Premier League 2025-2026: Leeds vs Brentford Prediction - 21 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Leeds

Home Team
36%
VS

Brentford

Away Team
39%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 24.2

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 31 21 7 3 61 22 39 70
2 Man City 30 18 7 5 60 28 32 61
3 Man United 30 15 9 6 54 41 13 54
4 Aston Villa 30 15 6 9 40 37 3 51
5 Liverpool 30 14 7 9 49 40 9 49
6 Chelsea 30 13 9 8 53 35 18 48
7 Brentford 30 13 6 11 46 42 4 45
8 Everton 30 12 7 11 34 35 -1 43
9 Newcastle 30 12 6 12 43 43 0 42
10 Bournemouth 30 9 14 7 44 46 -2 41
11 Fulham 30 12 5 13 40 43 -3 41
12 Brighton 30 10 10 10 39 36 3 40
13 Sunderland 30 10 10 10 30 35 -5 40
14 Crystal Palace 30 10 9 11 33 35 -2 39
15 Leeds 30 7 11 12 37 48 -11 32
16 Tottenham 30 7 9 14 40 47 -7 30
17 Nott'm Forest 30 7 8 15 28 43 -15 29
18 West Ham 30 7 8 15 36 55 -19 29
19 Burnley 30 4 8 18 32 58 -26 20
20 Wolves 31 3 8 20 24 54 -30 17

Recent Trends

Leeds D L L D D

  • Last Match: D vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Sunderland (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Aston Villa (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Chelsea (Goals: 2 - 2)

Brentford D D W L D

  • Last Match: D vs Wolves (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Bournemouth (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Burnley (Goals: 4 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Brighton (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Arsenal (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Leeds

xG (avg) 1.60
xGA (avg) 1.75
Clean Sheets 1

Brentford

xG (avg) 1.31
xGA (avg) 2.05
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Brentford are marginal favourites here, with a 39.0% chance of victory compared to Leeds’ 36.0%, and the model edging towards an away win in a tight contest. The game is also leaning towards an under 2.5 goals prediction (47.0% probability), suggesting a cagey affair rather than a shoot-out. In the table, Brentford sit comfortably in 7th on 45 points, while Leeds are 15th with 32 points and still glancing nervously over their shoulders.

Match Analysis

Leeds come into this one on a three‑match winless run, and what really jumps off the page is the lack of cutting edge: three straight games without scoring, despite out‑shooting both Sunderland (18–3) and Man City (14–14, level) at Elland Road. They’ve taken just one point from those three fixtures, but the underlying picture is a bit kinder – 1.6 expected goals on average in their last five matches compared to only 0.8 actually scored, which hints at wasteful finishing rather than a non‑existent attack. Defensively, 1.4 goals conceded per game and only one clean sheet in five point to a side that can be got at. Brentford, by contrast, have been involved in chaos more than once lately: a 4–3 win at Burnley and a 2–2 draw with Wolves either side of a 0–0 at Bournemouth. They’ve averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over their last five, mirroring Leeds’ defensive record but offering more punch in the final third. Interestingly, their expected goals conceded (2.046 per game) is significantly higher than the actual 1.4 let in, suggesting they’ve allowed plenty of chances and ridden their luck at times. With European places in reach from 7th, they arrive with momentum and a more reliable attack than the hosts.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Leeds
Goals in last 5 matches
Brentford
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards under 2.5 with a 47.0% probability, and recent scorelines back that cautious stance. All three of Leeds’ last games have finished under 2.5 goals (0–0, 0–1, 0–1), while for Brentford it’s been a mixed bag: two high‑scoring matches (2–2 and 4–3) and one goalless draw. Across the last five, Leeds’ 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, plus Brentford’s 1.6 for and 1.4 against, are broadly in line with a tight contest; xG figures (1.6 for Leeds, 1.312 for Brentford) reinforce an under 2.5 rather than a wild over 2.5 prediction.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Leeds
Corners in last 5 matches
Brentford
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around an average game, with 9.53 expected total corners. Leeds’ last three matches have produced 12, 11 and 8 corners respectively, driven in part by their volume of shots and sustained home pressure, especially in the 9–2 corner count against Sunderland. Brentford’s games have been patchier – totals of 6, 7 and 12 – reflecting a side that can sit and counter as well as attack. Over 90 minutes, the mix of Leeds’ front‑foot approach at Elland Road and Brentford’s ability to break and win set‑pieces should land close to that predicted corners figure.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Leeds
Shots in last 5 matches
Brentford
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
With 24.22 expected shots in the match, this shapes up as a game of reasonable activity in both boxes. Leeds have racked up 18 and 14 efforts in their last two home games, while Brentford’s recent outings have seen them register 10, 5 and 16 attempts, with opponents also creating regularly against them. Those numbers, together with Leeds’ 1.6 xG and Brentford’s 1.312 xG over their last five, support an attacking but not frantic shots prediction around the mid‑20s for total expected shots.

Final Prediction

Brentford’s sharper recent finishing and higher league position give them a slight edge, even if the probabilities underline how finely balanced this fixture is. Leeds’ inability to convert promising xG into goals is the big concern, especially against a Brentford side that doesn’t need many chances to score. The key factor to watch will be Leeds’ efficiency in front of goal: if their forwards finally align performance with numbers, the away‑win tilt could easily be overturned.

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