Premier League 2025-2026: Leeds vs Sunderland Prediction - 3 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Leeds

Home Team
71%
VS

Sunderland

Away Team
14%
Draw: 15%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Shots: 24.8

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 29 19 7 3 58 22 36 64
2 Man City 28 18 5 5 57 25 32 59
3 Man United 28 14 9 5 50 38 12 51
4 Aston Villa 28 15 6 7 38 30 8 51
5 Liverpool 28 14 6 8 47 37 10 48
6 Chelsea 28 12 9 7 49 33 16 45
7 Brentford 28 13 4 11 44 40 4 43
8 Everton 28 11 7 10 32 33 -1 40
9 Fulham 28 12 4 12 40 42 -2 40
10 Bournemouth 28 9 12 7 44 46 -2 39
11 Brighton 28 9 10 9 38 35 3 37
12 Sunderland 28 9 10 9 29 34 -5 37
13 Newcastle 28 10 6 12 40 42 -2 36
14 Crystal Palace 28 9 8 11 30 34 -4 35
15 Leeds 28 7 10 11 37 47 -10 31
16 Tottenham 28 7 8 13 38 43 -5 29
17 Nott'm Forest 28 7 6 15 26 41 -15 27
18 West Ham 28 6 7 15 34 54 -20 25
19 Burnley 28 4 7 17 32 56 -24 19
20 Wolves 29 2 7 20 20 51 -31 13

Recent Trends

Leeds L D D W L

  • Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Aston Villa (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Chelsea (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 0 - 4)

Sunderland D L L L W

  • Last Match: D vs Bournemouth (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Fulham (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Liverpool (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Burnley (Goals: 3 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Leeds

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.62
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.98
# Clean Sheets: 0

Sunderland

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.84
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.10
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Leeds are clear favourites at Elland Road, with a 71.0% chance of taking all three points against Sunderland, who are given just a 14.0% probability of an away win (draw at 15.0%). The model points to an over 2.5 prediction for goals (53.0% chance), suggesting a reasonably open contest. In the table, Sunderland sit 12th on 37 points, while Leeds are 15th on 31 and still glancing nervously over their shoulders at the bottom three.

Match Analysis

Leeds come in off a tight 0-1 home defeat to Man City followed by away draws at Aston Villa (1-1) and Chelsea (2-2). They’ve shown resilience against strong opposition but also a tendency to concede chances: they’ve allowed 14, 16 and 19 shots in those three outings. The advanced numbers back that up – across the last five games they’ve conceded an average of 1.4 goals from 1.976 expected goals, with no clean sheets in that spell. Going forward, 1.0 goal scored per match from 1.616 expected suggests they are creating enough to be more dangerous than the raw scorelines show. Sunderland, 12th but sliding, arrive on a poor run: a 1-1 draw at Bournemouth bookended by home defeats to Fulham (1-3) and Liverpool (0-1). The theme is worrying defensively – they are conceding 2.2 goals per game over the last five, from 2.096 expected, which points to consistent pressure on their back line rather than bad luck. In attack they’ve averaged just 0.6 goals from 0.84 expected, underlining a lack of cutting edge. Against a Leeds side that tends to play front-foot football at home, those numbers tilt the balance heavily towards the hosts.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Leeds
Goals in last 5 matches
Sunderland
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards an over 2.5 prediction at 53.0%, with Leeds’ recent pattern hinting at goals: one of their last three went over 2.5 (the 2-2 at Chelsea), but the other two were tight, low-scoring games. Sunderland have seen two of their last three finish under 2.5 (1-1 at Bournemouth, 0-1 v Liverpool), with only the 1-3 loss to Fulham clearing the line. Still, Leeds’ mix of 1.0 scored and 1.4 conceded per game, paired with Sunderland’s 0.6 scored and 2.2 conceded and both sides’ xG profiles, supports the idea that if Leeds click in attack this could tip over rather than under 2.5.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Leeds
Shots in last 5 matches
Sunderland
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 24.78 suggests a match with regular efforts on goal but not an absolute shoot-out. Leeds’ recent shot totals are 14, 14 and just 4 (away to Chelsea, where they were penned back), while they’ve faced 14, 16 and 19. Sunderland have attempted 8, 12 and 11 in their last three, but have been peppered at the other end, facing 21, 12 and 23 shots respectively. That volume against Sunderland, married to Leeds’ xG of 1.616 per game, makes an overall shots prediction around the 25 mark look well-aligned with the expected shots model.

Final Prediction

Leeds’ stronger underlying numbers, home advantage and Sunderland’s leaky recent form explain why the hosts are so heavily fancied. If Leeds can turn their expected goals into actual goals and pin Sunderland back as Bournemouth, Fulham and Liverpool have done, they should have the edge. The key factor to watch will be how often Sunderland can escape the press and relieve pressure; if they can’t, Leeds’ sustained attacks are likely to decide the contest.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel