Premier League 2025-2026: Liverpool vs West Ham Prediction - 28 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Liverpool

Home Team
92%
VS

West Ham

Away Team
3%
Draw: 5%
Over 2.5: 58%
Under 2.5: 42%
Goal: 58%
No Goal: 42%
Expected Shots: 26.6

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 28 18 7 3 56 21 35 61
2 Man City 27 17 5 5 56 25 31 56
3 Aston Villa 27 15 6 6 38 28 10 51
4 Man United 27 13 9 5 48 37 11 48
5 Chelsea 27 12 9 6 48 31 17 45
6 Liverpool 27 13 6 8 42 35 7 45
7 Brentford 27 12 4 11 40 37 3 40
8 Bournemouth 27 9 11 7 43 45 -2 38
9 Everton 27 10 7 10 29 31 -2 37
10 Fulham 27 11 4 12 38 41 -3 37
11 Newcastle 27 10 6 11 38 39 -1 36
12 Sunderland 27 9 9 9 28 33 -5 36
13 Crystal Palace 27 9 8 10 29 32 -3 35
14 Brighton 27 8 10 9 36 34 2 34
15 Leeds 27 7 10 10 37 46 -9 31
16 Tottenham 27 7 8 12 37 41 -4 29
17 Nott'm Forest 27 7 6 14 25 39 -14 27
18 West Ham 27 6 7 14 32 49 -17 25
19 Burnley 27 4 7 16 29 52 -23 19
20 Wolves 28 1 7 20 18 51 -33 10

Recent Trends

Liverpool W W L W L

  • Last Match: W vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Sunderland (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Newcastle (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Bournemouth (Goals: 2 - 3)

West Ham D D W L W

  • Last Match: D vs Bournemouth (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Man United (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Burnley (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Chelsea (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Sunderland (Goals: 3 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Liverpool

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.22
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.84
# Clean Sheets: 2

West Ham

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.38
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.40
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Liverpool are strong favourites here, with a 92.0% probability of taking all three points against West Ham’s slim 3.0% chance, and a 5.0% likelihood of a draw. The model points to a home win and an over 2.5 goals prediction, with Liverpool trying to strengthen their 6th place push towards the Champions League spots, while 18th‑placed West Ham are fighting to escape the relegation zone.

Match Analysis

Liverpool come in on the back of two gritty 1-0 away wins at Nottingham Forest and Sunderland, either side of a narrow 2-1 home defeat to Manchester City. Those results underline a side that is creating plenty – they’ve averaged 2.222 expected goals for and only 0.836 against over their last five matches – but not always turning dominance into big scorelines. Importantly, they’ve kept two clean sheets in that spell, suggesting a reasonably solid platform at the back. West Ham’s recent run has been steadier than their league position suggests: a 2-0 win at Burnley and home draws with Manchester United (1-1) and Bournemouth (0-0). However, the underlying numbers are less kind. Over their last five games they’ve conceded an average of 2.0 goals per match, with opponents generating 2.396 expected goals against them. Their own attack is more modest at 1.2 goals and 1.376 xG per game, pointing to a side that often sits deep and struggles to keep the door shut for 90 minutes.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Liverpool
Goals in last 5 matches
West Ham
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards goals here, with a 58.0% probability of over 2.5 and an over 2.5 prediction as the expected outcome. Only one of Liverpool’s last three matches has gone over 2.5 goals (the 1-2 loss to Man City), while all three of West Ham’s recent fixtures have finished under 2.5. Even so, Liverpool’s higher averages of 1.6 goals scored and 2.222 xG for, matched against West Ham’s fragile defence, suggest the game is more likely to tilt away from a tight under 2.5 pattern.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Liverpool
Shots in last 5 matches
West Ham
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 26.6, in line with how these teams have been playing. Liverpool’s last three games have seen 28, 34 and 32 shots in total, while West Ham’s have produced 30, 16 and 24. That volume marries up with Liverpool’s strong xG numbers, and the shots prediction reflects a match where the hosts should generate the bulk of attempts, with West Ham relying on fewer, more selective efforts.

Final Prediction

Liverpool’s superior form, stronger underlying numbers and home advantage give them a clear edge over a West Ham side leaking chances and stuck in 18th. The key factor to watch will be how long West Ham can resist Liverpool’s pressure; if the early waves break through, the scoreline and the tempo could run away from the visitors.

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