Premier League 2025-2026: Liverpool vs Chelsea Prediction - 9 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Liverpool

Home Team
53%
VS

Chelsea

Away Team
25%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 58%
Under 2.5: 42%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%
Expected Corners: 10.3
Expected Shots: 25.6
Expected Spread: +0.6

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 35 23 7 5 67 26 41 76
2 Man City 34 21 8 5 69 32 37 71
3 Man United 35 18 10 7 63 48 15 64
4 Liverpool 35 17 7 11 59 47 12 58
5 Aston Villa 35 17 7 11 48 44 4 58
6 Bournemouth 35 12 16 7 55 52 3 52
7 Brentford 35 14 9 12 52 46 6 51
8 Brighton 35 13 11 11 49 42 7 50
9 Chelsea 35 13 9 13 54 48 6 48
10 Everton 35 13 9 13 44 44 0 48
11 Fulham 35 14 6 15 44 49 -5 48
12 Sunderland 35 12 11 12 37 46 -9 47
13 Newcastle 35 13 6 16 49 51 -2 45
14 Leeds 35 10 13 12 47 52 -5 43
15 Crystal Palace 34 11 10 13 36 42 -6 43
16 Nott'm Forest 35 11 9 15 44 46 -2 42
17 Tottenham 35 9 10 16 45 54 -9 37
18 West Ham 35 9 9 17 42 61 -19 36
19 Burnley 35 4 8 23 35 71 -36 20
20 Wolves 35 3 9 23 25 63 -38 18

Recent Trends

Liverpool L W W W L

  • Last Match: L vs Man United (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Everton (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Fulham (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Brighton (Goals: 1 - 2)

Chelsea L L L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Brighton (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Man United (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Everton (Goals: 0 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Liverpool

xG (avg) 1.63
xGA (avg) 1.71
Clean Sheets 1

Chelsea

xG (avg) 2.03
xGA (avg) 1.57
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Liverpool are favoured to take all three points at Anfield with a 53.0% chance of a home win, compared to just 25.0% for Chelsea and a 22.0% probability of a draw. The model leans towards an open game, with an over 2.5 prediction at 58.0% and Liverpool looking to cement their grip on 4th place, while 9th‑placed Chelsea try to revive their fading push towards the European spots.

Match Analysis

Liverpool come in with two wins from their last three, beating Crystal Palace 3-1 at home and Everton 2-1 away, either side of a narrow 3-2 defeat at Old Trafford. Those scorelines underline their blend of attacking threat and defensive vulnerability: 7 goals scored and 5 conceded across the three matches. The advanced numbers back that up – they’ve averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded in their last five games, but their xG tells a slightly different story: 1.626 expected goals for and 1.708 against per game, suggesting they’ve been more clinical than the underlying chances might justify, and not entirely watertight at the back. Chelsea arrive on Merseyside off a bruising run of three straight defeats, losing 3-1 at home to Nottingham Forest and 3-0 away to Brighton before a 1-0 home loss to Manchester United. That’s 1 goal scored and 7 conceded in three games, yet their underlying figures hint at more promise than the results show. Over their last five, Chelsea have averaged 1.6 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, with 2.03 xG for and 1.574 xG against – they’re creating enough to be dangerous, but failing to convert and being punished at key moments. With no clean sheets in that stretch, their fragility in both boxes is the big concern heading into Anfield.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Liverpool
Goals in last 5 matches
Chelsea
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is favoured at 58.0%, and recent scorelines support that. Two of Liverpool’s last three matches – 3-2 at Man United and 3-1 v Crystal Palace – went over 2.5 goals, with only the 2-1 win at Everton narrowly staying below the 3.5 mark but still lively. For Chelsea, two of their last three also finished over 2.5 (3-1 v Forest, 3-0 at Brighton), with only the 1-0 defeat to United going under 2.5. Liverpool’s average of 2.4 scored and 1.2 conceded in their last five, against Chelsea’s 1.6 for and 2.0 against, points to both defences being gettable. The xG profiles – 1.626 for and 1.708 against Liverpool, 2.03 for and 1.574 against Chelsea – suggest a game with chances at both ends, fitting the over 2.5 prediction rather than an under 2.5 grind.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Liverpool
Corners in last 5 matches
Chelsea
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model’s corners prediction sets the expected total at 10.3, which sits neatly in line with what both sides have been producing. Liverpool’s last three have featured 5, 13 and 7 total corners (vs Man United, Palace and Everton respectively), while Chelsea’s have had 11, 11 and 8, including a huge swing of 10-1 in their favour against Forest. Both teams tend to attack with width and commit numbers forward, which naturally drives up the predicted corners. With Liverpool pressing high at Anfield and Chelsea still generating plenty of set-piece opportunities even in defeat, a double‑digit corner count fits their recent patterns.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Liverpool
Shots in last 5 matches
Chelsea
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 25.65, and the recent evidence suggests that’s realistic. Liverpool’s last three matches have produced combined shot counts of 31 (at United), 23 (v Palace) and 24 (at Everton). Chelsea’s games have been similarly busy: 27 against Forest, 21 at Brighton and 25 versus United. Given Chelsea’s last three home games included 21 shots in both the Forest and United matches, and Liverpool racked up 18 attempts at Old Trafford, the shots prediction aligns well with their attacking intent. The strong xG numbers for both sides (Liverpool’s 1.626, Chelsea’s 2.03 per match) indicate they’re not just shooting from distance but creating real chances, supporting a healthy expected shots total.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Liverpool wins by X goals. Negative = Chelsea wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Liverpool vs Chelsea with expected spread of +0.6
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Liverpool vs Chelsea
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction has Liverpool -0.57, meaning the home side are expected to win by just over half a goal on average. Across their last three, Liverpool’s goal difference is +1 (7 scored, 6 conceded), while Chelsea’s is a stark -6 (1 scored, 7 conceded), highlighting why the expected spread tilts red. With Liverpool sitting 4th and Chelsea 9th, the 53.0% home‑win probability ties neatly into that -0.57 expected spread. Liverpool’s superior recent scoring form and Chelsea’s failure to keep a clean sheet in their last five give the hosts the clearer edge, even if both teams’ xG profiles suggest Chelsea have the potential to make it competitive.

Final Prediction

Liverpool’s sharper finishing, stronger league position and Anfield advantage combine to make them deserved favourites in this one. Chelsea’s underlying numbers hint that they can create chances, but their recent defensive record and lack of clean sheets leave them vulnerable against a side averaging 2.4 goals per game over their last five. The key factor to watch will be how Chelsea cope with Liverpool’s intensity in the final third; if they buckle under pressure again, the predicted home win and over 2.5 goals scenario is likely to play out.

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