderland cope with Everton’s pressure from wide areas – if they concede territory and corners early, the odds tilt even more towards a home win.

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