Premier League 2025-2026: Liverpool vs Crystal Palace Prediction - 25 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Liverpool

Home Team
73%
VS

Crystal Palace

Away Team
13%
Draw: 14%
Over 2.5: 57%
Under 2.5: 43%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 10.0
Expected Shots: 24.6
Expected Spread: +1.0

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Man City 33 21 7 5 66 29 37 70
2 Arsenal 33 21 7 5 63 26 37 70
3 Man United 33 16 10 7 58 45 13 58
4 Aston Villa 33 17 7 9 47 41 6 58
5 Liverpool 33 16 7 10 54 43 11 55
6 Brighton 34 13 11 10 48 39 9 50
7 Bournemouth 34 11 16 7 52 52 0 49
8 Chelsea 34 13 9 12 53 45 8 48
9 Brentford 33 13 9 11 48 44 4 48
10 Everton 33 13 8 12 40 39 1 47
11 Sunderland 33 12 10 11 36 40 -4 46
12 Fulham 33 13 6 14 43 46 -3 45
13 Crystal Palace 32 11 10 11 35 36 -1 43
14 Newcastle 33 12 6 15 46 49 -3 42
15 Leeds 34 9 13 12 44 51 -7 40
16 Nott'm Forest 33 9 9 15 36 45 -9 36
17 West Ham 33 8 9 16 40 57 -17 33
18 Tottenham 33 7 10 16 42 53 -11 31
19 Burnley 34 4 8 22 34 68 -34 20
20 Wolves 33 3 8 22 24 61 -37 17

Recent Trends

Liverpool W W L D L

  • Last Match: W vs Everton (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Fulham (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Brighton (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Tottenham (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Wolves (Goals: 1 - 2)

Crystal Palace D W D W L

  • Last Match: D vs West Ham (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Newcastle (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Leeds (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Tottenham (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Man United (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Liverpool

xG (avg) 1.96
xGA (avg) 1.32
Clean Sheets 1

Crystal Palace

xG (avg) 1.21
xGA (avg) 1.45
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Liverpool are firm favourites at Anfield with a 73.0% chance of victory, compared to just 13.0% for Crystal Palace and a 14.0% probability of a draw. The model points to a home win and an over 2.5 goals prediction, with a 57.0% likelihood of three or more goals. In the table, Liverpool sit 5th on 55 points chasing Champions League football, while Palace are 13th on 43 points, comfortably mid-table.

Match Analysis

Liverpool come into this on a mixed but generally positive run: two wins and one defeat in their last three. They edged Everton 2-1 away and beat Fulham 2-0 at home before a 2-1 loss at Brighton, showing both their attacking punch and occasional defensive lapse. Over the last five matches they’ve averaged 2.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, with xG numbers of 1.956 for and 1.324 against, underlining a side that consistently creates more than it allows. Crystal Palace’s recent form is steadier rather than spectacular: unbeaten in three, with two goalless draws against West Ham and Leeds either side of a 2-1 win over Newcastle. That run suggests organisation and resilience, especially at the back. Their last five games show 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded on average, with xG of 1.206 for and 1.446 against, hinting that they’ve sometimes conceded chances but have not always been punished.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Liverpool
Goals in last 5 matches
Crystal Palace
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is backed at 57.0%, and recent scorelines support a leaning towards goals. Two of Liverpool’s last three matches finished with three goals (2-1 at Everton, 1-2 at Brighton), while only the 2-0 win over Fulham came in under 2.5. Palace, by contrast, have seen just one of their last three go over 2.5 (the 2-1 win over Newcastle), with the other two ending 0-0. Liverpool’s averages of 2.6 scored and 1.2 conceded, alongside their stronger xG, give this fixture real potential to tip over 2.5 despite Palace’s recent low-scoring draws.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Liverpool
Corners in last 5 matches
Crystal Palace
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 10.0 total corners, which fits the numbers on both sides. Liverpool’s last three have produced 7, 15 and 12 corners respectively, as their front-foot style naturally generates set-piece situations. Palace’s matches have seen 10, 6 and 11 corners, with their organised shape still allowing for spells of pressure and wide deliveries. Put together, the predicted corners tally of 10.0 looks a fair reflection of two teams who work the flanks and force blocks in the box.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Liverpool
Shots in last 5 matches
Crystal Palace
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure sits at 24.56, consistent with Liverpool’s habit of racking up attempts. They have taken 14, 18 and 12 shots in their last three games, while allowing 10, 19 and 16. Palace, meanwhile, have posted 9, 11 and 12 shots, conceding 9, 7 and 10. This shots prediction is in line with Liverpool’s superior xG and attacking volume, suggesting a match where the hosts do most of the shooting but Palace still pose some threat.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Liverpool wins by X goals. Negative = Crystal Palace wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Liverpool vs Crystal Palace with expected spread of +1.0
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Liverpool vs Crystal Palace
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction has Liverpool favoured by 1.03 goals, reflecting expectations of a relatively clear home win. Recent results back that up: Liverpool’s last three show a combined goal difference of +1 (five scored, four conceded), while Palace’s is +1 as well (two goals for, one against) but built on far tighter, lower-scoring games. With Liverpool’s higher scoring rate and stronger underlying attacking metrics, the expected spread aligns closely with their 73.0% win probability.

Final Prediction

Liverpool’s superior firepower, stronger xG profile and home advantage explain why they are so heavily favoured to take the points and push their top‑five push. Palace’s discipline and recent clean sheets mean they won’t be easy to break down, but the key factor to watch will be whether Liverpool’s attacking tempo can stretch Palace’s back line early and turn sustained pressure into goals.

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