Premier League 2025-2026: Leeds vs Man City Prediction - 28 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Leeds

Home Team
8%
VS

Man City

Away Team
83%
Draw: 9%
Over 2.5: 56%
Under 2.5: 44%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%
Expected Shots: 24.7

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 28 18 7 3 56 21 35 61
2 Man City 27 17 5 5 56 25 31 56
3 Aston Villa 27 15 6 6 38 28 10 51
4 Man United 27 13 9 5 48 37 11 48
5 Chelsea 27 12 9 6 48 31 17 45
6 Liverpool 27 13 6 8 42 35 7 45
7 Brentford 27 12 4 11 40 37 3 40
8 Bournemouth 27 9 11 7 43 45 -2 38
9 Everton 27 10 7 10 29 31 -2 37
10 Fulham 27 11 4 12 38 41 -3 37
11 Newcastle 27 10 6 11 38 39 -1 36
12 Sunderland 27 9 9 9 28 33 -5 36
13 Crystal Palace 27 9 8 10 29 32 -3 35
14 Brighton 27 8 10 9 36 34 2 34
15 Leeds 27 7 10 10 37 46 -9 31
16 Tottenham 27 7 8 12 37 41 -4 29
17 Nott'm Forest 27 7 6 14 25 39 -14 27
18 West Ham 27 6 7 14 32 49 -17 25
19 Burnley 27 4 7 16 29 52 -23 19
20 Wolves 28 1 7 20 18 51 -33 10

Recent Trends

Leeds D D W L D

  • Last Match: D vs Aston Villa (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Chelsea (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Everton (Goals: 1 - 1)

Man City W W W D W

  • Last Match: W vs Newcastle (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Fulham (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Liverpool (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Tottenham (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Wolves (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Leeds

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.92
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.79
# Clean Sheets: 0

Man City

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.75
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.48
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Man City are strong favourites here, with an 83.0% probability of an away win against a Leeds side given just an 8.0% chance, and the draw rated at 9.0%. City come into Elland Road chasing league leaders Arsenal from 2nd place on 56 points, while Leeds sit 15th on 31 points and still glancing over their shoulders at the relegation battle. The model also points to an over 2.5 goals outcome (56.0% probability), suggesting a game with chances at both ends.

Match Analysis

Leeds arrive in decent spirits after a three-game unbeaten run: a 3-1 home win over Nottingham Forest, followed by gritty away draws at Chelsea (2-2) and Aston Villa (1-1). They’ve shown they can trade punches with stronger sides, but the numbers underline their vulnerability: 37 scored and 46 conceded this season, and in the last five games they’ve allowed 1.4 goals on average with no clean sheets. Their attacking output is respectable, with 1.8 goals per match and an average xG of 1.922, but they’re also conceding chances at an xG against of 1.788, which is dangerous against a side of City’s quality. City’s recent form is ruthless rather than spectacular: three straight wins against Newcastle (2-1), Fulham (3-0) and Liverpool (2-1). They’ve been efficient rather than explosive, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over their last five, but the underlying numbers are stronger: 1.748 xG for and 1.48 xG against, with two clean sheets in that spell. From 56 goals scored and 25 conceded in 27 league games, they remain one of the division’s most balanced sides, and their control of matches should test a Leeds defence that has yet to shut anyone out in its last five.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Leeds
Goals in last 5 matches
Man City
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is favoured at 56.0%, and recent scorelines back that up. Two of Leeds’ last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (3-1 vs Forest, 2-2 at Chelsea), with only the 1-1 at Villa falling under. All three of City’s most recent league games landed on exactly three goals (2-1, 3-0, 2-1), so also over 2.5. With Leeds averaging 1.8 scored and 1.4 conceded and City’s xG profile (1.748 for, 1.48 against) hinting at regular chances, an open game looks more likely than a cagey under 2.5 contest.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Leeds
Shots in last 5 matches
Man City
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.67, which suits the way both sides have been playing. Leeds’ last three have seen them post 14, 4 and 14 attempts while allowing 16, 19 and 16, suggesting they’re often on the back foot but still capable of generating efforts, especially at Elland Road. City have registered 15, 13 and 17 shots in their last three, while allowing 13, 14 and 15, numbers that align with their xG of 1.748 for and 1.48 against. A shots prediction in the mid‑20s matches a scenario where City probe constantly and Leeds look to break whenever possible.

Final Prediction

Man City’s edge comes from their superior league position, balanced underlying numbers, and a defensive unit more capable of limiting damage than Leeds’ leaky back line. Leeds’ attacking threat and high xG mean they shouldn’t be written off completely, especially at home, but sustaining their level over 90 minutes against title challengers is a different test. Key to the game will be whether Leeds can cope with City’s territorial pressure without collapsing defensively – if they can’t, the visitors’ quality should eventually tell.

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