Premier League 2025-2026: Leeds vs Nott'm Forest Prediction - 6 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Leeds

Home Team
44%
VS

Nott'm Forest

Away Team
31%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 24 16 5 3 46 17 29 53
2 Man City 24 14 5 5 49 23 26 47
3 Aston Villa 24 14 4 6 35 26 9 46
4 Man United 24 11 8 5 44 36 8 41
5 Chelsea 24 11 7 6 42 27 15 40
6 Liverpool 24 11 6 7 39 33 6 39
7 Brentford 24 11 3 10 36 32 4 36
8 Sunderland 24 9 9 6 27 26 1 36
9 Fulham 24 10 4 10 34 35 -1 34
10 Everton 24 9 7 8 26 27 -1 34
11 Newcastle 24 9 6 9 33 33 0 33
12 Bournemouth 24 8 9 7 40 43 -3 33
13 Brighton 24 7 10 7 34 32 2 31
14 Tottenham 24 7 8 9 35 33 2 29
15 Crystal Palace 24 7 8 9 25 29 -4 29
16 Leeds 24 6 8 10 31 42 -11 26
17 Nott'm Forest 24 7 5 12 24 35 -11 26
18 West Ham 24 5 5 14 29 48 -19 20
19 Burnley 24 3 6 15 25 47 -22 15
20 Wolves 24 1 5 18 15 45 -30 8

Recent Trends

Leeds L D W L D

  • Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Everton (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Fulham (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Newcastle (Goals: 3 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Man United (Goals: 1 - 1)

Nott'm Forest D W D W L

  • Last Match: D vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Brentford (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Arsenal (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs West Ham (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Aston Villa (Goals: 1 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Leeds

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.60
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.87
# Clean Sheets: 1

Nott'm Forest

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.87
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.63
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Leeds are slight favourites at Elland Road, with a 44.0% chance of victory compared to Nott’m Forest’s 31.0%, and a draw at 26.0%. The game is expected to be relatively open, with over 2.5 goals favoured at 53.0% and both teams backed to score (55.0%). With Leeds 16th and Forest 17th, level on 26 points and sharing the same -11 goal difference, this is a classic six-pointer in the lower half of the table.

Match Analysis

Leeds come in from a mixed run: a 4-0 home thrashing by Arsenal, a solid 1-1 away draw at Everton, and a narrow 1-0 home win over Fulham. Their recent numbers show exactly why they’re hard to read: they’ve averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over the last five matches, with expected goals for at 1.604 and against at 1.866. That points to a side that creates reasonably well but leaves gaps at the back, underlined by just one clean sheet in that stretch. Forest, meanwhile, look more conservative but steady. In their last three, they’ve drawn 1-1 with Crystal Palace, won 2-0 away at Brentford and held Arsenal to a 0-0 at home. Their five-game averages – 1.0 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, with 0.872 expected goals for and 1.626 against – suggest they struggle to generate many chances but can dig in defensively, as shown by two clean sheets in that period.

Final Prediction

Leeds get the edge mainly due to home advantage and a more productive attack, even if they’re vulnerable defensively. Forest’s compact approach and recent clean sheets mean they can make this tight, but their lower attacking output tilts things towards the hosts. The key factor to watch will be whether Leeds’ front line can turn their expected chances into goals against Forest’s increasingly resilient defence.

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