Premier League 2025-2026: Leeds vs Burnley Prediction - 1 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Leeds

Home Team
73%
VS

Burnley

Away Team
13%
Draw: 14%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Corners: 10.1
Expected Shots: 27.7
Expected Spread: +1.5

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 34 22 7 5 64 26 38 73
2 Man City 33 21 7 5 66 29 37 70
3 Man United 34 17 10 7 60 46 14 61
4 Liverpool 34 17 7 10 57 44 13 58
5 Aston Villa 34 17 7 10 47 42 5 58
6 Brighton 34 13 11 10 48 39 9 50
7 Bournemouth 34 11 16 7 52 52 0 49
8 Chelsea 34 13 9 12 53 45 8 48
9 Brentford 34 13 9 12 49 46 3 48
10 Fulham 34 14 6 14 44 46 -2 48
11 Everton 34 13 8 13 41 41 0 47
12 Sunderland 34 12 10 12 36 45 -9 46
13 Crystal Palace 33 11 10 12 36 39 -3 43
14 Newcastle 34 12 6 16 46 50 -4 42
15 Leeds 34 9 13 12 44 51 -7 40
16 Nott'm Forest 34 10 9 15 41 45 -4 39
17 West Ham 34 9 9 16 42 58 -16 36
18 Tottenham 34 8 10 16 43 53 -10 34
19 Burnley 34 4 8 22 34 68 -34 20
20 Wolves 34 3 8 23 24 62 -38 17

Recent Trends

Leeds D W W D D

  • Last Match: D vs Bournemouth (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Wolves (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Man United (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Brentford (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 0 - 0)

Burnley L L L L D

  • Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Brighton (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Fulham (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Bournemouth (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Leeds

xG (avg) 1.93
xGA (avg) 1.17
Clean Sheets 3

Burnley

xG (avg) 1.00
xGA (avg) 2.15
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Leeds are clear favourites at Elland Road, with a 73.0% chance of taking all three points against a Burnley side given just a 13.0% probability of an upset (draw at 14.0%). The model also leans towards a tight affair in terms of goals, with an under 2.5 prediction despite a near coin-flip at 49.0% for over 2.5. In the table, Leeds sit 15th on 40 points, while Burnley are marooned in 19th with 20 points and running out of road in the relegation fight.

Match Analysis

Leeds come into this with real momentum: an away draw at Bournemouth (2-2), followed by back-to-back wins over Wolves (3-0) and Manchester United (2-1). There’s a growing solidity about them too – three clean sheets in their last five and only 0.6 goals conceded on average in that spell, while still producing 1.2 goals per game. Crucially, their attacking numbers look sustainable: 1.926 expected goals (xG) per match over the last five underlines that they are regularly creating enough chances to win games. Burnley are in a very different place: three straight defeats – 0-1 to Man City, 1-4 at Nottingham Forest and 0-2 at home to Brighton – with a combined 1-7 scoreline. The advanced metrics paint the same worrying picture: they concede 2.4 goals per game on average across their last five, with 2.146 xG against, while only generating 0.998 xG themselves. One clean sheet in that period is not enough for a team that has shipped 68 league goals and sits 14 points behind Leeds with two more games played.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Leeds
Goals in last 5 matches
Burnley
Goals in last 5 matches
The model sides with under 2.5 as the more likely outcome, even though the over 2.5 prediction stands at a competitive 49.0%. Two of Leeds’ last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (2-2 at Bournemouth, 3-0 v Wolves, then a 2-1 at United which also cleared the line), but their recent defensive tightening and 1.2 goals scored / 0.6 conceded hint at more controlled contests. Burnley have seen two of their last three also go over 2.5 (1-4 at Forest, sandwiched by 0-1 and 0-2 defeats), yet their modest 1.2 goals scored and sub‑1.0 xG per game suggest they may struggle to contribute heavily to the scoreline here.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Leeds
Corners in last 5 matches
Burnley
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 10.09, which fits with both teams’ recent numbers and an expected Leeds-on-the-front-foot pattern. Leeds’ last three have seen them involved in 13, 11 and 15 total corners respectively, often conceding more than they take as opponents chase games. Burnley’s corners prediction also points towards a busy afternoon in their own third: their last three have produced 14, 8 and 10 total corners, with City and Brighton pinning them back. With Leeds likely to attack and Burnley forced deep, a total close to the expected corners mark around 10 seems plausible.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Leeds
Shots in last 5 matches
Burnley
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction sits at 27.72 total attempts, reflecting Leeds’ recent willingness to pull the trigger and Burnley’s tendency to allow efforts. Leeds have taken 10, 17 and 15 shots in their last three, while facing 17, 7 and 20, matching their healthy 1.926 xG average. Burnley, by contrast, have attempted 9, 4 and 10 shots, but have allowed 28, 10 and 13 – numbers that support the expected shots total and point to another match where they spend long spells defending.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Leeds wins by X goals. Negative = Burnley wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Leeds vs Burnley with expected spread of +1.5
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Leeds vs Burnley
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is firmly in Leeds’ favour at +1.5, meaning the home side are expected to win by around one to two goals. Recently, Leeds are +3 on goal difference across their last three games (7 scored, 4 conceded), while Burnley are -6 (1 scored, 7 conceded). That expected spread lines up cleanly with the 73.0% home-win probability and the contrasting defensive records: Leeds’ three clean sheets in five against Burnley’s average of 2.4 conceded per game.

Final Prediction

Leeds have the form, the numbers and the league position to justify their strong favourite status, especially against a Burnley side leaking chances and goals. The key factor to watch will be whether Burnley can cope with Leeds’ chance creation – if the visitors can’t close down shots and crosses, the expected spread and home win prediction are likely to be borne out.

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