Premier League 2025-2026: Liverpool vs Brentford Prediction - 24 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Liverpool

Home Team
68%
VS

Brentford

Away Team
16%
Draw: 17%
Over 2.5: 59%
Under 2.5: 41%
Goal: 60%
No Goal: 40%
Expected Corners: 10.7
Expected Shots: 26.2
Expected Spread: +1.0

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 37 25 7 5 69 26 43 82
2 Man City 36 23 8 5 75 32 43 77
3 Man United 37 19 11 7 66 50 16 68
4 Aston Villa 37 18 8 11 54 48 6 62
5 Liverpool 37 17 8 12 62 52 10 59
6 Bournemouth 36 13 16 7 56 52 4 55
7 Brighton 37 14 11 12 52 43 9 53
8 Brentford 37 14 10 13 54 51 3 52
9 Sunderland 37 13 12 12 40 47 -7 51
10 Chelsea 36 13 10 13 55 49 6 49
11 Newcastle 37 14 7 16 53 53 0 49
12 Everton 37 13 10 14 47 49 -2 49
13 Fulham 37 14 7 16 45 51 -6 49
14 Leeds 37 11 14 12 49 53 -4 47
15 Crystal Palace 37 11 12 14 40 49 -9 45
16 Nott'm Forest 37 11 10 16 47 50 -3 43
17 Tottenham 36 9 11 16 46 55 -9 38
18 West Ham 37 9 9 19 43 65 -22 36
19 Burnley 37 4 9 24 37 74 -37 21
20 Wolves 37 3 10 24 26 67 -41 19

Recent Trends

Liverpool L D L W W

  • Last Match: L vs Aston Villa (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Chelsea (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Man United (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Everton (Goals: 2 - 1)

Brentford D L W L D

  • Last Match: D vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs West Ham (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Man United (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Fulham (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Liverpool

xG (avg) 1.50
xGA (avg) 1.35
Clean Sheets 0

Brentford

xG (avg) 1.08
xGA (avg) 1.96
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Liverpool are strong favourites at Anfield, with a 68.0% chance of victory against a Brentford side given just a 16.0% probability of an upset, and the draw at 17.0%. The home side, currently 5th on 59 points, are pushing to secure Champions League football, while 8th‑placed Brentford (52 points) are chasing a late climb into the European picture. The model leans towards an open game, backing over 2.5 goals with a 59.0% probability.

Match Analysis

Liverpool come into this with just one point from their last three, losing 4-2 at Aston Villa and 3-2 at Manchester United, either side of a 1-1 draw at home to Chelsea. Those results underline a vulnerability without a single clean sheet in their last five, despite averaging 2.4 goals scored and only 1.0 conceded across that wider spell – a sign they usually control games but have recently been punished in key moments. Their underlying numbers remain solid: 1.496 expected goals created and 1.346 expected goals conceded per match in the last five suggest sustained attacking pressure but a defence that allows chances. Brentford’s form is steadier if unspectacular: a 3-0 home win over West Ham, a 3-0 defeat at Manchester City, and a 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace. That’s four points from nine, with two clean sheets in their last five but also an average of 1.6 goals conceded, highlighting inconsistency at the back. The Bees’ recent xG figures – 1.078 for and a worrying 1.956 against per game – show they are giving up plenty of opportunities, which is a concern heading to Anfield against a side that regularly tests the opposition box.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Liverpool
Goals in last 5 matches
Brentford
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is favoured here, with a 59.0% chance of at least three goals. Two of Liverpool’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (4-2 vs Villa, 3-2 vs United), while only the 1-1 draw with Chelsea stayed under. For Brentford, two of their last three were under 2.5 (3-0, 0-3, 2-2), but combined with Liverpool’s 2.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded on average and both sides’ xG profiles, the balance tilts towards another high‑scoring contest rather than an under 2.5 outcome.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Liverpool
Corners in last 5 matches
Brentford
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a lively game, with 10.71 total corners expected. Liverpool’s recent matches produced 9, 7 and 5 corners respectively, while Brentford’s delivered 13, 12 and 8, showing both teams are involved in games with plenty of set‑piece opportunities. With Liverpool typically pushing high at home and Brentford capable of forcing corners through direct play and wide attacks, the predicted corners figure fits the way both sides like to get the ball into the box.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Liverpool
Shots in last 5 matches
Brentford
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction has this match producing 26.16 total efforts on goal. Liverpool’s last three saw 16, 14 and 31 combined shots, while Brentford’s had totals of 30, 29 and 27, all numbers in line with the expected shots figure. Given Liverpool’s average xG of 1.496 and Brentford conceding an average xG of 1.956, both teams should generate enough attacking moments to hit that mid‑20s range in attempts.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Liverpool wins by X goals. Negative = Brentford wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Liverpool vs Brentford with expected spread of +1.0
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Liverpool vs Brentford
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction sits at +0.96 in Liverpool’s favour, effectively expecting the home side to win by about a goal. Over the last three, Liverpool’s goal difference is -3 (scoring 5, conceding 8), while Brentford’s is +2 (5 scored, 3 conceded), but the model still leans heavily towards Liverpool, in line with their 68.0% win probability. That expected spread reflects Liverpool’s stronger attacking metrics and Brentford’s tendency to concede good chances, especially away.

Final Prediction

Liverpool’s edge lies in their superior attacking output and underlying numbers, combined with home advantage and a clear statistical tilt in their favour. Brentford’s recent solidity at home hasn’t fully translated on the road, particularly against front-foot sides. The key factor to watch will be how often Liverpool can isolate Brentford’s back line in the final third; if they do it regularly, the scoreline is likely to justify both the home win and the over 2.5 goals call.

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