Premier League 2025-2026: Man City vs Crystal Palace Prediction - 13 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Man City

Home Team
84%
VS

Crystal Palace

Away Team
7%
Draw: 9%
Over 2.5: 60%
Under 2.5: 40%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 10.1
Expected Shots: 25.6
Expected Spread: +1.8

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 36 24 7 5 68 26 42 79
2 Man City 35 22 8 5 72 32 40 74
3 Man United 36 18 11 7 63 48 15 65
4 Liverpool 36 17 8 11 60 48 12 59
5 Aston Villa 36 17 8 11 50 46 4 59
6 Bournemouth 36 13 16 7 56 52 4 55
7 Brighton 36 14 11 11 52 42 10 53
8 Brentford 36 14 9 13 52 49 3 51
9 Chelsea 36 13 10 13 55 49 6 49
10 Everton 36 13 10 13 46 46 0 49
11 Fulham 36 14 6 16 44 50 -6 48
12 Sunderland 36 12 12 12 37 46 -9 48
13 Newcastle 36 13 7 16 50 52 -2 46
14 Leeds 36 10 14 12 48 53 -5 44
15 Crystal Palace 35 11 11 13 38 44 -6 44
16 Nott'm Forest 36 11 10 15 45 47 -2 43
17 Tottenham 36 9 11 16 46 55 -9 38
18 West Ham 36 9 9 18 42 62 -20 36
19 Burnley 36 4 9 23 37 73 -36 21
20 Wolves 36 3 9 24 25 66 -41 18

Recent Trends

Man City W D W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Brentford (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Everton (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Burnley (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Arsenal (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Chelsea (Goals: 3 - 0)

Crystal Palace D L L D W

  • Last Match: D vs Everton (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Bournemouth (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Liverpool (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs West Ham (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Newcastle (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Man City

xG (avg) 2.73
xGA (avg) 1.15
Clean Sheets 3

Crystal Palace

xG (avg) 1.22
xGA (avg) 1.63
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Man City are strong favourites here, with an 84.0% probability of victory against a Crystal Palace side given just a 7.0% chance, and a 9.0% likelihood of a draw. Second in the table on 74 points and chasing leaders Arsenal, City are expected to be too powerful for 15th‑placed Palace, who sit on 44 points. The model points towards a high‑scoring afternoon as well, with an over 2.5 prediction at 60.0% and both teams to score rated at 56.0%.

Match Analysis

City arrive in typically dominant form. Across their last three matches they’ve beaten Brentford 3-0 at home, edged Burnley 1-0 away and shared a wild 3-3 draw at Everton. The pattern is clear: heavy territorial control and chance creation – 25 shots to 4 against Brentford, 28 to 9 at Burnley, and 21 to 14 at Everton – underlining an attack that’s humming. Over the last five games they’re averaging 2.4 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded, backed up by 2.726 expected goals created and just 1.152 allowed, plus three clean sheets in that stretch. Crystal Palace come in on a stickier run. A 2-2 home draw with Everton was preceded by back‑to‑back away defeats, 0-3 at Bournemouth and 1-3 at Liverpool. They’ve at least shown they can pose a threat, firing 21 shots against Everton and 14 at Anfield, but also looking brittle at the back, conceding three in both those away trips. Their last five games show a more modest profile: 1.2 goals scored, 1.8 conceded on average, with xG figures (1.222 for, 1.628 against) that suggest they’re slightly outgunned more often than not.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Man City
Goals in last 5 matches
Crystal Palace
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to an over 2.5 prediction at 60.0%, and recent form backs that up. Two of City’s last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (3-0 vs Brentford, 3-3 at Everton), while Palace have also seen two of their last three clear the line (2-2 vs Everton, 1-3 at Liverpool). With City averaging 2.4 scored and 0.8 conceded, Palace at 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded, and both sides’ xG numbers pointing to chances at either end, another game going over rather than under 2.5 looks more likely.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Man City
Corners in last 5 matches
Crystal Palace
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 10.08, which fits the recent data. City have racked up 10, 9 and 11 corners in their last three outings, while allowing just 2, 5 and 3 – typical of a dominant, front‑foot style. Palace have had more mixed numbers (5, 1 and 8 won; 10, 7 and 5 conceded), reflecting spells under pressure away from home. Given City’s tendency to pin teams back, the corners prediction of around ten predicted corners overall feels realistic.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Man City
Shots in last 5 matches
Crystal Palace
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 25.59, and both sides’ recent matches point in that direction. City alone have fired 25, 21 and 28 shots in their last three games, rarely dropping below the mid‑20s, while Palace have attempted 21, 7 and 14. That volume, coupled with City’s 2.726 xG per game and Palace’s 1.222, supports a shots prediction in the mid‑20s for expected shots overall, with the hosts likely accounting for the bulk.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Man City wins by X goals. Negative = Crystal Palace wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Man City vs Crystal Palace with expected spread of +1.8
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Man City vs Crystal Palace
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction has an expected spread of +1.77 in City’s favour, meaning they’re projected to win by roughly two goals. City’s last three results show a +3 goal difference vs Brentford, +0 at Everton and +1 at Burnley, while Palace are -1 vs Liverpool, -3 at Bournemouth and level vs Everton. With City’s attack significantly outperforming Palace’s and conceding fewer chances, that expected spread lines up neatly with the 84.0% home‑win probability.

Final Prediction

Man City’s blend of firepower, control and defensive solidity, combined with their title push from 2nd place, gives them a clear edge over mid‑table Palace. The key factor to watch will be how long Palace can resist City’s relentless shot and corner pressure – if the visitors crack early, the scoreline could quickly reflect the underlying numbers.

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