Premier League 2025-2026: Fulham vs Everton Prediction - 7 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Fulham

Home Team
55%
VS

Everton

Away Team
22%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 51%
Under 2.5: 49%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 24 16 5 3 46 17 29 53
2 Man City 24 14 5 5 49 23 26 47
3 Aston Villa 24 14 4 6 35 26 9 46
4 Man United 24 11 8 5 44 36 8 41
5 Chelsea 24 11 7 6 42 27 15 40
6 Liverpool 24 11 6 7 39 33 6 39
7 Brentford 24 11 3 10 36 32 4 36
8 Sunderland 24 9 9 6 27 26 1 36
9 Fulham 24 10 4 10 34 35 -1 34
10 Everton 24 9 7 8 26 27 -1 34
11 Newcastle 24 9 6 9 33 33 0 33
12 Bournemouth 24 8 9 7 40 43 -3 33
13 Brighton 24 7 10 7 34 32 2 31
14 Tottenham 24 7 8 9 35 33 2 29
15 Crystal Palace 24 7 8 9 25 29 -4 29
16 Leeds 24 6 8 10 31 42 -11 26
17 Nott'm Forest 24 7 5 12 24 35 -11 26
18 West Ham 24 5 5 14 29 48 -19 20
19 Burnley 24 3 6 15 25 47 -22 15
20 Wolves 24 1 5 18 15 45 -30 8

Recent Trends

Fulham L W L W D

  • Last Match: L vs Man United (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Brighton (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Leeds (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Chelsea (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Liverpool (Goals: 2 - 2)

Everton D D W D L

  • Last Match: D vs Brighton (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Leeds (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Aston Villa (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Wolves (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Brentford (Goals: 2 - 4)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Fulham

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.06
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.66
# Clean Sheets: 0

Everton

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.26
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.60
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Fulham are slight favourites at Craven Cottage, with a 55.0% probability of taking all three points compared to Everton’s 22.0%, and a 23.0% chance of a draw. The model leans towards a home win and expects goals, with over 2.5 goals given a 51.0% probability and both teams favoured to score. In the table, Fulham sit 9th and Everton 10th, level on 34 points and separated only by goal difference (both on -1).

Match Analysis

Fulham’s form has been mixed over their last three games: a narrow 3–2 defeat at Man United, a strong 2–1 home win over Brighton, and a 1–0 loss at Leeds. They are finding the net regularly (1.6 goals per game over the last five), but their defence has been leaky with 1.2 conceded on average and no clean sheets in that span. Interestingly, their expected goals for (1.056) is lower than their actual scoring, while their expected goals against (1.664) is higher than what they’re conceding, hinting at some reliance on sharp finishing and goalkeeper interventions. Everton arrive on a steadier run: a tight 1–0 away win at Aston Villa followed by back-to-back 1–1 draws against Leeds and Brighton. They’ve been harder to break down recently, conceding just 0.6 goals per game over the last five and keeping one clean sheet, despite an expected goals against figure of 1.596 suggesting they do allow chances. In attack, Everton are creating slightly more than they score (0.8 goals vs 1.264 expected), pointing to wastefulness in front of goal.

Final Prediction

Fulham’s home edge and slightly stronger recent scoring record give them the nod in a finely balanced mid-table clash. The key factor to watch will be whether Everton can finally match their expected goals with clinical finishing, especially against a Fulham side that has struggled to keep clean sheets.

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