Premier League 2025-2026: Fulham vs Tottenham Prediction - 1 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Fulham

Home Team
59%
VS

Tottenham

Away Team
19%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 52%
Under 2.5: 48%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Shots: 25.1

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 28 18 7 3 56 21 35 61
2 Man City 27 17 5 5 56 25 31 56
3 Aston Villa 27 15 6 6 38 28 10 51
4 Man United 27 13 9 5 48 37 11 48
5 Chelsea 27 12 9 6 48 31 17 45
6 Liverpool 27 13 6 8 42 35 7 45
7 Brentford 27 12 4 11 40 37 3 40
8 Bournemouth 27 9 11 7 43 45 -2 38
9 Everton 27 10 7 10 29 31 -2 37
10 Fulham 27 11 4 12 38 41 -3 37
11 Newcastle 27 10 6 11 38 39 -1 36
12 Sunderland 27 9 9 9 28 33 -5 36
13 Crystal Palace 27 9 8 10 29 32 -3 35
14 Brighton 27 8 10 9 36 34 2 34
15 Leeds 27 7 10 10 37 46 -9 31
16 Tottenham 27 7 8 12 37 41 -4 29
17 Nott'm Forest 27 7 6 14 25 39 -14 27
18 West Ham 27 6 7 14 32 49 -17 25
19 Burnley 27 4 7 16 29 52 -23 19
20 Wolves 28 1 7 20 18 51 -33 10

Recent Trends

Fulham W L L L W

  • Last Match: W vs Sunderland (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Everton (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Man United (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Brighton (Goals: 2 - 1)

Tottenham L L L D D

  • Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Newcastle (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Man United (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Man City (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Burnley (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Fulham

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.34
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.70
# Clean Sheets: 0

Tottenham

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.26
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.28
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Fulham are favoured to take all three points here, with a 59.0% probability of a home win against a Tottenham side sitting down in 16th, eight places below the 10th‑placed Cottagers. The model leans towards goals as well, with an over 2.5 prediction at 52.0% and both teams expected to score (53.0% probability for “goal”). With Spurs drifting away from the European places and Fulham pushing the top half, the momentum looks to be with Marco Silva’s team.

Match Analysis

Fulham come into this on a mixed run, but with signs of sharpness in the final third. They swept aside Sunderland 3-1 away, yet that was sandwiched between defeats to Manchester City (0-3) and Everton (1-2). Across those three matches they’ve scored four and conceded six, and although they haven’t kept a clean sheet in their last five games, their attacking threat is consistent: 1.6 goals scored on average in that period, backed up by 1.342 expected goals per game. Tottenham, by contrast, are stuck in a worrying spiral. Three straight defeats – 1-4 at home to Arsenal, 1-2 at home to Newcastle and 0-2 away at Manchester United – leave them looking fragile at both ends. They’ve managed just three goals in those matches while conceding eight, and have also failed to register a single clean sheet in their last five. Their underlying numbers (1.0 goals scored, 1.4 conceded, and 1.258 xG for versus 1.28 xG against over the last five) suggest they’re not completely toothless, but they’re consistently coming out on the wrong side of the key moments.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Fulham
Goals in last 5 matches
Tottenham
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction has a slight edge at 52.0%, and recent scorelines back that up. Two of Fulham’s last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (3-1 at Sunderland, 1-2 v Everton), with only the 0-3 defeat to City staying just under. Tottenham mirror that pattern: the 1-4 loss to Arsenal went comfortably over 2.5, while the 1-2 defeat to Newcastle and 0-2 at United fell just short. With Fulham averaging 1.6 scored and 1.2 conceded, and Spurs at 1.0 scored and 1.4 conceded, plus both sides’ xG figures sitting around the 1.3 mark, another open game with chances at both ends looks more likely than an under 2.5 grind.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Fulham
Shots in last 5 matches
Tottenham
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 25.11, so the shots prediction points to a lively contest in and around both penalty areas. Fulham’s last three matches saw balanced shot counts: 12-12 at Sunderland, 14-13 at City and 13-16 against Everton – they both create and allow chances. Tottenham have been on the back foot: 6-20 v Arsenal, 16-21 v Newcastle and 7-23 at United, conceding heavy shot volumes. Those patterns fit with the xG profile of both teams and reinforce the expectation of around mid‑20s in total attempts, with Fulham likely edging the tally.

Final Prediction

Fulham’s edge comes from a more reliable attack, stronger recent displays and home advantage against a Spurs side on a three-game losing streak and struggling to control matches. If the Cottagers can turn their steady xG output into early goals, Tottenham’s fragile confidence could be exposed again. The key battle to watch will be Fulham’s forwards testing a Spurs back line that has been under siege for weeks.

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