Premier League 2025-2026: Man City vs Nott'm Forest Prediction - 4 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Man City

Home Team
86%
VS

Nott'm Forest

Away Team
6%
Draw: 8%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Shots: 26.8

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 29 19 7 3 58 22 36 64
2 Man City 28 18 5 5 57 25 32 59
3 Man United 28 14 9 5 50 38 12 51
4 Aston Villa 28 15 6 7 38 30 8 51
5 Liverpool 28 14 6 8 47 37 10 48
6 Chelsea 28 12 9 7 49 33 16 45
7 Brentford 28 13 4 11 44 40 4 43
8 Everton 28 11 7 10 32 33 -1 40
9 Fulham 28 12 4 12 40 42 -2 40
10 Bournemouth 28 9 12 7 44 46 -2 39
11 Brighton 28 9 10 9 38 35 3 37
12 Sunderland 28 9 10 9 29 34 -5 37
13 Newcastle 28 10 6 12 40 42 -2 36
14 Crystal Palace 28 9 8 11 30 34 -4 35
15 Leeds 28 7 10 11 37 47 -10 31
16 Tottenham 28 7 8 13 38 43 -5 29
17 Nott'm Forest 28 7 6 15 26 41 -15 27
18 West Ham 28 6 7 15 34 54 -20 25
19 Burnley 28 4 7 17 32 56 -24 19
20 Wolves 29 2 7 20 20 51 -31 13

Recent Trends

Man City W W W W D

  • Last Match: W vs Leeds (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Newcastle (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Fulham (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Liverpool (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Tottenham (Goals: 2 - 2)

Nott'm Forest L L D L D

  • Last Match: L vs Brighton (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Liverpool (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Wolves (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Leeds (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Man City

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.79
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.09
# Clean Sheets: 2

Nott'm Forest

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.21
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.95
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Manchester City are strong favourites here, with an 86.0% probability of victory against a Nott'm Forest side given just a 6.0% chance, and an 8.0% likelihood of a draw. Second in the table on 59 points and chasing leaders Arsenal, City are expected to claim a routine home win over 17th-placed Forest, who are only two points above the relegation zone. The game leans towards an over 2.5 prediction, with a 50.0% chance of at least three goals.

Match Analysis

City come into this on a three-match winning run, edging Leeds 1-0 away before back-to-back home victories over Newcastle (2-1) and Fulham (3-0). Even when not fully dominant on the shot count – they actually allowed as many or more efforts in all three fixtures – their control in both boxes has been evident. Over the last five games they have averaged 1.8 goals scored and just 0.6 conceded, with 1.794 expected goals created and 1.094 conceded, plus two clean sheets. That balance of steady attacking production and tight defending underpins their title push. Forest’s form is more fragile: defeat at Brighton (1-2) and a narrow home loss to Liverpool (0-1) were followed by a frustrating 0-0 draw with bottom club Wolves. The numbers tell a story of a side that can compete but struggles to turn pressure into points. They’ve averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over their last five, with 1.21 xG for and a worrying 1.95 xG against, and only one clean sheet. Strong shot and corner counts at home to Liverpool (18 shots, 7 corners) and Wolves (35 shots, 8 corners) show they can be proactive, but their defensive vulnerability is a real concern heading to the Etihad.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Man City
Goals in last 5 matches
Nott'm Forest
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards an over 2.5 prediction, with a 50.0% probability that the game produces at least three goals. Two of City’s last three league matches have gone over 2.5 (2-1 vs Newcastle, 3-0 vs Fulham), with only the 1-0 at Leeds falling under. Forest have had a more mixed profile: 1-2 at Brighton and 0-1 vs Liverpool went under 2.5, while the 0-0 vs Wolves also stayed under, but their average of 1.4 scored and 1.8 conceded, combined with their 1.95 xG against, suggests they tend to be involved in open games – a dynamic that usually suits City at home.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Man City
Shots in last 5 matches
Nott'm Forest
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total shots is 26.77, which fits the pattern of both sides’ recent outings. City’s last three have seen combined shot counts of 28, 28 and 27, while Forest’s have produced 27, 28 and a remarkable 42 efforts in that Wolves stalemate. Given City’s average xG of 1.794 and Forest’s 1.21, a shots prediction around 27 attempts overall reflects two teams willing to pull the trigger, even if the hosts are expected to be the more clinical.

Final Prediction

City’s superior form, stronger defensive record, and far higher league position give them a clear edge, which is reflected in the 86.0% win probability. Forest’s openness and high xG against suggest they may struggle to contain City’s attack over 90 minutes. A key factor to watch will be how long Forest can stay organised without conceding; if City score early, the contest may quickly tilt towards a comfortable home win.

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