Premier League 2025-2026: Fulham vs West Ham Prediction - 4 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Fulham

Home Team
77%
VS

West Ham

Away Team
11%
Draw: 13%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Shots: 25.3

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 29 19 7 3 58 22 36 64
2 Man City 28 18 5 5 57 25 32 59
3 Man United 28 14 9 5 50 38 12 51
4 Aston Villa 28 15 6 7 38 30 8 51
5 Liverpool 28 14 6 8 47 37 10 48
6 Chelsea 28 12 9 7 49 33 16 45
7 Brentford 28 13 4 11 44 40 4 43
8 Everton 28 11 7 10 32 33 -1 40
9 Fulham 28 12 4 12 40 42 -2 40
10 Bournemouth 28 9 12 7 44 46 -2 39
11 Brighton 28 9 10 9 38 35 3 37
12 Sunderland 28 9 10 9 29 34 -5 37
13 Newcastle 28 10 6 12 40 42 -2 36
14 Crystal Palace 28 9 8 11 30 34 -4 35
15 Leeds 28 7 10 11 37 47 -10 31
16 Tottenham 28 7 8 13 38 43 -5 29
17 Nott'm Forest 28 7 6 15 26 41 -15 27
18 West Ham 28 6 7 15 34 54 -20 25
19 Burnley 28 4 7 17 32 56 -24 19
20 Wolves 29 2 7 20 20 51 -31 13

Recent Trends

Fulham W W L L L

  • Last Match: W vs Tottenham (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Sunderland (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Everton (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Man United (Goals: 2 - 3)

West Ham L D D W L

  • Last Match: L vs Liverpool (Goals: 2 - 5)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Bournemouth (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Man United (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Burnley (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Chelsea (Goals: 2 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Fulham

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.46
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.79
# Clean Sheets: 0

West Ham

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.44
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.10
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Fulham are strong favourites here, with a 77.0% probability of taking all three points against an out‑of‑form West Ham side that sit 18th, inside the relegation zone, while Fulham are comfortably in 9th. The model leans towards an over 2.5 prediction at 53.0%, hinting at a reasonably open contest. With Fulham chasing the teams above them and West Ham fighting to escape the bottom three, there is plenty at stake.

Match Analysis

Fulham come into this on the back of two wins in their last three: a 2-1 home victory over Tottenham and a 3-1 away success at Sunderland, either side of a 3-0 defeat at Man City. Those results underline a side that is dangerous going forward but still vulnerable, with 5 goals scored and 5 conceded across the three fixtures. Their recent averages tell the same story: 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game over the last five, backed by 1.464 expected goals created and 1.792 expected goals allowed, and notably no clean sheets in that run. West Ham’s recent form is more fragile. They were torn apart 5-2 at Liverpool, but steadied themselves with back-to-back home draws: 0-0 against Bournemouth and 1-1 versus Man United. That sequence – one defeat and two draws – shows a team still searching for balance. Over their last five, they average 1.6 goals scored but a worrying 2.4 conceded, with 1.442 xG for and 2.1 xG against. The two clean sheets in that stretch suggest they can shut up shop in spells, but the heavy goals‑against numbers point to persistent defensive issues.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Fulham
Goals in last 5 matches
West Ham
Goals in last 5 matches
The model goes for over 2.5 goals with a 53.0% probability, edging this away from an under 2.5 call. Two of Fulham’s last three matches (2-1 vs Spurs, 3-1 at Sunderland) went over 2.5, with only the 3-0 loss at Man City also clearing the line in total goals, so all three actually finished above the threshold. West Ham, by contrast, have seen just one of their last three go over – the chaotic 5-2 loss at Liverpool – with the other two finishing 0-0 and 1-1. Still, both teams’ recent averages (Fulham 1.8 scored/1.4 conceded, West Ham 1.6 scored/2.4 conceded) and their xG numbers support a match that can easily tip over 2.5.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Fulham
Shots in last 5 matches
West Ham
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction sits at 25.27 expected shots overall, in line with both teams’ recent numbers. Fulham’s last three outings have featured 31, 24 and 27 total shots, while West Ham’s have seen 29, 30 and 16, showing they can both create and allow a fair volume of attempts. That shot volume tallies neatly with their xG profiles: neither side is ruthlessly efficient, so they tend to need multiple chances to convert, pushing up the expected shots figure.

Final Prediction

Fulham’s edge comes from a stronger league position, better recent results and home advantage against a West Ham side leaking too many goals. If Fulham maintain their attacking rhythm and West Ham’s defence performs as the numbers suggest, the hosts should justify their status as clear favourites. The key factor to watch will be how often West Ham’s back line is exposed by Fulham’s pressure, especially in wide areas that also drive those high corners and shots counts.

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