Premier League 2025-2026: Man City vs Brentford Prediction - 9 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Man City

Home Team
77%
VS

Brentford

Away Team
10%
Draw: 12%
Over 2.5: 60%
Under 2.5: 40%
Goal: 61%
No Goal: 39%
Expected Corners: 10.1
Expected Shots: 24.5
Expected Spread: +1.4

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 35 23 7 5 67 26 41 76
2 Man City 34 21 8 5 69 32 37 71
3 Man United 35 18 10 7 63 48 15 64
4 Liverpool 35 17 7 11 59 47 12 58
5 Aston Villa 35 17 7 11 48 44 4 58
6 Bournemouth 35 12 16 7 55 52 3 52
7 Brentford 35 14 9 12 52 46 6 51
8 Brighton 35 13 11 11 49 42 7 50
9 Chelsea 35 13 9 13 54 48 6 48
10 Everton 35 13 9 13 44 44 0 48
11 Fulham 35 14 6 15 44 49 -5 48
12 Sunderland 35 12 11 12 37 46 -9 47
13 Newcastle 35 13 6 16 49 51 -2 45
14 Leeds 35 10 13 12 47 52 -5 43
15 Crystal Palace 34 11 10 13 36 42 -6 43
16 Nott'm Forest 35 11 9 15 44 46 -2 42
17 Tottenham 35 9 10 16 45 54 -9 37
18 West Ham 35 9 9 17 42 61 -19 36
19 Burnley 35 4 8 23 35 71 -36 20
20 Wolves 35 3 9 23 25 63 -38 18

Recent Trends

Man City D W W W D

  • Last Match: D vs Everton (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Burnley (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Arsenal (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Chelsea (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs West Ham (Goals: 1 - 1)

Brentford W L D D D

  • Last Match: W vs West Ham (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Man United (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Fulham (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Everton (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Leeds (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Man City

xG (avg) 2.07
xGA (avg) 1.13
Clean Sheets 2

Brentford

xG (avg) 1.27
xGA (avg) 1.75
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

Manchester City are clear favourites at home, with a 77.0% probability of victory against a Brentford side given just a 10.0% chance, and a 12.0% likelihood of a draw. The model points to a City win with an expected goal spread of +1.36 and leans towards an over 2.5 goals prediction at 60.0%. City come into this as 2nd in the Premier League on 71 points, while Brentford sit 7th with 51 points.

Match Analysis

City’s last three outings underline both their attacking power and occasional defensive looseness. They edged Arsenal 2-1 at home in a high‑stakes clash, ground out a 1-0 win away at Burnley despite dominating with 28 shots and 11 corners, and were held 3-3 at Everton in a wild game where they fired 21 shots. Over the last five matches, they are averaging 2.2 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded, backed up by 2.066 expected goals created and 1.126 expected goals allowed, plus two clean sheets – numbers that fit a title-chasing side. Brentford arrive from a strong 3-0 home win over West Ham, a narrow 2-1 defeat at Manchester United, and a tight 0-0 draw with Fulham. That run shows they can shut teams down – three clean sheets in their last five – but also that they ride a fine margin: 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded on average, with 1.274 xG for and a relatively high 1.746 xG against. Against a City attack that routinely pushes opponents back and piles up chances, that defensive xG profile is a concern.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Man City
Goals in last 5 matches
Brentford
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is favoured at 60.0%, and the recent scorelines support it. Two of City’s last three league games (3-3 vs Everton, 2-1 vs Arsenal) went over 2.5, with only the 1-0 at Burnley staying under. Brentford have had two of their last three end under 2.5 (3-0, 0-0, 1-2), but their averages of 1.6 scored and 1.4 conceded, combined with City’s 2.2 scored and strong xG numbers, point towards goals rather than a cagey contest.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Man City
Corners in last 5 matches
Brentford
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners for this match sit at 10.05, which fits both teams’ recent patterns. City racked up 9, 11 and 8 corners in their last three, regularly pinning opponents back and forcing blocks. Brentford’s games have produced 2, 8 and 9 corners for them, with opponents also getting a fair share, suggesting an open game. Given City’s territorial dominance and Brentford’s willingness to attack, the corners prediction of around 10 looks a realistic reflection of their front‑foot styles.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Man City
Shots in last 5 matches
Brentford
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.53, again matching what we’ve seen lately. City have taken 21, 28 and 15 shots in their last three, constantly peppering the opposition goal. Brentford have attempted 14, 12 and 13 shots, and also allowed similar totals. This shots prediction lines up neatly with City’s 2.066 xG per game and Brentford’s 1.274, suggesting a match where chances come regularly at both ends.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Man City wins by X goals. Negative = Brentford wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Man City vs Brentford with expected spread of +1.4
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Man City vs Brentford
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction of +1.36 in favour of the home side reflects City’s superior firepower and defensive record. Across their last three, City have a combined goal difference of +2 (6 scored, 4 conceded), while Brentford sit at +2 as well (4 scored, 2 conceded), but against a lower overall calibre of opposition. With City’s win probability at 77.0% and their stronger underlying numbers, the expected spread rightly leans towards a comfortable but not runaway home victory.

Final Prediction

City’s edge comes from sustained attacking pressure, higher xG, and a defence that generally limits clear chances, all underpinned by their position in a tight title race. Brentford’s resilience and recent clean sheets mean they can make it competitive, but their xG against suggests they may bend under City’s volume of shots and territory. Key factor to watch: whether Brentford can withstand City’s early onslaught of chances and corners, or if an early goal tilts the game heavily towards the champions‑elect.

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