Premier League 2025-2026: Man City vs Newcastle Prediction - 21 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Man City

Home Team
69%
VS

Newcastle

Away Team
14%
Draw: 16%
Over 2.5: 52%
Under 2.5: 48%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Shots: 25.3

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 27 17 7 3 52 20 32 58
2 Man City 26 16 5 5 54 24 30 53
3 Aston Villa 26 15 5 6 37 27 10 50
4 Man United 26 12 9 5 47 37 10 45
5 Chelsea 26 12 8 6 47 30 17 44
6 Liverpool 26 12 6 8 41 35 6 42
7 Brentford 26 12 4 10 40 35 5 40
8 Everton 26 10 7 9 29 30 -1 37
9 Bournemouth 26 9 10 7 43 45 -2 37
10 Newcastle 26 10 6 10 37 37 0 36
11 Sunderland 26 9 9 8 27 30 -3 36
12 Fulham 26 10 4 12 35 40 -5 34
13 Crystal Palace 26 8 8 10 28 32 -4 32
14 Brighton 26 7 10 9 34 34 0 31
15 Leeds 26 7 9 10 36 45 -9 30
16 Tottenham 26 7 8 11 36 37 -1 29
17 Nott'm Forest 26 7 6 13 25 38 -13 27
18 West Ham 26 6 6 14 32 49 -17 24
19 Burnley 26 4 6 16 28 51 -23 18
20 Wolves 27 1 7 19 18 50 -32 10

Recent Trends

Man City W W D W L

  • Last Match: W vs Fulham (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Liverpool (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Tottenham (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Wolves (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Man United (Goals: 0 - 2)

Newcastle W L L L D

  • Last Match: W vs Tottenham (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Brentford (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Liverpool (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Aston Villa (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Wolves (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Man City

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.06
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.20
# Clean Sheets: 2

Newcastle

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.44
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.49
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Man City are clear favourites at home with a 69.0% win probability, compared to just 14.0% for Newcastle and a 16.0% chance of a draw. The model leans towards an over 2.5 prediction for goals (52.0%), suggesting a reasonably open game. In the table, City sit 2nd on 53 points, chasing leaders Arsenal, while Newcastle are 10th on 36 points and fighting to stay in the European race.

Match Analysis

City come into this with strong momentum: a 3-0 home win over Fulham, a 2-1 away victory at Liverpool, and a 2-2 draw at Tottenham. Those results show control in big games, with at least two goals scored in each of the last three. Over the last five matches, they average 2.0 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded, plus two clean sheets, underlining a side that is not only dominant with the ball but also increasingly solid at the back. Their xG numbers support the eye test: 2.064 expected goals for and just 1.196 against on average. Newcastle are more up and down: a statement 2-1 win away at Tottenham, but sandwiched between a 3-2 home defeat to Brentford and a 4-1 loss at Liverpool. All three of those games were high scoring, reflecting their balance between attacking threat and defensive vulnerability. Over their last five, they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, with only one clean sheet. Their xG profile (1.436 for, 1.49 against) suggests they create but also give up a similar volume of chances, a dangerous recipe away at the league’s most ruthless attack.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Man City
Goals in last 5 matches
Newcastle
Goals in last 5 matches
The model points to an over 2.5 prediction with a 52.0% probability. Two of City’s last three matches (the 2-1 at Liverpool and 2-2 at Spurs) went over 2.5 goals, while all three of Newcastle’s recent games (2-1, 2-3, 1-4) cleared that line. With City averaging 2.0 scored and 0.4 conceded, and Newcastle at 1.2 scored and 1.4 conceded, plus both teams’ xG figures hovering around or above two goals combined per game, the data slightly favours over rather than under 2.5.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Man City
Shots in last 5 matches
Newcastle
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this match is 25.3 in total, suggesting both goalkeepers will be worked. City’s last three games saw shot counts of 13-14, 17-15 and 15-12, consistently landing in the mid-to-high 20s overall. Newcastle’s recent outings produced 21-16, 16-11 and 8-17 shots, again right around that range. With both sides’ xG averages reflecting a steady flow of chances, a shots prediction in the mid-20s aligns closely with how these teams have been performing.

Final Prediction

City’s edge comes from their balance: a top-tier attack backed by a defence conceding just 0.4 goals per game over the last five, plus home advantage and stronger recent results. Newcastle have the tools to create chances, but their tendency to concede opportunities and goals makes this a daunting trip. A key factor to watch will be how Newcastle’s aggressive, corner-generating style copes with City’s control of territory and possession.

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