Premier League 2025-2026: Fulham vs Burnley Prediction - 21 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Fulham

Home Team
72%
VS

Burnley

Away Team
13%
Draw: 15%
Over 2.5: 60%
Under 2.5: 40%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Corners: 10.6
Expected Shots: 25.8

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 31 21 7 3 61 22 39 70
2 Man City 30 18 7 5 60 28 32 61
3 Man United 30 15 9 6 54 41 13 54
4 Aston Villa 30 15 6 9 40 37 3 51
5 Liverpool 30 14 7 9 49 40 9 49
6 Chelsea 30 13 9 8 53 35 18 48
7 Brentford 30 13 6 11 46 42 4 45
8 Everton 30 12 7 11 34 35 -1 43
9 Newcastle 30 12 6 12 43 43 0 42
10 Bournemouth 30 9 14 7 44 46 -2 41
11 Fulham 30 12 5 13 40 43 -3 41
12 Brighton 30 10 10 10 39 36 3 40
13 Sunderland 30 10 10 10 30 35 -5 40
14 Crystal Palace 30 10 9 11 33 35 -2 39
15 Leeds 30 7 11 12 37 48 -11 32
16 Tottenham 30 7 9 14 40 47 -7 30
17 Nott'm Forest 30 7 8 15 28 43 -15 29
18 West Ham 30 7 8 15 36 55 -19 29
19 Burnley 30 4 8 18 32 58 -26 20
20 Wolves 31 3 8 20 24 54 -30 17

Recent Trends

Fulham D L W W L

  • Last Match: D vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs West Ham (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Tottenham (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Sunderland (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 0 - 3)

Burnley D L L D W

  • Last Match: D vs Bournemouth (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Everton (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Brentford (Goals: 3 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Chelsea (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 3 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Fulham

xG (avg) 1.47
xGA (avg) 1.75
Clean Sheets 1

Burnley

xG (avg) 0.63
xGA (avg) 2.24
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Fulham are clear favourites here, with a 72.0% probability of taking all three points against a Burnley side given just a 13.0% chance of an upset and a 15.0% chance of a draw. The model points firmly towards a home win and an over 2.5 goals prediction (60.0% probability) in a game that pits 11th-placed Fulham (41 points) against 19th-placed Burnley (20 points) in a classic top-half vs relegation-battle clash.

Match Analysis

Fulham’s recent form has been mixed, but competitive. A 2-1 home win over Tottenham showed their ability to hurt strong opponents, backed up by an 18–13 shot advantage and dangerous attacking play. That was followed by a narrow 0-1 defeat at home to West Ham despite outshooting the visitors 13–9 and winning the corner count 7–5, underlining that they can dominate territory even when results don’t go their way. The 0-0 at Nottingham Forest was more conservative (5 shots, 4 corners), but still delivered a clean sheet. Over the last five games Fulham are averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, with xG figures of 1.468 for and 1.748 against, suggesting they generally create enough but still allow chances. Burnley arrive in London in real trouble, winless in their last three and leaking goals. The 3-4 home defeat to Brentford highlighted both sides of their game: they can score (3 goals from 12 shots) but remain wide open at the back (4 goals conceded from 16 shots and 8 corners faced). Since then the creativity has dipped: a 0-2 defeat at Everton with just 5 shots, and a 0-0 home draw with Bournemouth where they were second best in territory (15–22 shots, 5–8 corners). Their five-game averages – 1.0 goals scored, 1.8 conceded, and an xG of just 0.628 for versus 2.238 against – paint the picture of a side struggling badly to sustain attacks and constantly under pressure defensively.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Fulham
Goals in last 5 matches
Burnley
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards an over 2.5 prediction at 60.0%, and the recent scorelines back that up more for Fulham than Burnley. Two of Fulham’s last three matches had 3 goals (2-1 vs Spurs, 0-1 vs West Ham, 0-0 vs Forest), so 2 out of 3 went under 2.5 but with enough attacking intent to threaten more. Burnley’s last three have been more uneven: one explosive over 2.5 (3-4 vs Brentford) and two unders (0-2 vs Everton, 0-0 vs Bournemouth). Still, Fulham’s averages of 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded, combined with Burnley conceding 1.8 on average and their high xG against (2.238), suggest there should be enough chances for this not to be an under 2.5 type of grind.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Fulham
Corners in last 5 matches
Burnley
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 10.55, which fits with how both sides have been playing. Fulham’s last three matches produced 9, 12 and 9 corners respectively, as they often push high at Craven Cottage and routinely rack up 5–7 corners themselves while allowing opportunities at the other end. Burnley’s last three have seen 13, 9 and 12 corners, again pointing to open contests where they are frequently forced deep and concede plenty of set-piece situations. That volume of attacking phases and crosses into the box makes a double-digit corners prediction entirely in line with recent evidence.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Fulham
Shots in last 5 matches
Burnley
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
With an expected shots figure of 25.77, this looks set to be a busy afternoon for both goalkeepers. Fulham’s last three games have featured 16, 26 and 31 total shots, while Burnley’s have delivered 37, 19 and 28, so regular matches for both sides are already landing in the mid-20s or higher. Given Fulham’s xG of 1.468 per game and Burnley’s very high xG conceded of 2.238, a shots prediction in this range feels realistic: Fulham should generate plenty of attempts, with Burnley contributing enough at the other end to keep the total healthy.

Final Prediction

Fulham’s superior league position, stronger recent performances and far better attacking numbers give them a clear edge over a Burnley side trapped in the relegation zone and regularly out-created. Burnley’s defensive frailty, highlighted by 58 goals conceded and poor recent xG against, could be decisive against a home team that likes to attack at Craven Cottage. The key factor to watch will be whether Burnley can withstand early pressure; if Fulham score first, the game is likely to open up exactly as the predictions suggest.

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