Premier League 2025-2026: Fulham vs Newcastle Prediction - 24 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Fulham

Home Team
44%
VS

Newcastle

Away Team
30%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 59%
Under 2.5: 41%
Goal: 61%
No Goal: 39%
Expected Corners: 10.0
Expected Shots: 25.8
Expected Spread: +0.2

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 37 25 7 5 69 26 43 82
2 Man City 36 23 8 5 75 32 43 77
3 Man United 37 19 11 7 66 50 16 68
4 Aston Villa 37 18 8 11 54 48 6 62
5 Liverpool 37 17 8 12 62 52 10 59
6 Bournemouth 36 13 16 7 56 52 4 55
7 Brighton 37 14 11 12 52 43 9 53
8 Brentford 37 14 10 13 54 51 3 52
9 Sunderland 37 13 12 12 40 47 -7 51
10 Chelsea 36 13 10 13 55 49 6 49
11 Newcastle 37 14 7 16 53 53 0 49
12 Everton 37 13 10 14 47 49 -2 49
13 Fulham 37 14 7 16 45 51 -6 49
14 Leeds 37 11 14 12 49 53 -4 47
15 Crystal Palace 37 11 12 14 40 49 -9 45
16 Nott'm Forest 37 11 10 16 47 50 -3 43
17 Tottenham 36 9 11 16 46 55 -9 38
18 West Ham 37 9 9 19 43 65 -22 36
19 Burnley 37 4 9 24 37 74 -37 21
20 Wolves 37 3 10 24 26 67 -41 19

Recent Trends

Fulham D L L W D

  • Last Match: D vs Wolves (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Bournemouth (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Aston Villa (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Brentford (Goals: 0 - 0)

Newcastle W D W L L

  • Last Match: W vs West Ham (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Brighton (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Bournemouth (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Fulham

xG (avg) 1.78
xGA (avg) 1.26
Clean Sheets 2

Newcastle

xG (avg) 1.07
xGA (avg) 1.84
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Fulham are marginally favoured at Craven Cottage, with a 44.0% chance of victory against Newcastle’s 30.0%, and a 25.0% probability of a draw, giving the edge to the 13th‑placed hosts over the side sitting 11th, both locked on 49 points. The model leans towards a home win and a lively contest: the over 2.5 prediction is backed by a 59.0% probability, with goals expected at both ends (61.0% chance that both teams score).

Match Analysis

Fulham come into this on a three‑match winless run (two defeats and a draw), but there is more nuance beneath the results. A 0-3 defeat at Arsenal underlined the gap to the very top sides, yet at home to Bournemouth they created plenty – 14 shots and 11 corners – despite losing 0-1. The 1-1 draw away at Wolves showed more balance, with 13 shots and a narrow corner edge. Over the last five matches, Fulham’s attack has quietly ticked over at 1.2 goals per game from a strong 1.782 xG, while conceding only 0.8 goals on average with 1.258 xG against and two clean sheets, suggesting a side generally tougher to break down than their mid‑table position implies. Newcastle’s recent form has been more erratic: two impressive 3-1 home wins over Brighton and West Ham sandwiched around a 1-1 draw at Nottingham Forest. Those scorelines flatter their underlying numbers; over the last five games they have averaged just 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, with a modest 1.066 xG for and a worrying 1.84 xG against, plus no clean sheets. That points to a team still conceding chances even when winning, and in a tight mid‑table clash away from home, that defensive looseness tilts the balance slightly towards Fulham.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Fulham
Goals in last 5 matches
Newcastle
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 59.0% feels justified. Two of Newcastle’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (both 3-1 wins), while only one of Fulham’s last three cleared that mark (the 0-3 loss at Arsenal), the other two finishing 1-0 and 1-1 under 2.5. Even so, Fulham’s recent averages of 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded, alongside 1.782 xG for, and Newcastle’s 0.8 scored, 1.2 conceded with 1.84 xG against, hint at enough chances and defensive gaps on both sides to support an over rather than an under 2.5 outcome.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Fulham
Corners in last 5 matches
Newcastle
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a reasonably busy afternoon, with 10.02 total corners expected. Fulham’s recent numbers are strong in this department: 6-3 at Wolves, 11-2 at home to Bournemouth and 4-3 at Arsenal show they regularly force opportunities from wide areas. Newcastle have been more up and down on corners – 9-1 and 2-10 at home, and 1-2 away – suggesting a game state‑driven pattern. With both teams willing to attack, the predicted corners figure around ten fits a match where wing play and pressure in the final third should be prominent.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Fulham
Shots in last 5 matches
Newcastle
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction sits at 25.76 total attempts, consistent with how both sides have been playing. Fulham’s last three produced 13, 14 and 10 shots respectively, while facing 11, 10 and 18. Newcastle have generated 15, 16 and 13 shots in their last three, conceding 15, 17 and 13. Those numbers align closely with the expected shots figure and marry well with the xG data, indicating that both teams should create a healthy volume of opportunities even if finishing quality varies.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Fulham wins by X goals. Negative = Newcastle wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Fulham vs Newcastle with expected spread of +0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Fulham vs Newcastle
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is narrow, with an expected spread of +0.18 in Fulham’s favour, reflecting only a slight home advantage. Over their last three games Fulham are -3 on aggregate (1 scored, 5 conceded), while Newcastle are +4 (7 scored, 3 conceded), but the Magpies’ underlying xG against of 1.84 over five matches tempers that recent goal rush. Combined with the 44.0% home win probability versus 30.0% for the visitors, the expected spread supports Fulham as marginal favourites rather than clear dominators.

Final Prediction

Fulham’s edge comes from a sturdier defensive profile and stronger underlying attacking numbers at home, set against a Newcastle side that is still allowing too many chances despite recent wins. With both teams capable of creating from wide areas and a high likelihood of goals, a narrow Fulham victory in an open, chance‑filled encounter looks the most plausible storyline, with Newcastle’s defence under the spotlight throughout.

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