Premier League 2025-2026: Leeds vs Tottenham Prediction - 4 Oct 2025

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Leeds

Home Team
43%
VS

Tottenham

Away Team
32%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Liverpool 6 5 0 1 12 7 5 15
2 Arsenal 6 4 1 1 12 3 9 13
3 Crystal Palace 6 3 3 0 8 3 5 12
4 Tottenham 6 3 2 1 11 4 7 11
5 Sunderland 6 3 2 1 7 4 3 11
6 Bournemouth 6 3 2 1 8 7 1 11
7 Man City 6 3 1 2 14 6 8 10
8 Chelsea 6 2 2 2 11 8 3 8
9 Everton 6 2 2 2 7 6 1 8
10 Brighton 6 2 2 2 9 9 0 8
11 Fulham 6 2 2 2 7 8 -1 8
12 Leeds 6 2 2 2 6 9 -3 8
13 Brentford 6 2 1 3 9 11 -2 7
14 Man United 6 2 1 3 7 11 -4 7
15 Newcastle 6 1 3 2 4 5 -1 6
16 Aston Villa 6 1 3 2 4 6 -2 6
17 Nott'm Forest 6 1 2 3 5 10 -5 5
18 Burnley 6 1 1 4 6 13 -7 4
19 West Ham 6 1 1 4 6 14 -8 4
20 Wolves 6 0 1 5 4 13 -9 1

Recent Trends

Leeds D W L D L

  • Last Match: D vs Bournemouth (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Wolves (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Fulham (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Newcastle (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 0 - 5)

Tottenham D D W L W

  • Last Match: D vs Wolves (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Brighton (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs West Ham (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Bournemouth (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Man City (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Leeds

xG (avg) 1.70
xGA (avg) 0.68
Clean Sheets 1

Tottenham

xG (avg) 1.33
xGA (avg) 1.15
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Leeds and Tottenham is expected to be a closely contested affair, with Leeds being favored to secure a victory at home with a probability of 43.0%. Meanwhile, Tottenham’s chances of winning stand at 32.0%, and the likelihood of a draw is 26.0%. The game is anticipated to have less than 2.5 goals, with a 46.0% probability of that outcome. In the Premier League standings, Tottenham sits in 4th position with 11 points, while Leeds is in 12th place with 8 points.

Match Analysis

Leeds' recent form has been somewhat inconsistent. In their last three matches, they have managed a win against Wolves (3-1) away, but their home performance against Bournemouth ended in a 2-2 draw, and they suffered a loss to Fulham (0-1) away. Despite these mixed results, Leeds has demonstrated resilience with an average of 1.0 goals scored per game and a solid defensive record, conceding only 0.67 goals on average in their last five outings. Tottenham, on the other hand, has shown a strong attacking flair, scoring an average of 2.33 goals in their last five matches. They recorded a significant away victory against West Ham (3-0) and secured draws with Wolves (1-1) and Brighton (2-2). Tottenham's defense has been relatively tight, conceding an average of just 0.67 goals across their recent games. Despite their higher goals scored, their expected goals metric suggests they might not maintain this scoring rate in the long term.

Final Prediction

Leeds holds a slight edge in this match, primarily due to their home advantage and Tottenham's mixed recent performances. A key factor to watch will be how Leeds' defense manages Tottenham's potent attack, which has been effective but perhaps overperforming their expected goals. Fans can expect a tactical battle, with Leeds looking to exploit any defensive lapses from Tottenham to secure a crucial victory.

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