Premier League 2025-2026: Liverpool vs Tottenham Prediction - 15 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Liverpool

Home Team
95%
VS

Tottenham

Away Team
2%
Draw: 3%
Over 2.5: 61%
Under 2.5: 39%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Shots: 27.2

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 30 20 7 3 59 22 37 67
2 Man City 29 18 6 5 59 27 32 60
3 Man United 29 14 9 6 51 40 11 51
4 Aston Villa 29 15 6 8 39 34 5 51
5 Chelsea 29 13 9 7 53 34 19 48
6 Liverpool 29 14 6 9 48 39 9 48
7 Brentford 29 13 5 11 44 40 4 44
8 Everton 29 12 7 10 34 33 1 43
9 Bournemouth 29 9 13 7 44 46 -2 40
10 Fulham 29 12 4 13 40 43 -3 40
11 Sunderland 29 10 10 9 30 34 -4 40
12 Newcastle 29 11 6 12 42 43 -1 39
13 Crystal Palace 29 10 8 11 33 35 -2 38
14 Brighton 29 9 10 10 38 36 2 37
15 Leeds 29 7 10 12 37 48 -11 31
16 Tottenham 29 7 8 14 39 46 -7 29
17 Nott'm Forest 29 7 7 15 28 43 -15 28
18 West Ham 29 7 7 15 35 54 -19 28
19 Burnley 29 4 7 18 32 58 -26 19
20 Wolves 30 3 7 20 22 52 -30 16

Recent Trends

Liverpool L W W W L

  • Last Match: L vs Wolves (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs West Ham (Goals: 5 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Sunderland (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 1 - 2)

Tottenham L L L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Fulham (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Newcastle (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Man United (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Liverpool

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.33
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.95
# Clean Sheets: 2

Tottenham

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.27
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.56
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Liverpool are heavily fancied to take all three points at Anfield, with a towering 95.0% probability of a home win against a struggling Tottenham side given just a 2.0% chance, and only 3.0% on the draw. The model leans towards an open contest with an over 2.5 goals prediction at 61.0%. In the table, Liverpool are 6th on 48 points and pushing hard for the top‑5 Champions League spots, while Tottenham languish in 16th on 29 points, uncomfortably close to the relegation fight.

Match Analysis

Liverpool come into this on a strong run of results if not always dominance. They’ve won two of their last three – a 5-2 demolition of West Ham at home and a tight 1-0 away win at Nottingham Forest – with only a 2-1 slip at Wolves interrupting their momentum. Across the last five matches they are averaging 2.2 goals scored and just 1.2 conceded, backed up by impressive underlying numbers: 2.328 expected goals created per game and only 0.95 expected against, plus two clean sheets in that spell. That blend of cutting edge and defensive solidity is exactly what you’d expect from a side pushing for the top five. Tottenham, by contrast, arrive on Merseyside in worrying form. Three straight defeats – 3-1 at home to Crystal Palace, 2-1 away at Fulham and 4-1 at home to Arsenal – have dragged them down towards the bottom three. They’ve scored only 1.0 goal per game across their last five, while conceding 1.8, and crucially they’ve failed to keep a single clean sheet in that period. Their advanced metrics paint a similar picture: 1.274 expected goals for and 1.558 expected against per match, suggesting they are being out‑created and out‑finished. Up against a Liverpool side that consistently wins the xG battle, Spurs look outgunned on current evidence.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Liverpool
Goals in last 5 matches
Tottenham
Goals in last 5 matches
The model points firmly towards goals, with an over 2.5 prediction at 61.0%. Two of Liverpool’s last three games have cleared the line comfortably – the 5-2 win over West Ham and the 2-1 defeat at Wolves – with only the 1-0 at Forest going under 2.5. For Tottenham, two of their recent three have also gone over (3-1 v Crystal Palace and 4-1 v Arsenal), with just the 2-1 loss at Fulham hovering close but still above the mark. Given Liverpool’s 2.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded on average, plus Spurs’ 1.0 for and 1.8 against, and both teams’ xG profiles pointing to chances at both ends, another high‑scoring afternoon looks more likely than an under 2.5 grind.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Liverpool
Shots in last 5 matches
Tottenham
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 27.25, reflecting Liverpool’s habit of racking up attempts and Spurs’ tendency to allow them. Liverpool’s last three show 19 shots at Wolves, 18 at home to West Ham and 10 at Forest, while also limiting opponents to 4, 11 and 18 respectively. Tottenham have taken 12, 13 and 6 shots in their last three, but more tellingly have faced 9, 18 and 20. Those figures align neatly with Liverpool’s strong 2.328 xG per match and Spurs’ 1.558 xG conceded; a shots prediction in the high‑20s, driven largely by the home side, is consistent with the attacking and defensive patterns of both teams.

Final Prediction

Liverpool’s edge lies in almost every department: form, firepower, defensive record and underlying metrics all tilt heavily in their favour, justifying the 95.0% home‑win probability. Tottenham’s leaking back line and lack of clean sheets make Anfield an unforgiving destination. The key factor to watch will be whether Spurs can withstand Liverpool’s early pressure; if they buckle under the wave of shots and corners the data suggests, this could be another long afternoon for the visitors.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel