Premier League 2025-2026: Liverpool vs Fulham Prediction - 11 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Liverpool

Home Team
70%
VS

Fulham

Away Team
14%
Draw: 16%
Over 2.5: 59%
Under 2.5: 41%
Goal: 61%
No Goal: 39%
Expected Corners: 10.6
Expected Shots: 25.2

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 31 21 7 3 61 22 39 70
2 Man City 30 18 7 5 60 28 32 61
3 Man United 31 15 10 6 56 43 13 55
4 Aston Villa 31 16 6 9 42 37 5 54
5 Liverpool 31 14 7 10 50 42 8 49
6 Chelsea 31 13 9 9 53 38 15 48
7 Brentford 31 13 7 11 46 42 4 46
8 Everton 31 13 7 11 37 35 2 46
9 Fulham 31 13 5 13 43 44 -1 44
10 Brighton 31 11 10 10 41 37 4 43
11 Sunderland 31 11 10 10 32 36 -4 43
12 Newcastle 31 12 6 13 44 45 -1 42
13 Bournemouth 31 9 15 7 46 48 -2 42
14 Crystal Palace 30 10 9 11 33 35 -2 39
15 Leeds 31 7 12 12 37 48 -11 33
16 Nott'm Forest 31 8 8 15 31 43 -12 32
17 Tottenham 31 7 9 15 40 50 -10 30
18 West Ham 31 7 8 16 36 57 -21 29
19 Burnley 31 4 8 19 33 61 -28 20
20 Wolves 31 3 8 20 24 54 -30 17

Recent Trends

Liverpool L D L W W

  • Last Match: L vs Brighton (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Tottenham (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Wolves (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs West Ham (Goals: 5 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 1 - 0)

Fulham W D L W W

  • Last Match: W vs Burnley (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs West Ham (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Tottenham (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Sunderland (Goals: 3 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Liverpool

xG (avg) 2.25
xGA (avg) 1.15
Clean Sheets 1

Fulham

xG (avg) 1.23
xGA (avg) 1.65
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Liverpool are clear favourites here, with a 70.0% probability of a home win against a Fulham side given just a 14.0% chance, and a 16.0% likelihood of a draw. Jürgen Klopp’s team sit 5th on 49 points and are still chasing a Champions League spot, while Fulham are 9th on 44 points and pushing to stay in the top half. The model points towards an open game, with an over 2.5 goals prediction at 59.0%.

Match Analysis

Liverpool come into this on a poor run of results but not of performances. Defeats away to Brighton (1-2) and Wolves (1-2) sandwiched a 1-1 home draw with Tottenham, with all three games showing Liverpool on the front foot: they out-shot Spurs 17-13 and Wolves 19-4, and won the corner count heavily in both away losses. Over their last five matches they’ve averaged 2.4 goals scored and only 1.4 conceded, backed up by strong underlying numbers of 2.252 expected goals for and 1.15 against, suggesting they are creating enough chances to win more than they have. Fulham’s form has been more mixed. A deserved 3-1 home win over Burnley followed a cagey 0-0 at Nottingham Forest and a narrow 0-1 home defeat to West Ham. Across those three fixtures they’ve scored four and conceded two, but the broader five-game picture is less impressive: just 1.0 goal scored on average and 1.6 conceded, with 1.226 xG for and 1.654 xG against. That hints at a side that often allows better chances than it creates, a worrying sign when travelling to Anfield.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Liverpool
Goals in last 5 matches
Fulham
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 59.0% looks well-founded. Two of Liverpool’s last three league games finished with three goals (1-2 at Brighton, 1-2 at Wolves), with only the 1-1 draw with Tottenham going under 2.5. Fulham’s last three have mostly been tighter – the 3-1 win over Burnley went over, but the 0-0 at Forest and 0-1 loss to West Ham both went under 2.5. However, Liverpool’s recent averages of 2.4 scored and 1.4 conceded, alongside their 2.252 xG for, point towards a higher-scoring contest, especially if Fulham’s 1.654 xG conceded continues.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Liverpool
Corners in last 5 matches
Fulham
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 10.55, which fits the recent patterns of both sides. Liverpool’s last three produced corner counts of 8-4 at Brighton, 3-4 against Spurs and 11-2 at Wolves – heavily in their favour in two away games, reflecting sustained attacking pressure. Fulham’s matches have been relatively even on corners (6-6 vs Burnley, 4-5 at Forest, 7-5 vs West Ham), suggesting a team that neither dominates nor is pinned back for long spells. Given Liverpool’s tendency to attack in waves at home, this corners prediction around the 10–11 mark aligns with two proactive, front-foot teams.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Liverpool
Shots in last 5 matches
Fulham
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 25.25 also matches what both have been producing. Liverpool’s last three saw them take 12, 17 and 19 shots, while facing 16, 13 and just 4 – strong evidence of their ability to generate volume, even in defeat. Fulham have attempted 22, 5 and 13 shots and conceded 9, 11 and 9, underlining their willingness to let games open up, particularly at Craven Cottage. With Liverpool’s high xG numbers and Fulham’s tendency to allow chances (1.654 xG conceded per game over the last five), a shots prediction in the mid‑20s feels realistic.

Final Prediction

Liverpool’s superior attacking output, stronger xG profile and the urgency of their push for a top‑five finish give them a clear edge over a Fulham side whose underlying numbers are trending the other way. Fulham have shown they can compete, but sustaining that away at a high-volume Liverpool attack will be a different task. The key factor to watch will be whether Fulham can withstand Liverpool’s pressure in the first hour; if they crack early, the scoreline could quickly reflect the pre-match probabilities.

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